The No. 23 Arkansas Razorbacks head to Baton Rouge looking to build on their dominant win over Mississippi State. Will John Calipari’s squad find another gear, or should you read on to get our expert’s ATS pick for this SEC showdown?
The Setup: Arkansas at LSU
Arkansas is laying 5.5 to 6 points on the road at LSU, and the market’s telling you something important here—this isn’t the same Tigers team that opened conference play looking dangerous. The Razorbacks are 7-2 with the 25th-ranked adjusted net efficiency per collegebasketballdata.com, while LSU has dropped four of their last five and sits at 8-1 with a record that’s starting to look inflated. When you dig into the efficiency numbers, Arkansas holds edges in both adjusted offense (118.1, tied at 31st) and adjusted defense (99.6, 39th) compared to LSU’s 118.1 and 101.6 (56th). That defensive gap matters, especially when you consider LSU’s 235th-ranked defensive rating in actual performance. The spread makes sense when you understand what’s happening beneath the surface—Arkansas protects the ball better, defends the three better, and has already beaten this LSU team once this season, 85-81 in Fayetteville.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Arkansas (7-2) at LSU (8-1)
Date: February 10, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA
Point Spread: Arkansas -5.5 to -6
Total: 161.5
Moneyline: Arkansas -260, LSU +215
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk about why Arkansas is favored on the road, because that’s not typical SEC basketball. The efficiency metrics paint a clear picture: both teams rank 31st in adjusted offense, but Arkansas sits 39th in adjusted defense while LSU checks in at 56th. That’s a meaningful gap. More importantly, look at the actual defensive ratings—Arkansas at 97.7 (56th nationally) versus LSU at 109.4 (235th). That’s an 11.7-point swing in points allowed per 100 possessions, and it’s showing up in real results.
The tempo split creates an interesting dynamic. Arkansas plays at the 49th-fastest pace (72.7 possessions per game) while LSU crawls at 336th nationally (61.4 possessions). The market’s setting the total at 161.5, which projects roughly 81-80 if you’re splitting it evenly. That feels about right given the pace contrast—Arkansas wants to push (200 fast break points already), LSU wants to grind in the halfcourt (just 123 fast break points).
The spread itself? Six points on the road reflects Arkansas’s superior ball security and three-point defense. The Razorbacks rank 3rd nationally in turnover ratio (0.1) while averaging just 9.4 turnovers per game (16th). LSU’s giving it away 11.0 times per contest (86th) with a 0.2 turnover ratio (124th). When you’re playing in a hostile road environment, protecting the ball like Arkansas does becomes a massive advantage. Add in Arkansas defending the three at 27.8% (29th nationally) while LSU allows 33.0% (197th), and you’ve got a recipe for road success.
Arkansas Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Razorbacks are built on two pillars: elite ball security and suffocating perimeter defense. That 9.4 turnovers per game average isn’t just good—it’s 16th nationally, and the 0.1 turnover ratio ranks 3rd in the country. Darius Acuff Jr. is the engine, averaging 17.4 points and 5.4 assists (46th nationally) while running an offense that generates 17.1 assists per game (56th).
Defensively, Arkansas forces you to beat them from three, and most teams can’t. They’re holding opponents to 27.8% from deep (29th) and 39.6% overall (48th). Meleek Thomas adds 16.9 points per game, giving Arkansas a legitimate 1-2 punch in the backcourt. Trevon Brazile provides interior presence with 12.6 points and 7.1 rebounds (157th nationally).
The free throw line is where Arkansas separates—they’re shooting 78.3% (14th nationally), which matters in close road games. They’ve already won at Oklahoma this season and handled business in their first meeting with LSU. This team knows how to win away from home, and they’ve got the efficiency profile to back it up.
LSU Breakdown: The Counterpoint
LSU’s 8-1 record looks impressive until you examine the recent slide—four losses in five games, including a home loss to Georgia and getting blown out at Florida 79-61. The Tigers’ offensive rating of 138.0 (11th) shows they can score in bunches when things click, but that 109.4 defensive rating (235th) is a glaring weakness.
Dedan Thomas Jr. runs the show with 15.2 points and 6.2 assists (17th nationally), while Mike Nwoko provides interior scoring at 16.0 points per game. Marquel Sutton is a legitimate rebounder at 8.9 boards per contest (49th nationally), giving LSU an edge on the glass with 42.3 rebounds per game (24th).
The problem? LSU can’t defend the perimeter consistently, allowing 33.0% from three (197th), and they turn it over too much (11.0 per game, 86th). At home in the PMAC, they’re dangerous—the crowd matters, the environment matters. But this roster hasn’t proven it can execute defensively against quality opponents, and Arkansas already exposed them once this season.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace control and three-point defense. Arkansas wants to push tempo and create transition opportunities—they’ve already scored 200 fast break points this season. LSU wants to slow it down, pound the glass, and work inside-out through Nwoko and Sutton. The 336th-ranked pace tells you everything about LSU’s identity.
The critical battleground is Arkansas’s ball security against LSU’s pressure. The Tigers only generate 6.1 steals per game (270th), which plays directly into Arkansas’s hands. When you protect the ball like the Razorbacks do (3rd in turnover ratio), you neutralize the home crowd and control possessions.
Three-point defense is the other deciding factor. Arkansas ranks 29th in opponent three-point percentage while LSU sits 197th. In a game where possessions will be limited by LSU’s pace, every made three becomes magnified. Arkansas shot 35.5% from deep (112th) in their first meeting and won by four. They don’t need to be elite from three—they just need to be competent while defending it on the other end.
The rebounding battle favors LSU on paper (42.3 per game, 24th versus Arkansas’s 38.9, 100th), but Arkansas’s offensive rebounding is actually worse (28.0%, 294th). This isn’t a team that crashes the offensive glass—they get back on defense and protect in transition. That discipline matters on the road.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Arkansas at -5.5. The efficiency gap is real, the matchup favors the Razorbacks, and LSU’s four losses in five games aren’t a coincidence—they’re a reflection of defensive deficiencies that quality opponents exploit. Arkansas already won this matchup by four in Fayetteville while shooting just 35.5% from three. They defended, they protected the ball, and they executed down the stretch.
The PMAC will be loud, but noise doesn’t fix a 235th-ranked defensive rating. Arkansas ranks 39th in adjusted defense and plays with the kind of ball security (3rd in turnover ratio) that travels. When you’re giving the ball away just 9.4 times per game against a team that forces only 6.1 steals, you’re controlling the game’s rhythm regardless of venue.
Give me Arkansas -5.5. The Razorbacks win this game by 7-9 points and cover comfortably. This line’s a gift.
