The Toronto Raptors look to solidify their Eastern Conference standing as they host a depleted Indiana Pacers squad at Scotiabank Arena. Will the heavy home favorite cover, or is there a back-door prediction brewing for the road underdogs?
Toronto is laying 8.5 at home against an Indiana team that’s 3-21 on the road and missing key rotation pieces. The Raptors are 31-22 and sitting fifth in the East, while the Pacers are 13-39 and effectively done for the season. But here’s what matters: Indiana’s 110.7 points per game and 44.7% shooting suggest they can still generate offense when Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard have the ball. Toronto’s 114.0 points per game and 47.4% shooting give them a clear efficiency edge, but the spread asks them to win by nine in a game where both teams push tempo. The line exists because the market sees a talent gap and a motivation gap. The question is whether that gap is wide enough to justify laying nearly double digits against a team that can still score.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors
Date & Time: Sunday, February 8, 2026, 3:00 ET
Location: Scotiabank Arena
TV: Home: Sportsnet | Away: FanDuel SN IN, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Toronto Raptors -8.5 (-110) | Indiana Pacers +8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Toronto Raptors -333 | Indiana Pacers +259
- Total: 225.0 (Over -110 | Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on 8.5 because Toronto holds advantages in nearly every efficiency category. The Raptors average 3.3 more points per game, shoot 2.7% better from the field, and post a plus/minus of +1.6 compared to Indiana’s -7.7. Toronto also averages 3.6 more assists per game, which signals better ball movement and shot creation. The Pacers are 3-21 on the road, and that record tells you everything about their ability to compete away from home. They’re missing Tyrese Haliburton for the season, Obi Toppin is out and not expected back before the All-Star break, and Ivica Zubac hasn’t been cleared to play after the recent trade.
But the line also reflects that Indiana can still score. They put up 110.7 per game with Siakam averaging 23.7 points on 48.2% shooting and Nembhard running the offense at 17.4 points and 7.5 assists per game. The Pacers shoot 34.5% from three, which is actually better than Toronto’s 34.4%. The total sits at 225.0 because both teams score in the 110-114 range, and neither defense is elite. Toronto generates 8.5 steals per game compared to Indiana’s 7.4, but the Pacers still average 14.2 turnovers, which isn’t catastrophic. The spread asks Toronto to win by nine because the talent gap is real, but the efficiency gap isn’t massive once you account for Indiana’s ability to generate offense through Siakam and Nembhard.
Indiana Pacers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Pacers are 13-39 because they lost their best player and never adjusted. Haliburton’s season-ending Achilles injury removed their primary playmaker, and while Nembhard has stepped into a larger role with 17.4 points and 7.5 assists per game, he doesn’t command the same gravity. Siakam is still productive at 23.7 points and 6.8 rebounds per game on 48.2% shooting, and he’s hitting 37.2% from three, which keeps defenses honest. Aaron Nesmith provides secondary scoring at 13.9 points per game, and he’s shooting 37.0% from deep on decent volume.
The problem is depth. Toppin is out, and he was averaging 14.0 points and 6.7 rebounds before the injury. Zubac was acquired to stabilize the center position, but he hasn’t been cleared to play and the earliest he could debut is Tuesday. That leaves Jay Huff as the starting center, and while he’s serviceable, he’s not the rim protector or rebounder that Zubac is. Indiana averages 42.7 rebounds per game, which is nearly identical to Toronto’s 42.9, but they grab 10.5 offensive boards compared to Toronto’s 11.3. The Pacers are 3-21 on the road because they don’t defend consistently and they don’t have the depth to withstand runs. They lost to Milwaukee 105-99 on Friday, and while Kevin Porter Jr. and the Bucks’ role players had big nights, Indiana stayed competitive until the final minutes. That’s the blueprint: they’ll score enough to hang around, but they don’t have the firepower or defense to close games on the road.
Toronto Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto is 31-22 and fifth in the East because they have multiple scoring options and they move the ball. Brandon Ingram leads the way at 22.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting and 36.8% from three. Scottie Barnes is the do-everything forward at 19.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game, and he’s shooting 50.3% from the field. RJ Barrett adds 18.6 points per game, and Immanuel Quickley runs the offense at 17.1 points and 6.1 assists per game. That’s four players averaging between 17 and 22 points, and they all shoot above 44% from the field.
The Raptors are 15-12 at home, which is solid but not dominant. They beat Chicago 123-107 on Thursday with Ingram scoring 33 and Quickley adding 24. Collin Murray-Boyles and Sandro Mamukelashvili each scored 17, and that depth matters when you’re laying 8.5. Mamukelashvili is averaging 11.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game on 52.7% shooting and 38.4% from three, and he’s been starting with Jakob Poeltl out. Poeltl is questionable for Sunday after fully participating in Saturday’s practice, but he’d likely be on a minutes restriction if he plays. That means Mamukelashvili and Murray-Boyles will continue to handle the bulk of the center minutes, and both have been productive.
Toronto’s edge is efficiency. They shoot 47.4% from the field compared to Indiana’s 44.7%, and they average 29.5 assists per game compared to Indiana’s 25.9. That 3.6-assist difference signals better ball movement and more open looks. The Raptors also commit 14.0 turnovers per game compared to Indiana’s 14.2, so they’re slightly more careful with the ball. The question is whether that efficiency translates to a nine-point win against a Pacers team that can score.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided by Toronto’s ability to generate open looks and Indiana’s inability to defend consistently. The Raptors average 29.5 assists per game, which means they’re creating 2.5 to 3 extra possessions of high-quality shots compared to Indiana. Over 100 possessions, that’s 5 to 7 additional points from better shot selection alone. Toronto’s 47.4% shooting compared to Indiana’s 44.7% adds another 2 to 3 points per 100 possessions. The Raptors also generate 8.5 steals per game compared to Indiana’s 7.4, and that extra steal per game typically leads to 1 to 2 transition points.
Indiana’s counter is Siakam and Nembhard. Siakam is shooting 48.2% from the field and 37.2% from three, and he’s averaging 23.7 points per game. Nembhard is facilitating at 7.5 assists per game, and he’s shooting 44.5% from the field. If those two can control the tempo and get Indiana into half-court sets, they can keep the game within single digits. The Pacers shoot 34.5% from three compared to Toronto’s 34.4%, so they have the shooting to stay close if they get hot from deep.
The rebounding battle is nearly even. Toronto averages 42.9 rebounds per game compared to Indiana’s 42.7, but the Raptors grab 11.3 offensive boards compared to Indiana’s 10.5. That extra offensive rebound per game typically leads to 1 to 2 second-chance points. Toronto’s plus/minus of +1.6 compared to Indiana’s -7.7 tells you that the Raptors win the margins consistently, and that’s what matters in a game where the spread is 8.5. Indiana is 3-21 on the road because they don’t defend well enough to win away from home, and they don’t have the depth to sustain leads. Toronto’s depth with Mamukelashvili, Murray-Boyles, and a potentially returning Poeltl gives them the rotation advantage.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Indiana +8.5 for 2 units. The Pacers are 3-21 on the road, and they’re missing key pieces, but they can score. Siakam and Nembhard are both capable of putting up 20-plus, and Indiana averages 110.7 points per game. Toronto is the better team, and they should win this game, but asking them to win by nine against a team that shoots 34.5% from three and has two legitimate scoring threats is a lot. The Raptors are 15-12 at home, which means they don’t blow teams out consistently at Scotiabank Arena. If Poeltl returns on a minutes restriction, Toronto’s interior defense might not be at full strength, and that gives Siakam more room to operate.
The risk is that Toronto’s depth and efficiency overwhelm Indiana in the second half. The Raptors have four players averaging between 17 and 22 points, and if Ingram, Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley all get going, Indiana doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow them down. But the Pacers have shown they can hang around in games, and they lost to Milwaukee by only six on Friday. This number feels a possession or two too high. Toronto wins, but Indiana covers.
BASH’S BEST BET: Indiana Pacers +8.5 for 2 units.
