The Portland Trail Blazers host the Memphis Grizzlies for the second half of a back-to-back set at Moda Center. Our analytical preview breaks down the impact of Memphis’ seismic trade of Jaren Jackson Jr. and why the Blazers remain the best bet given the Grizzlies’ depleted interior.
The Setup: Grizzlies at Trail Blazers
Portland’s laying 8.5 points at home Saturday night against a Memphis squad they just demolished 135-115 the night before. The Blazers snapped a six-game skid in that one, and now the market’s asking if they can do it again—and cover a bigger number. This is the second half of a back-to-back set at Moda Center, and the spread reflects what happens when you catch a team on consecutive nights: the favorite gets steeper, the underdog gets rest questions, and the total stays elevated at 235.5. Memphis sits at 20-30 and 11th in the West. Portland’s 24-28 and clinging to 10th. The Grizzlies are missing Ja Morant, Zach Edey, and Brandon Clarke. The Blazers got Jerami Grant going for 23 last night and Jrue Holiday distributing at a high level. The line exists because Portland just proved they can handle this version of Memphis, and the market’s betting they’ll do it again with home court and rest on their side.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers
Date: Saturday, February 7, 2026
Time: 10:00 ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
TV: Home: KUNP 16, BlazerVision | Away: NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN SE
Spread: Portland Trail Blazers -8.5 (-110) | Memphis Grizzlies +8.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 235.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Portland -370 | Memphis +278
Why This Line Exists
The market’s pricing in two factors: Friday’s blowout result and Memphis playing without their three most important interior presences. Portland won by 20 last night, and the Grizzlies showed nothing defensively that suggests they can tighten this up 24 hours later. Memphis is averaging 115.3 points per game on the season, but they’re doing it with Ty Jerome shooting 61.1% from the field and 43.8% from three. That’s elite efficiency, but Jerome’s playing heavy minutes because Morant’s out with a UCL sprain. Zach Edey, who was averaging 11.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks, is sidelined with an ankle injury. Brandon Clarke remains out with a calf issue. That’s three rotation pieces gone, and it shows in Memphis’ -2.1 plus/minus on the season.
Portland’s sitting at 115.6 points per game—basically identical scoring output—but they’re at home where they’re 14-13 compared to Memphis’ 9-14 road mark. The Blazers pulled down 14.0 offensive rebounds per game this season compared to Memphis’ 12.0, and that second-chance edge matters when you’re playing a team that just got worked on the glass the night before. The 8.5-point spread reflects Portland’s ability to control tempo at home and Memphis’ lack of size and depth to counter it. The total at 235.5 is elevated because both teams average over 115 per game and neither plays elite defense. Memphis allows points, Portland allows points, and Friday’s game hit 250 combined. The market’s expecting another shootout, just with a wider margin.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Grizzlies are playing without their backbone. Morant’s out, which shifts the offense entirely to Jerome and Santi Aldama. Jerome’s having a career year at 22.3 points and 7.0 assists per game, but he’s not a primary creator in the half-court the way Morant is. Aldama’s contributing 14.0 points and 6.7 rebounds, but he’s a stretch four who doesn’t replace what Edey and Clarke provide defensively. Cedric Coward’s averaging 13.6 points and 6.3 rebounds, but he’s not a rim protector either. Memphis is shooting 45.7% from the field and 34.9% from three, which are solid marks, but those percentages don’t hold up when you’re playing back-to-backs on the road without your anchor pieces.
Memphis commits just 15.3 turnovers per game compared to Portland’s 17.1, and they dish 28.9 assists compared to Portland’s 24.4. That’s ball movement and discipline, but it didn’t matter Friday when Portland ran them off the floor. The Grizzlies’ -2.1 plus/minus tells you they’re losing close games and getting blown out in others. They’re 20-30 for a reason, and playing consecutive nights in Portland without Morant, Edey, or Clarke is a scheduling nightmare.
Portland Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland’s built around Deni Avdija, who’s averaging 25.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game. He’s the primary creator, and he’s flanked by Shaedon Sharpe at 21.4 points per game and Jerami Grant at 18.8 points. Grant went for 23 Friday, and if he’s rolling again Saturday, Memphis doesn’t have the personnel to slow him down. Jrue Holiday’s distributing at 6.6 assists per game and providing veteran stability, which matters in a spot like this where Portland needs to close out a vulnerable opponent.
The Blazers shoot 45.0% from the field and 33.7% from three, which are slightly below Memphis’ marks, but they dominate the offensive glass at 14.0 offensive rebounds per game. That’s where they punish teams—second chances, extra possessions, and wearing down smaller lineups. Portland’s -2.4 plus/minus is worse than Memphis’, but they’re 14-13 at home and just snapped a six-game losing streak. That’s a team with confidence back, and they’re facing a Memphis squad that has no answer for their size or pace.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the glass. Portland’s averaging 14.0 offensive rebounds per game compared to Memphis’ 12.0, and the Grizzlies don’t have Edey or Clarke to protect the rim or clean up defensively. Memphis is giving up second-chance points, and Portland’s going to exploit that every possession. The Blazers’ 8.1 steals and 4.9 blocks per game compared to Memphis’ 7.9 steals and 5.0 blocks means the defensive activity is nearly identical, but Portland’s doing it at home with size advantages across the board.
Memphis turns it over less—15.3 per game compared to Portland’s 17.1—but that discipline didn’t help them Friday when they got outscored by 20. The Grizzlies’ ball movement is elite at 28.9 assists per game, but they’re running sets without their best playmaker in Morant and their best finisher in Edey. Portland’s assist numbers are lower at 24.4 per game, but they’re getting easy buckets in transition and off offensive rebounds, which don’t require elaborate setups.
The total at 235.5 assumes both teams push pace and neither plays defense. Friday’s game hit 250 combined, and there’s no reason to expect Memphis to tighten up defensively on zero rest. Portland’s going to run, Memphis is going to try to keep up, and the Blazers have the depth and home court to pull away late.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 8.5 with Portland. Memphis is playing without Morant, Edey, and Clarke, and they just got blown out by 20 in this building less than 24 hours ago. Portland’s 14-13 at home, they’ve got size and rebounding advantages, and they’re facing a Grizzlies team that has no rim protection and no rest. The spread’s steep, but it’s justified. Memphis is 20-30 and playing on the second night of a back-to-back on the road. Portland’s going to control the glass, push transition, and pull away in the second half when Memphis’ legs give out.
The risk is Memphis’ shooting—if Jerome and Aldama get hot from three, they can keep this within single digits. But the Grizzlies’ 34.9% three-point shooting isn’t elite, and they’re not built to win shootouts without their best players. Portland’s got the roster, the rest, and the revenge factor after snapping their losing streak. This line’s a gift.
BASH’S BEST BET: Portland Trail Blazers -8.5 for 2 units.
