Will Montana State’s methodical half-court game be enough to dismantle Idaho’s transition attack? Bash dives into the situational spots and the 147.5 total to find the sharpest prediction for tonight’s game in Bozeman.
The Setup: Idaho at Montana State
Montana State’s laying 3.5 at home against Idaho on Thursday night, and if you’re looking at the records and thinking this is a coin flip, you’re missing what the numbers are screaming at you. The Bobcats sit at 4-6 while the Vandals roll in at 6-3, but here’s the thing—records lie, efficiency doesn’t. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, Montana State holds a decisive defensive edge that matters more than any win-loss column in early February. The Bobcats rank 119th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 105.2, while Idaho checks in at 201st with a 108.7 mark. That’s not a marginal difference—that’s the gap between getting stops when you need them and watching opposing guards carve you up. The market landed on 3.5 for a reason, and it’s not because Vegas is feeling generous to the home team.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Idaho at Montana State
Date: February 5, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Worthington Arena, Bozeman, MT
Spread: Montana State -3.5
Total: 146.5 (Bovada) / 147.5 (DraftKings)
Moneyline: Montana State -170, Idaho +145
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the spread. Montana State at -3.5 isn’t some massive home chalk—it’s a modest number that respects Idaho’s offensive firepower while acknowledging the Bobcats’ home-court advantage and defensive superiority. The adjusted efficiency numbers paint a picture that’s tighter than the records suggest. Montana State’s adjusted net rating sits at 4.0, ranking 128th nationally, while Idaho checks in at 3.5 and 132nd. We’re talking about teams separated by half a point in adjusted efficiency—this is Big Sky basketball at its most competitive.
The total sitting at 146.5-147.5 is where things get interesting. Idaho plays at a pace ranked 157th nationally at 69.2 possessions per game, while Montana State slows things down even further at 65.7 possessions, ranking 275th. These aren’t run-and-gun squads. But here’s the wrinkle—both teams can score when they execute. Idaho ranks 89th in offensive rating at 118.4, while Montana State sits 112th at 116.3. The raw scoring averages show Idaho at 81.7 points per game and Montana State at 79.2, but those numbers don’t account for opponent strength. The market’s essentially projecting a game in the low-to-mid 70s for both sides, which tracks with the tempo and efficiency profiles. This isn’t a number that screams value either way—it’s a fair assessment of two teams that can put points on the board but prefer to grind possessions.
Idaho Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Vandals come in with legitimate offensive credentials. That 56.1% effective field goal percentage ranks 63rd nationally, and the three-point shooting at 37.0% (60th) gives them the ability to stretch defenses. Kristian Gonzalez leads the way at 18.0 points per game, while Jackson Rasmussen provides a versatile scoring threat at 14.8 points. The offensive rating of 118.4 tells you they’re efficient when they get quality looks.
But here’s where Idaho’s profile gets concerning—they can’t defend a lick, and they can’t rebound. That 27.9% offensive rebounding rate ranks 296th nationally, meaning they’re one-and-done on most possessions. The defensive numbers are mediocre across the board: 142nd in opponent field goal percentage at 42.6%, and they rank 321st in steals per game at just 5.4. They don’t generate turnovers, they don’t block shots (343rd at 1.8 per game), and they give up 72.0 points per contest. The adjusted defensive rating of 108.7 ranking 201st confirms what the raw numbers suggest—this is a team that needs to outscore you because they’re not stopping anyone consistently.
Montana State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Bobcats’ 4-6 record is misleading when you examine how they actually play basketball. Montana State ranks 47th nationally in effective field goal percentage at 56.8%, and they’re shooting 48.3% from the field overall (66th). Patrick McMahon (14.2 PPG), Davian Brown (14.4 PPG), and Jed Miller (12.9 PPG) give them balanced scoring, and they’re converting at the rim with 322 points in the paint through ten games.
The defensive profile is what separates Montana State from Idaho. That 105.2 adjusted defensive efficiency ranking 119th is solid, and they rank 54th nationally in opponent three-point percentage at just 29.3%. They’re not elite defensively, but they’re competent—they force 7.5 steals per game (158th) and contest shots effectively. The 102.3 defensive rating (128th) shows they’re getting stops when possessions matter. The concern? They play at a crawl (275th in pace), and they’re not a dominant rebounding team at 310th nationally with 33.1 boards per game. They need to control tempo and execute in the halfcourt.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Idaho can exploit Montana State’s slower pace and methodical approach, or if the Bobcats can impose their defensive will and force the Vandals into contested looks. The head-to-head history tilts slightly toward Idaho—they won the January meeting 92-89, and they’ve taken three of the last four overall. But that January game was in Moscow, and Worthington Arena is a different animal.
The three-point shooting battle matters here. Idaho ranks 60th nationally at 37.0% from deep, while Montana State sits 83rd at 36.3%. But the Bobcats defend the arc at an elite level (54th in opponent three-point percentage), which could neutralize Idaho’s perimeter advantage. If Montana State can force Idaho into contested twos and limit transition opportunities, the Vandals’ offensive rating takes a hit.
The rebounding edge is minimal—both teams struggle on the glass—but Montana State’s slight advantage in offensive rebounding percentage (264th vs. 296th) could generate extra possessions in a low-possession game. Idaho’s inability to generate steals (321st) or blocks (343rd) means Montana State should get clean looks in halfcourt sets. The Bobcats’ 169 points off turnovers compared to Idaho’s 119 suggests they’re better at capitalizing on mistakes.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 3.5 with Montana State, and I’m not overthinking this. The defensive gap is real, the home-court advantage in Bozeman is legitimate, and Idaho’s inability to get stops or generate second chances is a fatal flaw in a grind-it-out Big Sky game. The Bobcats rank 119th in adjusted defensive efficiency while Idaho sits 201st—that’s the difference between competent defense and a sieve. Montana State’s 29.3% opponent three-point percentage (54th nationally) should limit Idaho’s most dangerous weapon, and in a game projected for 70-something possessions, every defensive stop magnifies.
The 4-6 record scares some people off Montana State, but efficiency matters more than wins in February. Give me the Bobcats to win by 6-8 in a game that stays in the 140s total. Montana State -3.5 is the play.
