The Milwaukee Bucks head to the Kia Center on a three-game winning streak, but they face their toughest test yet without franchise star Giannis Antetokounmpo. Read on to see where the value lies and get our ATS pick for this Eastern Conference clash.
The Setup: Bucks at Magic
Orlando is laying 10.5 points at home against a Milwaukee team that’s missing its best player and sitting nine games under .500. The Bucks are 9-17 on the road, the Magic are 16-8 at the Kia Center, and Giannis Antetokounmpo remains out with a right calf strain. This number feels heavy until you realize Milwaukee is averaging a minus-3.7 point differential this season while Orlando sits at minus-0.4. The Bucks are shooting the ball better from three and overall, but they’re getting crushed on the glass and can’t defend at a high enough level to stay within double digits against a Magic team that’s 27-24 and controls pace at home. The spread tells you exactly what the market thinks: Milwaukee without Giannis is a rotation short, and Orlando has enough depth across Banchero, Wagner (questionable), and Bane to exploit it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
When: Monday, February 9, 2026, 7:30 ET
Where: Kia Center
Watch: Peacock
Records: Milwaukee Bucks (21-29, 9-17 road) | Orlando Magic (27-24, 16-8 home)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Magic -10.5 (-110) | Bucks +10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Magic -455 | Bucks +337
- Total: 218.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market hung 10.5 on Orlando because Milwaukee’s season-long numbers without Giannis don’t support competitive basketball against playoff-caliber opponents. The Bucks are averaging 112 points per game with a minus-3.7 differential, and that’s with Giannis playing most of the season. Now you’re asking Kevin Porter Jr., Ryan Rollins, and Bobby Portis to carry the offensive load against a Magic defense that generates 8.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game. Orlando’s defensive activity edge is real, and it shows up in their ability to create extra possessions. The Magic also grab 11.3 offensive rebounds per game compared to Milwaukee’s 8.7, which means second-chance points and extended possessions that widen margins late. The Bucks shoot 48.1% from the field and 39.2% from three, which keeps them in games early, but they don’t have the defensive infrastructure to slow down a balanced Magic attack that scores 115.1 per game. This line exists because Orlando controls tempo at home, owns a rebounding advantage, and doesn’t need to shoot lights out to cover double digits against a road team that’s 9-17 away from Milwaukee.
Bucks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Milwaukee is riding a three-game winning streak, but those wins came with Giannis available or against teams below .500. Kevin Porter Jr. is averaging 17.1 points and 7.5 assists, and he dropped 23 points with eight assists in Friday’s win over Indiana. Ryan Rollins added 22 in that game and is averaging 16.9 points and 5.5 assists on the season. Bobby Portis returned from a two-game absence and posted 21 points, giving Milwaukee three legitimate scoring options. The problem is depth and defensive consistency. The Bucks commit 14.4 turnovers per game and generate only 7.4 steals and 4.1 blocks, which means they’re not creating enough chaos defensively to offset their offensive limitations without Giannis. They’re also getting destroyed on the glass, averaging just 41 rebounds per game compared to Orlando’s 43.5. On the road, Milwaukee is 9-17 and doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow down a team that can score inside and out. Porter and Rollins can create shots, but they’re not efficient enough to sustain offense over 48 minutes against a disciplined home defense.
Magic Breakdown: The Other Side
Orlando just erased a 17-point deficit to beat Utah 120-117 at home, with Paolo Banchero posting 23 points and Desmond Bane adding 22. Banchero is averaging 21.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 4.9 assists this season, and he’s the primary offensive engine when Franz Wagner is out. Wagner is listed as questionable with an ankle injury after missing nine straight games, and his potential return would give Orlando another 22.2 points per game and a secondary playmaker who shoots 48.2% from the field and 36.8% from three. Even without Wagner, the Magic have enough firepower. Anthony Black scored 21 against Utah and is averaging 15.9 points and 4.1 assists, while Jalen Suggs chips in 14.2 points and 5.2 assists. Orlando’s defensive activity is the separator here. They average 8.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game, which creates transition opportunities and forces opponents into tough halfcourt sets. The Magic also dominate the offensive glass at 11.3 boards per game, giving them extra possessions that extend leads. At home, they’re 16-8 and control pace against teams that can’t match their physicality inside.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the boards and in transition. Orlando averages 2.5 more rebounds per game than Milwaukee, and that gap widens when you factor in offensive boards. The Magic grab 11.3 offensive rebounds compared to Milwaukee’s 8.7, which translates to roughly 2-3 extra possessions per game. Over a 95-possession contest, that’s the difference between covering 10.5 and falling short. Milwaukee’s shooting efficiency keeps them competitive early—they’re hitting 48.1% from the field and 39.2% from three—but they don’t have the defensive personnel to limit Orlando’s second-chance opportunities. The Bucks also turn the ball over 14.4 times per game, and Orlando’s 8.5 steals will force live-ball turnovers that lead to easy buckets. The Magic score 115.1 per game and commit only 14 turnovers, which means they’re disciplined enough to avoid self-inflicted mistakes that keep Milwaukee close. If Franz Wagner returns, Orlando adds another efficient scorer who can exploit mismatches. If he sits, Banchero and Bane have already shown they can carry the offense. Milwaukee’s best path to a cover is hot three-point shooting from Portis and Rollins, but that’s variance-dependent. Orlando’s path to a cover is controlling the glass, forcing turnovers, and playing to their season-long averages.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the points with Orlando. Milwaukee is 9-17 on the road, missing Giannis, and facing a Magic team that dominates the glass and creates extra possessions through defensive activity. The Bucks shoot well enough to stay within striking distance early, but they don’t have the depth or defensive consistency to hang over four quarters. Orlando’s 11.3 offensive rebounds per game and 8.5 steals create the margin needed to cover double digits at home. The Magic are also 16-8 at the Kia Center, and they’ve shown they can close games late—Bane hit two free throws with 28 seconds left to seal the Utah win. The risk here is Milwaukee getting hot from three and keeping it within single digits, but the Bucks average a minus-3.7 differential and don’t have the personnel to slow down Banchero, Bane, and potentially Wagner. Orlando controls pace, owns the rebounding edge, and forces turnovers that lead to transition buckets. That’s enough to cover 10.5 at home against a road team that’s nine games under .500.
BASH’S BEST BET: Magic -10.5 for 2 units.
