Michigan is 11-1 in Big Ten play and looks virtually untouchable, but they’re walking into a hornet’s nest as nearly double-digit favorites. We’re digging into the point spread to see if Dusty May’s squad is the best bet to silence the Schottenstein Center for the second year in a row.
The Setup: Michigan at Ohio State
Michigan’s laying 9.5 points at the Schottenstein Center on Sunday afternoon, and if you’re looking at this as just another Big Ten road game, you’re missing the entire picture. The Wolverines are 8-0, sitting at #1 in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com, and they already beat Ohio State by 12 points three weeks ago in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes are a respectable 7-1, but here’s the thing—this isn’t a rivalry game where you throw out the numbers. This is a talent and efficiency mismatch that the market has actually undervalued. Michigan’s adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 88.0, ranking first nationally, while their adjusted offensive efficiency checks in at 124.2, good for sixth. Ohio State? They’re 44th offensively and 52nd defensively in those same metrics. When you’re getting a 36.2 adjusted net efficiency rating against a 15.6, laying less than double digits feels like a gift.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Michigan @ Ohio State
Date: February 8, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Schottenstein Center, Columbus, OH
Spread: Michigan -9.5
Total: 159.5
Moneyline: Michigan -520 / Ohio State +390
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk about why this line is sitting at 9.5 and not closer to 13 or 14. The market is giving Ohio State home court credit—fair enough—and accounting for the fact that these teams just played 15 days ago. But here’s where I think the oddsmakers are being too generous to the Buckeyes: Michigan’s defensive dominance isn’t a small sample size fluke. They’re holding opponents to 34.6% from the field, second nationally, and their 88.5 defensive rating in real games backs up that elite adjusted number. Ohio State’s allowing 41.8% from the field and ranks 115th in opponent field goal percentage. That’s not a typo.
The pace factor matters here too. Michigan plays at 71.9 possessions per game while Ohio State sits at 70.5—both teams in that methodical Big Ten range. This isn’t going to be a track meet that gets to 170 points, but with Michigan’s offensive rating of 125.7 and their ability to dominate the glass (45.8 rebounds per game, second nationally), they’re going to get quality looks in the halfcourt. The Wolverines shot 52.8% from the field this season, fifth in the country, and their 61.0% effective field goal percentage ties them with Ohio State at seventh nationally. But Michigan does it on both ends. That’s the separator.
The market landed at 9.5 because of recency bias and home court, but the efficiency gap suggests this should be closer to two possessions. I’m not saying Ohio State can’t keep it close—Bruce Thornton is a legitimate star averaging 20.1 points per game—but the Wolverines have the defensive personnel to make his life miserable.
Michigan Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
This Michigan team is built differently than most elite college basketball squads. They don’t rely on one superstar; they overwhelm you with balance and defensive intensity. Yaxel Lendeborg leads the way at 15.8 points per game, but Morez Johnson Jr. adds 14.2, and both Roddy Gayle Jr. and Trey McKenney chip in 11.2 apiece. That’s four guys in double figures, and it makes them incredibly difficult to game plan against.
The rebounding dominance is real. Aday Mara pulls down 8.9 boards per game (52nd nationally) while Lendeborg adds 7.6. When you’re getting 45.8 rebounds per game as a team, you’re controlling possessions and limiting second-chance opportunities for opponents. Michigan also ranks third nationally with 20.8 assists per game, which tells you they’re not just talented—they’re playing the right way.
Defensively, this is where Michigan separates from the pack. That 88.0 adjusted defensive efficiency is elite, and their 6.4 blocks per game (seventh nationally) shows they protect the rim. They’re holding opponents to 30.0% from three, and when you combine that perimeter defense with their interior presence, you’re looking at a team that doesn’t give up easy buckets.
Ohio State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Don’t get it twisted—Ohio State can score. They’re putting up 88.4 points per game and shooting 53.0% from the field, third nationally. Bruce Thornton is the engine, averaging 20.1 points and 4.0 assists, and he’s got help. Christoph Tilly adds 14.1 points, John Mobley Jr. contributes 14.0, and Devin Royal chips in 13.4. That’s four double-figure scorers who can all create offense.
The Buckeyes’ 65.4% true shooting percentage ranks fifth nationally, and their 61.0% effective field goal percentage matches Michigan’s. They’re efficient when they get their looks, and they’re excellent at defending the three-point line, holding opponents to just 26.7% (15th nationally). That perimeter defense has been their calling card.
But here’s the problem: Ohio State’s interior defense is shaky. They’re blocking just 1.5 shots per game (358th nationally), and Michigan lives in the paint with 346 points scored there through eight games. The Buckeyes also don’t rebound particularly well, averaging just 37.2 boards per game compared to Michigan’s 45.8. When you’re giving up offensive boards and second-chance points to a team this efficient, you’re playing with fire.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to Michigan’s ability to dominate the paint and control the glass. Ohio State’s lack of rim protection and interior presence is a massive problem against a Michigan frontcourt featuring Lendeborg, Johnson Jr., and Mara. The Wolverines scored 346 points in the paint through eight games, and they’re going to attack Tilly and the Ohio State bigs relentlessly.
The other key factor is turnover margin. Michigan’s giving the ball away 13.4 times per game (266th nationally), which isn’t great, but Ohio State’s only forcing 5.1 steals per game (328th). The Buckeyes aren’t a chaos-creating defensive team, and that plays right into Michigan’s hands. When you let Michigan run their offense in the halfcourt, they’re shooting 52.8% from the field and getting quality looks.
Bruce Thornton is going to get his points—he’s too good not to—but can the rest of Ohio State’s offense keep pace when Michigan’s locking in defensively? The Wolverines held the Buckeyes to 62 points in their first meeting, and Ohio State’s 98.0 defensive rating suggests they’re going to struggle to get stops consistently.
The pace will be controlled, the possessions will matter, and Michigan’s efficiency advantage on both ends should translate to a comfortable win. Ohio State needs to shoot lights out from three and force Michigan into uncharacteristic turnovers. That’s a lot to ask.
Bash’s Best Bet
Michigan -9.5
I’m laying the points with the Wolverines, and I’m doing it with confidence. This isn’t a gut feel or a rivalry angle—it’s pure efficiency and matchup analysis. Michigan is the better team on both ends of the floor, they already beat Ohio State by 12 at home, and now they’re getting a Buckeyes squad that can’t protect the rim or control the glass. The 36.2 adjusted net efficiency versus 15.6 tells you everything you need to know.
Ohio State will make some runs, Thornton will have his moments, but Michigan’s going to grind them down over 40 minutes. The Wolverines are playing championship-level basketball right now, and 9.5 points doesn’t reflect the true gap between these teams. Give me Michigan to cover, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win by 15-plus.
