The PGA Tour’s first Signature Event of 2026 heads to the iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links, where our expert prediction weighs Scottie Scheffler’s historic form against a field of 80 elite ball-strikers.
Event: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Where: Pebble Beach Golf Links & Spyglass Hill Golf Course — Pebble Beach, California
When: February 12–15, 2026
Watch: Golf Channel & CBS
Format: Signature Event — 80 Players, No Cut, 72 Holes
Purse: $20,000,000 ($3.6M to the winner)
FedExCup Points: 700 to the winner
Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy (-21, 2025)
Welcome to the big dance, folks. The 2026 PGA Tour season has been nothing short of spectacular through its first four events, and now we’re cranking up the volume for the first Signature Event of the year. Pebble Beach — arguably the most beautiful setting in all of golf — plays host to an 80-player field loaded with star power, storylines, and serious betting value.
Four tournaments in, and all four winners have been players currently ranked in the top five of the Official World Golf Rankings. Scottie Scheffler opened the year with a dominant four-shot romp at The American Express (his 20th career Tour victory), Justin Rose shattered the Farmers Insurance Open scoring record with a wire-to-wire masterclass at Torrey Pines (23-under, seven shots clear), and Chris Gotterup became the hottest player on planet earth by winning two of his first three starts, including a dramatic playoff at last week’s WM Phoenix Open over Hideki Matsuyama.
Now, with the defending champion Rory McIlroy making his 2026 season debut and Scheffler looking to add another trophy to his mantle, this week has all the ingredients for an unforgettable four days on the Monterey Peninsula.
Course Breakdown: The Art of Positional Golf
If you’re betting Pebble Beach, you need to understand what makes these courses tick — because this is not your typical PGA Tour bombers’ paradise.
Pebble Beach Golf Links (Par 72, 6,972 yards) is one of the shortest courses on Tour, but don’t let the yardage fool you. Designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant, with a 2016 redesign by Arnold Palmer and Thad Layton, this coastal gem features 116 bunkers, tiny Poa Annua green complexes averaging just 3,500 square feet (the smallest on Tour), and fairways that average roughly 34 yards wide. When the Pacific winds blow — and they often do — those dimensions become downright terrifying.
Spyglass Hill Golf Course (Par 72, 7,026 yards) serves as the secondary course for the first two rounds. Designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr., it’s slightly longer than Pebble but offers a similar coastal defense. Players will each play one round here on Thursday or Friday before the field shifts exclusively to Pebble Beach for the weekend.
The key stats to watch this week are Strokes Gained: Approach (these tiny greens demand precision from 100–150 yards), good drive percentage (it’s about positioning, not distance), Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa Annua greens, and scrambling. The past 15 winners before McIlroy’s 2025 triumph all had at least one prior top-25 at this event. Experience matters on these slippery surfaces.
Weather Watch: “Crosby Weather” Returns
The tournament historically deals with what locals call “Crosby Weather” — named for Bing Crosby, who hosted the event for decades. This week, early forecasts call for ideal conditions Thursday and Friday before rain and wind potentially move in for the weekend. A rainy, breezy Sunday final round could play right into the hands of players accustomed to European links conditions — keep that in mind when scanning the odds board.
The Favorites: Breaking Down the Big Names
Scottie Scheffler (+300) — The Machine
There is simply no better golfer on earth right now, and the numbers are staggering. Scheffler opened his 2026 campaign with a four-shot victory at The American Express, shooting 27-under over 72 holes for his 20th career PGA Tour title — joining Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as the only players to reach that milestone along with four major championships before turning 30. He then headed to the WM Phoenix Open and finished just one shot out of the playoff despite posting a 73 in Round 1.
Since his T20 at The Players last March, Scheffler hasn’t finished worse than T8 across 17 worldwide starts, winning seven times in that stretch. He’s making his third career start at Pebble Beach, with both previous appearances resulting in top-10 finishes — including a T9 last year when he made his season debut there recovering from a hand injury.
The case for: Best player in the world, won his only start this season, elite in every strokes gained category, and his precision-based game is tailor-made for Pebble’s small greens.
The case against: At +300, the juice is steep. You’re laying significant odds in an 80-man field on a course where weather can scramble the leaderboard in a heartbeat.
Verdict: He should be the favorite, but for betting purposes, the “Without Scheffler” market offers more value for everyone else.
Rory McIlroy (+1400) — The Defending Champ
McIlroy’s 2025 was the defining year of his career. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at 21-under with a final-round 66 and a two-shot victory over Shane Lowry. He then won The Players Championship before completing the career Grand Slam with an emotional playoff victory over Justin Rose at The Masters — becoming the sixth man in history to win all four majors. He also won the Amgen Irish Open, contributed 3.5 points to Europe’s away Ryder Cup victory at Bethpage, and claimed a seventh Race to Dubai title.
He makes his 2026 season debut this week after spending the early season playing in Dubai, where he had a decent run of form. However, questions linger about his iron play with the new equipment he’s using, and there’s always the rust factor of a season debut.
The case for: Defending champion who overpowered this course last year, career-defining confidence after the Grand Slam, and historically starts seasons well (won here last year in his first PGA Tour start of 2025).
The case against: Season debut rust is real, questions about his iron play with new equipment, and he faded down the stretch in late 2025 after the emotional high of the Masters.
Verdict: The defending champion narrative is strong and he proved last year that he can overpower Pebble Beach from the tee, something few players can do. Worth a look at +1400, but I prefer him in top-5 or top-10 markets.
Si Woo Kim (+2200) — The Hot Hand
Here’s a name that should be circled, underlined, and highlighted on your card. Kim is in the middle of the best stretch of his career. Over his past 11 starts dating back to the 2025 playoffs, he’s finished top-25 in every single one, with five top-5s. He was T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago and T3 at the WM Phoenix Open last week. He ranks second on Tour in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green. He won The American Express in 2021 and has finished 12th and 14th at Pebble Beach the past two seasons.
The case for: Scorching hot form, elite ball-striking numbers, proven at this event, and his precision game fits these tiny greens perfectly.
The case against: His putting remains his Achilles’ heel — he ranks 131st on Tour in SG: Putting. Poa Annua greens can be treacherous for inconsistent putters.
Verdict: One of my top plays this week. If that putter cooperates for four days, he wins this tournament. The +2200 price is a gift given his current form.
Justin Rose (+2500) — The Record Breaker
The 45-year-old Englishman is playing some of the best golf of his career — and that’s saying something for a former world No. 1 and U.S. Open champion. Rose obliterated the field at the Farmers Insurance Open just two weeks ago, shooting 23-under to break the Torrey Pines scoring record (previously held by Tiger Woods from 1999), winning by seven shots in a wire-to-wire performance — the first wire-to-wire winner at Torrey Pines since Tommy Bolt in 1955.
His Pebble Beach history is exceptional. He won here in 2023, then finished T11 and T3 in the two subsequent years. He now has two wins in his last five PGA Tour starts dating back to last summer’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’s risen to No. 3 in the world rankings.
The case for: Former champion at Pebble Beach (2023), won by seven at Torrey Pines two weeks ago, ball-striking is razor sharp, and his precise iron play is exactly what these small greens demand.
The case against: He took the week off after the Farmers rather than playing Phoenix — will the layoff disrupt his rhythm? At 45, fatigue from maintaining peak form is always a concern.
Verdict: Rose at +2500 with the form he’s carrying is outstanding value. His course history here (Win, T11, T3) makes him one of the strongest contenders in the field.
Value Plays: Where the Smart Money Goes
Chris Gotterup (+3000) — The Rising Star Is Already Here
Let’s be clear about something: Gotterup isn’t a “rising star” anymore — he’s arrived. The 26-year-old has won two of his first three starts this season (Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open), giving him four career PGA Tour victories and three wins in his last 10 starts dating back to last summer’s Genesis Scottish Open, where he beat Rory McIlroy. He sits atop the FedExCup standings and ranks second on Tour in SG: Off the Tee.
The catch? This is his Pebble Beach debut. No course history is a legitimate concern, but at +3000 for the hottest player on Tour, the value is there. He’ll also make his Masters debut this spring off the back of this form.
Russell Henley (+3000) — The Quiet Assassin
Henley is one of the straightest shooters on Tour and a master on Poa Annua greens. He’s rattled off 10 straight top-20 finishes with true strokes gained on approach in each. On a course that rewards accuracy and precision over power, Henley’s game is a near-perfect fit. Don’t sleep on this one.
Jason Day (+4000) — The Pebble Beach Specialist
Nine career top-10 finishes at Pebble Beach. Let that sink in. Day’s approach game is dialed in — he fired an 8-under 64 in the final round of The American Express to surge into a T2 finish. The Aussie’s short game and course knowledge make him one of the most dangerous players in this field at this price.
Viktor Hovland (+2800) — The Sleeper Contender
Hovland won the U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach in 2018 and finished T12 in the U.S. Open here a year later while still an amateur. He showed positive signs at the WM Phoenix Open, finishing T10 and ranking fifth in true SG: Approach. The Norwegian has also quietly become a plus strokes-gained around-the-green player over the last 24 rounds — a massive improvement from his well-documented short game struggles. If his putter cooperates on Poa, watch out.
Ryan Gerard (+7500) — The Longshot With Legs
Gerard has been one of the most consistent players on Tour to start 2026, reeling off three straight runner-up or T2 finishes before going T11 at the Farmers. He ranks sixth in the field in SG: Approach and 13th in SG: Around the Green over the last 24 rounds. At +7500, he’s a fantastic longshot play with legitimate statistical backing.
Players to Avoid
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
Fleetwood is making his 2026 PGA Tour season debut this week, and while his pedigree is unquestioned (FedExCup champion, European Ryder Cup stalwart), his early-season form out of Dubai has been loose. He’s been shut out of the top 20 in three prior trips to Pebble Beach, and he enters without a win in the Middle East to build confidence. There’s too much value elsewhere at this price to take a flier on a player with no course history success.
Xander Schauffele (+2800)
In two starts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Schauffele has finishes of T66 and T54. Yes, you read that correctly. The course simply hasn’t suited his game, and while he’s an elite talent, there are far better options at +2800 this week.
Complete Odds Board — Top 40
| Player | Odds | W/O Scheffler |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +300 | — |
| Rory McIlroy | +1400 | +1000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +2200 | +2000 |
| Justin Rose | +2500 | +2200 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 | +2000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2800 | +2200 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2800 | +2200 |
| Chris Gotterup | +3000 | +2200 |
| Russell Henley | +3000 | +2500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3500 | +2500 |
| Jake Knapp | +3500 | +2500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +3500 | +2500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3500 | +2500 |
| Ben Griffin | +4000 | +2500 |
| Cameron Young | +4000 | +2500 |
| Jason Day | +4000 | +3000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +4000 | +3000 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | +4000 | +3000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +4500 | +3000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +4500 | +3000 |
| Shane Lowry | +4500 | +3500 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +5000 | +4500 |
| Sepp Straka | +5000 | +4000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +6000 | +4500 |
| Daniel Berger | +6000 | +4000 |
| Harris English | +6000 | +4000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +6000 | +4000 |
| Min Woo Lee | +7000 | +5000 |
| Sam Burns | +7000 | +4000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +7500 | +5000 |
| Ryan Gerard | +7500 | +5000 |
| Harry Hall | +8000 | +6000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +8000 | +6000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +8000 | +5500 |
| Sahith Theegala | +8000 | +6000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +8000 | +6000 |
First Round Notes
Keep in mind the split-course format for Rounds 1 and 2. Each player will play one round at Pebble Beach and one at Spyglass Hill. Here’s what matters:
Scheffler is at Pebble Beach on Thursday (+550 for first-round leader) while McIlroy starts at Spyglass Hill (+1100). Spyglass typically plays tougher, so course assignment matters for first-round props and matchups. If you’re playing first-round leader markets, note the two separate leaderboards — the Pebble Beach first-round leader market and the Spyglass Hill first-round leader market are separate bets.
Expert Betting Card
Best Bets (Highest Confidence)
Si Woo Kim (+2200) — 1.5 units outright: Elite ball-striking form, proven here with T12 and T14 the past two years, and he’s been top-25 in 11 straight starts. The value at this number is simply too good.
Justin Rose (+2500) — 1.5 units outright: Won here in 2023, T3 last year, coming off a record-breaking seven-shot win at Torrey Pines. His precision iron play is tailor-made for the smallest greens on Tour.
Value Plays
Chris Gotterup (+3000) — 1 unit outright: Hottest player on Tour with two wins in three starts. His Pebble Beach debut is the only concern, but the talent and confidence level override it at this price.
Jason Day (+4000) — 0.75 units outright: Nine career top-10s at Pebble Beach and approach game dialed after his T2 at the American Express. The old Pebble Beach magic runs deep.
Ryan Gerard (+7500) — 0.5 units outright: Three straight top-2 finishes to start the year, sixth in SG: Approach in the field. Legitimate longshot with statistical backing.
Props & Exotics
2 Chances: Scheffler / Si Woo Kim (+245): You’re getting two elite players for the price of one. Both have top-10 history here and are in peak form.
3 Chances: Scheffler / Rory / Si Woo Kim (+180): Three of the best players in the field in a single bet. At +180, this is strong value for any-of-three to win.
Verified Key Facts
- Scottie Scheffler won The American Express by four shots (27-under) for his 20th career PGA Tour title — verified via PGA Tour, Sky Sports, Yahoo Sports, Golf Channel
- Justin Rose won the Farmers Insurance Open at 23-under, breaking Tiger Woods’ 1999 scoring record, winning by seven shots wire-to-wire — verified via PGA Tour, CBS Sports, San Diego Union-Tribune
- Chris Gotterup won the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open (playoff over Matsuyama) for two wins in three 2026 starts, four career victories — verified via PGA Tour, CBS Sports, GOLF.com
- Rory McIlroy won the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at 21-under, two shots over Shane Lowry, then won The Players Championship and completed the career Grand Slam at the 2025 Masters in a playoff over Justin Rose — verified via PGA Tour, ESPN, Sky Sports, Wikipedia
- Si Woo Kim has finished top-25 in 11 straight starts, ranked second in SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green, with T2 at Farmers and T3 at WM Phoenix Open — verified via PGA Tour betting profile, RotoWire, CBS Sports
- Pebble Beach Golf Links: Par 72, 6,972 yards, 116 bunkers, 3,500 sq.ft. average greens (smallest on Tour), Poa Annua putting surfaces — verified via PGA Tour, Golf Betting System, multiple course databases
- Xander Schauffele has finishes of T66 and T54 in two Pebble Beach starts — verified via CBS Sports
- Scheffler’s 20 wins in 151 starts makes him the third-quickest to 20 wins, trailing only Tiger Woods (95 starts) and Jack Nicklaus (127 starts) — verified via University of Texas Athletics, PGA Tour
- The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a $20 million Signature Event with 700 FedExCup points to the winner and no cut — verified via PGA Tour, multiple sources
- Weather forecast: ideal conditions Thursday/Friday, rain and wind possible Saturday/Sunday — verified via Yahoo Sports, Monterey County Now, AccuWeather
Betting Strategy Summary
This is a precision golf course that rewards accuracy over power, patience over aggression, and experience over raw talent. Target players with elite SG: Approach numbers, strong Poa Annua putting histories, and proven Pebble Beach form. The “Without Scheffler” market is your friend if you want to remove the world No. 1 from the equation and get better odds on the rest of the field.
With weather potentially becoming a factor on the weekend, players with European links experience could have an edge if conditions deteriorate. That’s another reason to like Si Woo Kim (thrived in wind his entire career), Justin Rose (English links background), and Shane Lowry (finished second here last year in blustery conditions).
Good luck out there this week. Pebble Beach always delivers — and this year’s field is the strongest it’s been in decades.
Bovada Odds referenced from the betting data provided as of February 11, 2026. Please gamble responsibly.
