Pennsylvania is laying 3.5 points at home, but after Columbia already took down the Quakers earlier this season, is the home team really the safest ATS pick on the board? Looking at the situational spot, Columbia is hungry to bounce back from a tough loss to Cornell, and their superior shooting splits suggest they have the firepower to silence the Palestra crowd.
The Setup: Columbia at Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s getting 2.5 to 3.5 points at home against Columbia at The Palestra, and if you’re eyeing that Columbia 9-1 record and thinking the Lions are getting disrespected, pump the brakes. The efficiency data from collegebasketballdata.com tells a completely different story than what those raw records suggest. Columbia’s adjusted defensive rating sits at 104.1, ranking 102nd nationally, while Penn checks in at 111.9, good for 271st. But here’s the thing—Columbia just dropped three of their last five, including an 88-67 beatdown by Cornell and an 80-68 loss to Princeton. Meanwhile, Penn took down Princeton 61-60 and hung 91 on Cornell. This line isn’t about records. It’s about momentum, home court at one of college basketball’s most iconic venues, and efficiency metrics that suggest Columbia’s early season success might’ve been a bit inflated. Penn’s getting the points for a reason, and when you dig into the numbers, this spread makes more sense than you’d think.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Columbia @ Pennsylvania
Date: February 13, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: The Palestra, Philadelphia, PA
Bovada:
Spread: Pennsylvania -2.5
Total: 149
Moneyline: Pennsylvania -150, Columbia +130
DraftKings:
Spread: Pennsylvania -3.5
Total: 148.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The adjusted efficiency numbers paint a clear picture here. Columbia’s adjusted net rating of 9.9 ranks 74th nationally, while Penn sits at -6.5, checking in at 255th. That’s a 16.4-point gap in adjusted efficiency, which should theoretically translate to Columbia laying double digits on a neutral floor. So why is Penn favored at home?
Start with pace. Penn plays at 72.1 possessions per game (62nd nationally), while Columbia crawls at 68.1 (196th). That four-possession difference matters, but it’s not the whole story. The real answer lies in recent form and venue. Columbia’s last five games show a team that’s been exposed—three losses, all by double digits except the five-point win over Penn on the road. Their defensive rating of 96.3 (44th) looks elite on paper, but they’re allowing 88, 80, and 91 points in their last three losses. Something’s broken.
Penn’s home advantage at The Palestra is real, and their offensive rating of 109.8 (204th) doesn’t tell the full story of a team that just hung 91 on Cornell and beat Princeton. The market’s essentially saying Columbia’s adjusted numbers are inflated by early-season competition, and Penn’s getting points because oddsmakers believe the Lions are regressing to the mean. The 2.5 to 3.5-point spread suggests a coin flip with slight home-court edge, which feels right given Columbia’s recent slide.
Columbia Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Columbia’s offensive efficiency is legitimately impressive. Their 114.0 adjusted offensive rating ranks 75th nationally, and they’re shooting 50.2% from the field (34th) and 39.6% from three (20th). Kenny Noland leads the way at 17.1 points per game, and Zine Eddine Bedri provides interior presence with 12.8 points and 7.4 boards per game (136th in rebounding).
The Lions rank 9th nationally in rebounding at 43.6 per game, which should give them second-chance opportunities against Penn’s 123rd-ranked rebounding team. Their effective field goal percentage of 57.7% (33rd) shows they’re getting quality looks, and their true shooting percentage of 60.3% (57th) confirms they’re efficient scorers.
But here’s the problem: turnovers. Columbia ranks 277th in turnovers per game at 13.5, with a turnover ratio that sits at 274th nationally. Against a Penn team that generates 6.5 steals per game and forces mistakes, that’s a vulnerability. Columbia’s also terrible at forcing turnovers themselves—just 5.6 steals per game ranks 307th. They need to execute in the halfcourt because they’re not creating extra possessions.
Pennsylvania Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Penn’s adjusted defensive rating of 111.9 (271st) is ugly, and their opponent field goal percentage of 44.6% (235th) confirms they struggle to get stops. They’re allowing 77.9 points per game (275th), which means this team lives and dies by their offense.
The good news? Penn can shoot the three. Their 40.1% from deep ranks 12th nationally, and Ethan Roberts (18.0 PPG, 90th nationally) can get buckets. TJ Power adds 15.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game (118th in boards), giving them interior-exterior balance. Their offensive rebounding percentage of 33.7% (97th) is significantly better than Columbia’s 30.7% (195th), which could create extra possessions.
Penn’s also better at protecting the ball—12.2 turnovers per game (177th) versus Columbia’s 13.5 (277th). That’s a full possession advantage per game, and in a game projected around 149 total points, every possession matters. Their faster pace at 72.1 possessions (62nd) should also favor them at home, where they can control tempo and push Columbia out of their comfort zone.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to three factors: three-point shooting, turnovers, and rebounding. Columbia’s 39.6% from three (20th) against Penn’s 33.3% opponent three-point percentage (212th) suggests the Lions will get open looks. But Penn’s 40.1% from deep (12th) against Columbia’s 29.7% opponent three-point percentage (67th) creates an interesting dynamic. Both teams can shoot, but Columbia’s defense is better equipped to contest threes.
The turnover battle heavily favors Penn. Columbia’s 277th-ranked turnover rate combined with their 307th-ranked steal rate means they’re neither protecting the ball nor creating extra possessions. Penn’s 177th in turnovers and 244th in steals—both significantly better than Columbia. In a tight game, that extra possession or two decides outcomes.
Rebounding should favor Columbia’s 9th-ranked unit, but Penn’s 33.7% offensive rebounding percentage (97th) is nothing to dismiss. If Penn crashes the glass and extends possessions, they can overcome Columbia’s size advantage. The key is whether Blair Thompson and Bedri can control the paint or if Power and Dalton Scantlebury can create second chances.
The head-to-head history matters here. Columbia won 72-67 on January 31st, but that was in New York. Penn’s won three of the last four at The Palestra, including 93-78, 84-72, and 92-87 victories. This venue matters, and Columbia’s recent three-game skid suggests they’re vulnerable on the road.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Pennsylvania -2.5 or -3.5. Columbia’s 9-1 record is fool’s gold—they’ve lost three of five, and their adjusted defensive rating (102nd) is getting exposed against quality competition. Penn’s at home in The Palestra, where they’ve historically dominated this matchup, and their three-point shooting (12th nationally) gives them the weapon to exploit Columbia’s recent defensive breakdowns.
The turnover differential tilts toward Penn, and in a game between two teams that want to play in the 70s, ball security matters. Columbia’s inability to force turnovers (307th in steals) means they can’t create transition opportunities, forcing them into halfcourt execution where Penn’s three-point shooting becomes lethal. Give me the Quakers getting points at home. This line should be Penn -5 or -6 based on venue and recent form. We’re getting value on a team that’s playing better basketball right now.
