Yale enters Leede Arena as a substantial road favorite, and for those eyeing an ATS pick, the mismatch between the Bulldogs’ 9th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and Dartmouth’s struggling defense is the central theme. After digging into the transition data, it’s clear that Yale’s ability to protect the rock (14th in fewest turnovers) will be a massive hurdle for a Dartmouth squad that has struggled to disrupt rhythm in conference play.
The Setup: Yale at Dartmouth
Yale’s laying 9 points on the road at Dartmouth, and if you’re thinking this feels like a trap game in the Ivy League, I’m here to tell you why the numbers say otherwise. The Bulldogs are 10-1 and rolling with an offensive efficiency profile that ranks among the nation’s elite. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, Yale’s adjusted offensive rating of 123.4 ranks 9th nationally—that’s not a typo, and it’s not just beating up on cupcakes. Dartmouth’s sitting at 3-4 with an adjusted net rating of -6.8, and while they’ve shown flashes, the gap between these programs is real. The market landed on 9 to 9.5 points, and my job is to explain why that number makes perfect sense when you understand what Yale does offensively and where Dartmouth’s defensive vulnerabilities lie.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Yale (10-1) @ Dartmouth (3-4)
Date: February 13, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Leede Arena, Hanover, NH
Spread: Yale -9 to -9.5
Total: 152.5 to 153
Moneyline: Yale -500 / Dartmouth +360
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let’s talk about why the market settled on Yale laying around 9 points on the road. The adjusted efficiency gap tells most of the story—Yale’s 13.7 net rating ranks 47th nationally, while Dartmouth sits at -6.8 and 259th. That’s a 20.5-point swing in adjusted efficiency, which typically translates to somewhere between 8 and 12 points on a neutral court depending on tempo factors.
Here’s where it gets interesting: Yale plays at a glacial 66.8 pace (247th nationally), while Dartmouth pushes it slightly faster at 72.1 (62nd). That pace differential actually works in Dartmouth’s favor—fewer possessions generally compress margins and give the underdog more variance to work with. If Yale controlled tempo completely, this number might be 11 or 12. Instead, we’re looking at 9 to 9.5, which accounts for road environment and the fact that Dartmouth will get a few extra possessions to try and keep this competitive.
The total sitting at 152.5 to 153 makes sense too. Yale’s offensive rating of 129.8 ranks 22nd nationally, and even against Dartmouth’s 113.5 adjusted defensive rating (297th), they should score efficiently. Dartmouth’s offensive rating of 110.3 isn’t terrible, but Yale’s defensive rating of 104.9 suggests this stays under control. The math projects something around 155 total points, so the market’s right in the pocket.
Yale Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Yale’s offense is absolutely surgical. That 52.5% field goal percentage ranks 9th nationally, but it’s the three-point shooting that separates them—44.0% from deep ranks 2nd in the country. This isn’t volume shooting either; their 60.3% effective field goal percentage (11th) and 64.5% true shooting percentage (7th) show they’re getting quality looks and converting at an elite rate.
Nick Townsend anchors everything at 17.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. He’s a legitimate do-everything forward who ranks in the top 120 nationally in scoring. Isaac Celiscar (13.8 PPG) and Riley Fox (13.5 PPG) give them three legitimate scoring threats, and Yale’s 17.6 assists per game (40th nationally) show this is a connected offensive system.
The concern? Yale’s rebounding is genuinely weak at 33.8 per game (291st), and their 29.8% offensive rebounding rate (233rd) means they’re not generating many second chances. If Dartmouth can control the glass, they might stay in this longer than the spread suggests.
Dartmouth Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Dartmouth’s got one elite weapon in Kareem Thomas, who’s averaging 20.0 points per game and ranks 34th nationally in scoring. He’s a legitimate bucket-getter who can keep Dartmouth in games single-handedly. Brandon Mitchell-Day adds 12.9 points and 8.9 rebounds (53rd nationally), giving them an inside presence that could exploit Yale’s rebounding weakness.
The Big Green also defend the three-point line well—opponents shoot just 29.2% from deep against them, ranking 51st nationally. That’s critical because Yale lives beyond the arc. If Dartmouth can force Yale into contested threes and turn this into a half-court grind, they’ve got a path to covering.
But here’s the problem: Dartmouth turns it over 14.6 times per game (320th nationally), and their turnover ratio of 0.2 ranks 274th. Yale’s taking care of the ball with just 9.3 turnovers per game (14th nationally) and a 0.1 turnover ratio (17th). That possession differential is massive in a slower-paced game where every possession matters.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Dartmouth can protect the ball and control the glass against Yale’s offensive precision. Yale’s already beaten Dartmouth once this season, 83-68 at home, and the dynamics haven’t changed dramatically since then.
Yale’s going to hunt threes—they’re shooting 44% from deep for a reason. Dartmouth’s three-point defense is solid, but can they maintain that discipline for 40 minutes against a team that ranks 9th in adjusted offense? I’m skeptical. Yale doesn’t beat itself with turnovers, and their 80.1% free throw shooting (5th nationally) means if this gets tight late, they’ll close it out at the line.
Dartmouth’s best path is through Kareem Thomas going nuclear and Brandon Mitchell-Day dominating the glass. Yale’s 291st in rebounding, so second-chance points could keep this within single digits. But Dartmouth’s turnover issues are a killer—giving Yale extra possessions when they’re already this efficient offensively is a recipe for a double-digit loss.
The pace factor matters here too. Dartmouth wants to speed this up and create transition opportunities where Yale’s defensive rating of 104.9 (165th) shows some vulnerability. But Yale’s not going to cooperate—they want to walk it up, execute in the half-court, and let their shooting efficiency take over.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Yale -9. The efficiency gap is too wide, and Yale’s offensive profile is built to exploit exactly what Dartmouth struggles with defensively. That 123.4 adjusted offensive rating isn’t a fluke—it’s elite shot-making and ball security against a Dartmouth defense that ranks 297th in adjusted efficiency.
Dartmouth’s turnover issues are the clincher for me. You can’t give a team this efficient 14-15 possessions per game and expect to keep it within a possession or two. Yale’s already proven they can beat Dartmouth by 15 at home, and while road environments matter in the Ivy League, this isn’t a hostile gym that changes the fundamental matchup dynamics.
The over/under at 152.5 is tempting too, but I’m staying away. Yale’s pace is slow enough that this could easily finish 80-72 and stay under. Give me the side with the team that ranks 9th in adjusted offense, takes care of the ball, and shoots 44% from three. Yale covers on the road.
