The AAC-leading Tulsa Golden Hurricane travel to Tampa to face the South Florida Bulls in a high-stakes conference rematch. Our analytical preview breaks down the efficiency gap and provides an ATS pick based on Tulsa’s top-20 adjusted offensive rating and USF’s defensive vulnerabilities.
The Setup: Tulsa at South Florida
South Florida’s laying 3.5 to 4 points at home against Tulsa, and something doesn’t smell right here. The Golden Hurricane roll into Tampa with an 8-1 record and a resume that screams legitimacy, while USF sits at 5-4 looking like a team that can’t decide whether it wants to score 109 or give up 79 on any given night. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread feels light for the home team—until you realize Tulsa’s adjusted metrics paint the picture of a legitimately dangerous squad that’s being undervalued by the market. The Golden Hurricane rank 16th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 121.8, and while South Florida’s got home court in the Yuengling Center, their defensive numbers tell a story the spread isn’t fully accounting for.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Tulsa (8-1) @ South Florida (5-4)
Date: February 8, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Yuengling Center, Tampa, FL
Spread: South Florida -3.5 to -4
Total: 171.5
Moneyline: South Florida -175, Tulsa +150
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market’s giving South Florida home court value and calling it a day, but let’s talk about what the efficiency data actually tells us. Tulsa checks in at 15.1 in adjusted net efficiency, ranking 41st nationally, while USF sits at 14.1 and 46th. We’re talking about teams separated by one net efficiency point in the adjusted metrics—essentially a coin flip when you account for the margin of error. The Golden Hurricane’s adjusted defensive rating of 106.7 ranks 150th, which sounds mediocre until you compare it to South Florida’s 101.8 that ranks 60th. That’s real separation on that end.
Here’s where it gets interesting: South Florida’s raw defensive rating sits at 115.2, ranking 313th nationally. That’s not a typo. While their adjusted number suggests they’ve played a tougher schedule than their results indicate, they’re still giving up 80.1 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot 44.4% from the field and 36.1% from three. Tulsa’s offensive rating of 128.0 ranks 28th nationally, and their true shooting percentage of 61.2% ranks 34th. This is an efficient offense getting points at home-dog value against a defense that’s proven vulnerable all season.
The total at 171.5 makes perfect sense. Both teams rank in the top 32 nationally in offensive rating, and the pace metrics—Tulsa at 68.4 possessions per game and USF at 67.1—suggest we’re looking at around 135 total possessions. Apply the efficiency numbers, and you’re staring at a number right in this neighborhood.
Tulsa Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Golden Hurricane aren’t just winning—they’re winning efficiently. That 121.8 adjusted offensive efficiency ranking 16th nationally isn’t a fluke built on cupcakes. They’re taking care of the basketball with just 9.9 turnovers per game, ranking 29th in the country, and their turnover ratio of 0.1 ranks 17th. This is a disciplined offensive team that doesn’t beat itself.
David Green leads the way at 14.6 points per game, but the real engine here is Tylen Riley at point guard. He’s putting up 13.1 points and 3.8 assists per game, ranking 207th nationally in assists, and he’s orchestrating an offense that shoots 37.8% from three (36th nationally) and posts an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% (51st). Miles Barnstable adds 14.3 points and provides secondary ball-handling, giving Tulsa multiple creators who can operate in the half-court.
The concern? Defensive athleticism. Tulsa ranks 270th in steals per game at just 6.1 and 299th in blocks at 2.6. They’re not generating havoc, which means against a South Florida team that thrives in transition with 131 fast break points, they’ll need to be disciplined in getting back and protecting the rim.
South Florida Breakdown: The Counterpoint
South Florida can absolutely score. They’re putting up 89.4 points per game, ranking 22nd nationally, and their offensive rating of 127.4 ranks 32nd. CJ Brown runs the show with 5.2 assists per game (64th nationally), and he’s got weapons around him. Josh Omojafo leads the team at 14.7 points per game, while Izaiyah Nelson controls the glass at 9.3 rebounds per game, ranking 32nd nationally.
The Bulls generate offense through aggression—they rank 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.5%, they force turnovers with 10.0 steals per game (24th nationally), and they’ve scored 197 points off turnovers this season. When they’re clicking, they’re overwhelming teams with second-chance opportunities and transition buckets.
But here’s the problem: they can’t guard anybody. That 115.2 defensive rating ranking 313th isn’t just bad—it’s catastrophic for a team with NCAA Tournament aspirations. They’re allowing 80.1 points per game and giving up 36.1% from three, ranking 306th in opponent three-point percentage. Against an efficient Tulsa offense that takes care of the ball and shoots it well from deep, those defensive leaks become gaping holes.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether South Florida can generate enough chaos to disrupt Tulsa’s offensive rhythm. The Bulls need to press, trap, and force the Golden Hurricane into uncomfortable possessions where their 270th-ranked steal rate becomes a factor. If this turns into a half-court game where Tulsa can execute their offense cleanly, the visitors have a significant advantage.
The recent head-to-head history matters here. South Florida won 93-78 at Tulsa earlier this season, which explains some of the market confidence in the home team. But that game featured 171 combined points—right at this total—and Tulsa’s had time to adjust to what USF showed them defensively.
The key individual matchup is CJ Brown against Tulsa’s perimeter defense. If Brown can get into the paint and create for Nelson on the glass and the shooters on the perimeter, South Florida’s offensive rebounding (36.5%) can overwhelm Tulsa’s mediocre defensive glass (32.2% defensive rebounding rate). But if Tulsa can keep Brown in front and limit second chances, their superior half-court execution should prevail.
The pace will be critical. Both teams play in the high 60s in possessions per game, so we’re not looking at a track meet. That favors Tulsa’s structured offense over South Florida’s chaos-creation style.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Tulsa +4 and feeling good about it. The adjusted efficiency numbers suggest these teams are essentially even, and we’re getting the better offensive team as a home dog. Tulsa’s 121.8 adjusted offensive efficiency ranking 16th nationally is the best number on the floor, and South Florida’s defensive issues—313th in raw defensive rating—give the Golden Hurricane multiple paths to victory.
The 8-1 record isn’t fool’s gold. Tulsa just beat Memphis, handled Wichita State, and won at Rice. They’re battle-tested and efficient. Getting four points with a team that ranks in the top 50 in adjusted net efficiency against a defense that can’t stop anybody? That’s value.
I’ll also lean Over 171.5. Both teams rank in the top 32 in offensive rating, South Florida can’t guard, and the first meeting produced 171 points exactly. The efficiency metrics and pace data point to a game in the mid-170s, and I’ll take the over in a spot where both teams have proven they can score.
