The Memphis Grizzlies limp into Chase Center tonight to face a Golden State Warriors team also dealing with significant injury questions. Will the Warriors’ home-court advantage secure a winning ATS pick, or can Ty Jerome and the Grizzlies keep it closer than the seven-point spread suggests?
The Setup: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Golden State is laying 7 points at home against a Memphis squad that’s barely recognizable right now. The Grizzlies walk into Chase Center on Monday, February 9 at 10:00 ET without Ja Morant, Zach Edey, and Brandon Clarke—that’s their primary ball-handler, starting center, and frontcourt anchor all shelved. Memphis just dropped back-to-back games in Portland, getting outscored by 27 combined points across two nights. Meanwhile, the Warriors are coming off a Saturday loss to the Lakers but remain a dangerous home team at 17-9 at Chase Center this season. The Grizzlies are 9-15 on the road and sitting at 20-31 overall, eleven games under .500 with a -2.2 plus/minus. Golden State sits at 28-25 with a +2.1 plus/minus. This number opened at 7, and that’s where it’s sitting. The question isn’t whether Golden State should be favored—it’s whether seven points is enough cushion given Memphis’s depleted rotation.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Date: Monday, February 9, 2026
Time: 10:00 ET
Location: Chase Center
TV: NBC Sports BA (Home), FanDuel SN SE (Away), NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Warriors -7.0 (-110) | Grizzlies +7.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Warriors -278 | Grizzlies +219
Total: 223.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Seven points reflects the market’s respect for Memphis’s ability to stay competitive even without their top talent, but it also acknowledges the Warriors’ home-court advantage and superior depth. Golden State averages 115.6 points per game compared to Memphis’s 115.3—essentially a wash on paper. But the Grizzlies are operating without their primary creator in Morant, who was dishing 8.1 assists per game before going down with a UCL sprain in his left elbow. That’s a massive hole in offensive initiation. Ty Jerome has stepped up as the leading scorer at 20.0 points per game on ridiculous 56.5% shooting and 42.9% from three, but he’s also dealing with a calf issue according to the injury notes. Without Edey’s 11.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game anchoring the paint, Memphis loses rim protection and second-chance opportunities. The Warriors counter with Stephen Curry averaging 27.2 points and shooting 39.1% from three, plus the addition of Jimmy Butler was supposed to provide secondary creation—but Butler’s now out for the season with what appeared to be a severe injury. That shifts more responsibility to Kristaps Porzingis (17.1 points, 5.1 rebounds) and Brandin Podziemski (11.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists). The seven-point spread accounts for Golden State’s home dominance but doesn’t overcompensate for Memphis’s fight. The total at 223.5 suggests the market expects a relatively controlled game despite both teams averaging north of 115 points.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Grizzlies are basically running on fumes. Jerome has been exceptional—his 56.5% field goal percentage is elite for a guard—but he’s being asked to do too much without Morant. Santi Aldama (14.0 points, 6.7 rebounds) and Cedric Coward (13.6 points, 6.3 rebounds) provide some frontcourt balance, but neither is a primary offensive engine. Memphis still pulls down 45.5 rebounds per game compared to Golden State’s 42.6, giving them a 2.9-rebound edge. That includes 11.8 offensive boards versus the Warriors’ 10.9, which could create extra possessions. But offensive rebounding only matters if you can convert, and Memphis is shooting just 45.7% from the field and 35.0% from three—both worse than Golden State’s 46.0% and 36.3%. The Grizzlies commit slightly fewer turnovers (15.3 versus 15.6), but that marginal edge doesn’t offset the loss of Morant’s playmaking. Defensively, Memphis generates 8.0 steals and 5.1 blocks per game, but without Edey’s rim presence, they’re vulnerable inside. Back-to-back losses in Portland—135-115 on Friday, then 122-115 on Saturday—show a team that’s struggling to defend or close games on the road.
Golden State Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
Golden State’s offense runs through Curry, and he’s still performing at an elite level. His 27.2 points per game on 46.8% shooting and 39.1% from three makes him the most dangerous scorer on the floor. Porzingis adds floor-spacing and rim protection with 1.3 blocks per game, while Podziemski has emerged as a versatile connector. The Warriors generate 28.7 assists per game—identical to Memphis—but they do it with better shooting efficiency across the board. Golden State also leads in defensive activity, averaging 10.0 steals and 4.5 blocks per game. That 10.0 steals per game is significantly higher than Memphis’s 8.0, which could force turnovers against a shorthanded Grizzlies backcourt. The Warriors are 17-9 at home, and Chase Center has been a fortress this season. They lost to the Lakers on Saturday, but that was a game where LeBron James controlled the pace with 20 points, 10 assists, and seven rebounds. The Warriors don’t have Butler anymore, which removes a secondary creator and defender, but their depth still exceeds what Memphis can offer right now.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to Golden State’s ability to exploit Memphis’s backcourt and interior vulnerabilities. Without Morant, the Grizzlies lose their primary penetrator, which forces Jerome and the supporting cast to operate in more predictable sets. The Warriors’ 10.0 steals per game should translate into transition opportunities, and Curry thrives in those situations. Memphis’s 2.9-rebound advantage could keep them in striking distance, but offensive boards only matter if you can finish possessions. The Grizzlies are shooting 45.7% overall and 35.0% from three—those numbers dip further on the road, where they’re 9-15 this season. Golden State’s home shooting splits should be sharper, especially with Curry and Porzingis spacing the floor. The total at 223.5 suggests around 111-112 points per team, but Memphis’s recent games in Portland saw them give up 135 and 122 points. If Golden State pushes pace and forces Memphis into scramble situations, this number climbs. The Grizzlies’ best path to covering is crashing the glass, slowing the game down, and hoping Jerome stays hot. But over the course of 48 minutes, Golden State’s depth and home-court advantage should wear down a Memphis team that’s already gassed from back-to-back losses and cross-country travel.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the seven with Golden State. Memphis is too shorthanded to hang at Chase Center, and the Warriors have the firepower to pull away in the second half. Curry’s shooting efficiency combined with Golden State’s defensive activity gives them multiple ways to cover this number. The Grizzlies showed some fight in Portland but couldn’t close either game, and now they’re facing a better team on the road with less rest. Jerome’s hot shooting keeps this interesting, but one player can’t carry an entire offense against a Warriors team that’s 17-9 at home. The risk is Memphis crashing the offensive glass and keeping it close into the fourth quarter, but I trust Golden State’s depth to close. This line feels right at seven, and I’m not chasing a better number.
BASH’S BEST BET: Warriors -7.0 for 2 units.
