The Phoenix Suns host the Dallas Mavericks tonight at the Mortgage Matchup Center, where the home favorites look to capitalize on a Dallas squad mired in a seven-game losing streak. Will the Valley’s home dominance continue? Check out our expert’s ATS pick and full game breakdown below.
The Setup: Mavericks at Suns
Phoenix lays 7.5 at home against a Dallas squad that’s been getting hammered on the road all season. The Mavericks limp into the Mortgage Matchup Center at 5-16 away from home, while the Suns sit comfortably at 17-9 in their building. That record gap alone explains most of this number, but the real story lives in how these teams generate offense and whether Dallas has enough firepower to stay within a possession when Cooper Flagg is carrying the offensive load without Kyrie Irving.
The Mavericks average 114.2 points per game compared to Phoenix’s 113.6, which makes this look closer than the 7.5-point spread suggests. But that scoring edge evaporates when you factor in Dallas shooting 47.0% from the field while Phoenix counters with better perimeter efficiency at 36.5% from three. The Suns also own a plus-2.2 net margin compared to Dallas sitting at minus-3.0, and that five-point swing in season-long performance is exactly what this spread is pricing in.
MyBookie has the total at 227.0, which tracks with two teams that can score but don’t defend at an elite level. Dallas allows too many clean looks in transition, and Phoenix just got torched by Philadelphia for 109 points despite Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey combining for 62. The question isn’t whether both teams can score—it’s whether Dallas can do it efficiently enough on the road to keep this competitive deep into the fourth quarter.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 10, 2026, 9:00 ET
Location: Mortgage Matchup Center
TV: Arizona’s Family 3TV, Suns Live (Home) | KFAA-TV, Mavs.com, NBA League Pass (Away)
Current Spread: Mavericks +7.5 (-110) | Suns -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavericks +234 | Suns -303
Total: Over 227.0 (-110) | Under 227.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The Suns are 17-9 at home. The Mavericks are 5-16 on the road. That’s the foundation of this 7.5-point spread, and everything else just confirms it.
Dallas shoots a respectable 47.0% overall and grabs 2.2 more rebounds per game than Phoenix, but those advantages don’t travel. When you’re 5-16 away from home, you’re not executing in hostile environments, and the numbers show why. The Mavericks commit 14.7 turnovers per game compared to Phoenix’s 15.1, which is nearly identical, but Phoenix generates 10.2 steals per game compared to Dallas’s 7.6. That’s a massive gap in defensive activity, and it creates extra possessions that turn into easy buckets for Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks in transition.
Phoenix also sits at 31-22 overall with a plus-2.2 margin, while Dallas limps in at 19-33 with a minus-3.0. That’s a five-point swing in season-long performance, and the market is asking Dallas to cover 7.5. The math says Phoenix should win by more than a possession, and the Suns just need to defend their home court the way they’ve done 17 times already this season.
The 227.0 total reflects two teams that can score but struggle to get consistent stops. Dallas averages 114.2 points per game, Phoenix 113.6, and neither defense forces opponents into uncomfortable possessions. The Suns shoot 36.5% from three compared to Dallas at 34.5%, and that perimeter gap matters when you’re projecting 227 combined points. Both teams need to hit open looks to push this over, and the shooting percentages say they’re capable.
Mavericks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Cooper Flagg is carrying this offense at 20.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game, shooting 48.4% from the field. He’s the only legitimate shot creator Dallas has with Kyrie Irving still working through ACL rehab, and that’s a problem when you’re trying to cover 7.5 on the road. Naji Marshall adds 14.7 points on 52.5% shooting, and P.J. Washington chips in 14.1 points with 7.1 boards, but neither guy can create offense in isolation when Phoenix loads up on Flagg.
Max Christie provides spacing at 42.9% from three on 13.3 points per game, which helps, but Dallas doesn’t have enough secondary playmaking to punish Phoenix when the Suns trap Flagg in pick-and-roll. Brandon Williams averages 3.6 assists, but he’s shooting just 22.4% from three, which means Phoenix can go under screens and force Dallas into contested twos.
Klay Thompson is questionable and may get rest, which would shift more minutes to recently acquired Khris Middleton, who’s set to make his team debut. That’s a rotation wrinkle that could help Dallas’s spacing, but it’s also a guy learning a new system on the road in a tough spot. The Mavericks rebound well at 45.1 boards per game, but that advantage disappears when Phoenix controls tempo and forces Dallas into halfcourt sets where Flagg has to create everything.
Suns Breakdown: The Other Side
Devin Booker is the engine at 25.3 points and 6.3 assists per game, shooting 45.6% from the field. He’s not lighting it up from three at 30.7%, but he gets to his spots in the midrange and creates open looks for Dillon Brooks and Collin Gillespie. Brooks is having a career year at 21.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting and 35.3% from deep, and he’s the secondary scorer Phoenix needs when Booker draws double teams.
Grayson Allen is out until after the All-Star break with a shoulder injury, which removes 17.0 points and 36.9% three-point shooting from the rotation. That’s a significant loss, but Collin Gillespie steps in at 13.6 points and 4.7 assists while shooting 42.6% from three, which keeps Phoenix’s spacing intact. Mark Williams anchors the paint at 12.2 points and 8.2 rebounds on 66.0% shooting, and he’s the rim deterrent Dallas lacks.
Phoenix shoots 36.5% from three as a team, which is better than Dallas at 34.5%, and that perimeter edge matters when you’re laying 7.5 at home. The Suns also generate 10.2 steals per game compared to Dallas’s 7.6, and those extra possessions turn into transition buckets where Phoenix thrives. The Suns just lost to Philadelphia 109-103 despite shooting poorly, but they’ve won 17 of 26 at home, and this is exactly the kind of game they’re supposed to control.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Dallas can generate enough efficient offense on the road to stay within two possessions. The Mavericks average 114.2 points per game, but that number drops significantly away from home, where they’re 5-16. Phoenix defends with activity—10.2 steals per game compared to Dallas’s 7.6—and those turnovers create easy buckets in transition where the Suns excel.
Dallas shoots 47.0% overall, but Phoenix counters with better three-point shooting at 36.5% compared to 34.5%. Over the course of 90-95 possessions, that perimeter gap adds up to an extra 6-9 points, which is the difference between covering 7.5 and getting blown out. The Mavericks rebound well at 45.1 boards per game, but Phoenix grabs 12.7 offensive rebounds compared to Dallas’s 10.2, and those second-chance points extend possessions when the Suns need to close quarters.
Cooper Flagg is Dallas’s only reliable shot creator, and Phoenix can load up on him without worrying about secondary playmaking. Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington are solid complementary pieces, but neither guy can break down a defense in isolation. Phoenix runs Booker and Brooks in pick-and-roll sets that force Dallas into rotations, and Mark Williams cleans up misses at 66.0% shooting around the rim.
The 227.0 total requires both teams to hit open shots, and the shooting percentages say they’re capable. Dallas shoots 47.0% overall and 74.7% from the line, while Phoenix counters at 46.0% and 79.7% from the stripe. If both teams execute in halfcourt sets and limit turnovers, this game pushes 230-plus. But if Phoenix’s defensive activity forces Dallas into 16-17 turnovers, the Suns control tempo and keep this in the 220-225 range.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
Phoenix -7.5 at home is the right side. The Suns are 17-9 in this building, and Dallas is 5-16 on the road. That’s not a matchup—it’s a mismatch. The Mavericks don’t have enough shot creation without Kyrie Irving, and Cooper Flagg can’t carry this offense through 48 minutes against a Phoenix defense that generates 10.2 steals per game. The Suns shoot better from three, defend with more activity, and control tempo at home.
Grayson Allen’s absence hurts Phoenix’s depth, but Collin Gillespie provides enough spacing at 42.6% from three to keep the offense functional. Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks combine for 46.4 points per game, and that duo should feast on a Dallas defense that allows too many clean looks in transition. The Suns just need to defend their home court the way they’ve done 17 times already this season, and Dallas doesn’t have the firepower to keep this within a possession.
The risk is Dallas hitting threes early and staying competitive through three quarters, but the Mavericks shoot just 34.5% from deep compared to Phoenix at 36.5%. Over 90-plus possessions, that gap adds up, and the Suns pull away late. Phoenix wins by double digits, and we cash -7.5 with room to spare.
BASH’S BEST BET: Suns -7.5 for 2 units.
