No. 18 Saint Louis enters Gentile Arena as a massive road favorite, and after digging into the transition data, the Billikens emerge as a clear ATS pick due to their nation-leading 61.1% effective field goal percentage. Currently 23-1 and undefeated in A-10 play, Saint Louis faces a Loyola Chicago squad that has struggled to find any defensive rhythm during a difficult 6−19 campaign.
The Setup: Saint Louis at Loyola Chicago
Saint Louis is laying 18.5 to 19 points on the road at Loyola Chicago, and if your first instinct is to pump the brakes on a road favorite giving nearly three touchdowns, I get it. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t just a good team beating up on a bad team—this is a chasm. The Billikens check in with an adjusted net rating of plus-18.9, ranking 22nd nationally. Loyola Chicago? They’re sitting at minus-17.3, ranking 342nd. That’s a 36-point swing in adjusted efficiency, and when you see that kind of gap in conference play, the market isn’t being disrespectful. It’s being accurate.
Saint Louis rolls into Gentile Arena riding a five-game winning streak, scoring 91.6 points per game (13th nationally) with an offensive rating of 122.6. They’re balanced, they’re deep, and they’ve got five guys averaging double figures. Meanwhile, Loyola Chicago is limping through the A-10 at 3-7, ranking 343rd in defensive rating at 119.2 and struggling to crack 68 points per game offensively. This spread isn’t a trap. It’s a reflection of reality.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Saint Louis at Loyola Chicago
Date: February 13, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Gentile Arena, Chicago, IL
Betting Lines:
- Point Spread: Saint Louis -18.5 to -19
- Over/Under: 155 to 155.5
- Moneyline: Saint Louis -4500, Loyola Chicago +1250
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk about how we got to 18.5. When you’ve got a 36-point gap in adjusted net efficiency, the market is basically screaming that Saint Louis should win this game by 20-plus on a neutral floor. The fact that we’re getting 18.5 on the road tells you the oddsmakers are giving Loyola Chicago about 1.5 to 2 points for home court. That’s light, but it’s justified when you look at the Ramblers’ home performance this season.
The tempo split is massive here. Saint Louis plays at the 17th-fastest pace nationally at 74.8 possessions per game. Loyola Chicago crawls at 63.4, ranking 319th. In a vacuum, that tempo clash should bring the total number of possessions down and potentially tighten the margin. But here’s the thing—Saint Louis has the offensive firepower to score efficiently regardless of pace. They’re shooting 50.7% from the field (28th) with a 58.4% effective field goal percentage (25th). Even if Loyola Chicago grinds this thing to a halt, the Billikens are getting quality looks and converting.
The total sitting at 155 to 155.5 makes sense when you factor in the pace differential. Saint Louis wants to run and score in the 90s. Loyola Chicago wants to slow it down and play in the 60s. Split the difference, account for Saint Louis’s defensive rating of 92.9 (27th), and you land right around 155. The market nailed this one.
Saint Louis Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Saint Louis is 8-1 and playing some of the most complete basketball in the A-10. They rank 39th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.2 and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 98.2. That’s elite on both ends. They’ve won five straight, and four of those wins came by 15 or more points. This isn’t a team that’s sneaking past opponents—they’re dominating them.
Offensively, the Billikens are balanced to a fault. Robbie Avila, Dion Brown, and Trey Green all average 12-plus points per game, with Amari McCottry and Quentin Jones right behind them. That depth matters in February when legs get heavy and rotations tighten. They’re also elite at the free-throw line, shooting 81.3% (1st nationally). When games get tight, they can close at the stripe.
Defensively, Saint Louis is suffocating. They hold opponents to 37.2% from the field (12th) and 28.1% from three (34th). They’re not gambling for steals—they rank 118th in steals per game—but they’re disciplined, they contest shots, and they force bad looks. Against a Loyola Chicago offense that ranks 273rd in offensive rating, this defense should feast.
Loyola Chicago Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Loyola Chicago is 3-7, and the numbers tell you exactly why. They rank 360th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 120.4, which is bottom-tier even by mid-major standards. They’re allowing 75.1 points per game and giving up 43.8% shooting from the field (200th) and 38.2% from three (347th). That’s a disaster against a Saint Louis offense that ranks 13th in scoring.
Offensively, the Ramblers are equally limited. They score just 67.6 points per game (335th) with an offensive rating of 106.1 (273rd). Justin Moore is their best playmaker at 4.8 assists per game (92nd), but he’s surrounded by a roster that struggles to create efficient looks. They shoot 42.2% from the field (309th) and 69.5% from the free-throw line (244th). When you can’t shoot and you can’t get to the line efficiently, you’re in trouble.
The one thing Loyola Chicago does well? They block shots. They rank 63rd nationally at 4.5 blocks per game, led by Miles Rubin’s interior presence. But blocks don’t win games when you’re giving up 119.2 points per 100 possessions on the other end. This is a team that’s lost four of its last five, and the one win came against La Salle, who’s equally struggling.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the first 10 minutes. Saint Louis is going to push tempo, and Loyola Chicago is going to try to slow it down. The question is whether the Ramblers can execute their game plan against a team that ranks 17th in pace and has the offensive firepower to score in transition or in the halfcourt.
Saint Louis’s ability to defend the three-point line is critical here. Loyola Chicago shoots 33.3% from deep (188th), which isn’t great, but it’s their best chance to stay in this game. If the Billikens can hold them to 28-30% from three like they’ve done all season, this game gets out of hand quickly.
On the other end, Loyola Chicago’s interior defense—led by their shot-blocking—could give Saint Louis some problems in the paint. But the Billikens have the guards and the shooting to go around that. Dion Brown, Trey Green, and Amari McCottry can all create off the dribble and knock down perimeter shots. If Loyola Chicago collapses to protect the rim, Saint Louis will pick them apart from outside.
The rebounding battle matters too. Saint Louis ranks 11th nationally at 43.4 rebounds per game, while Loyola Chicago sits at 316th with 32.9. That’s an 11-rebound gap per game, and in a game where possessions matter, extra chances for the Billikens could turn a 15-point win into a 25-point blowout.
Bash’s Best Bet
Saint Louis -18.5
I’m laying the points with Saint Louis. This is a 36-point gap in adjusted net efficiency, and Loyola Chicago doesn’t have the offensive firepower or defensive discipline to keep this within 15. The Billikens have won five straight, four by 15 or more, and they’re clicking on both ends of the floor. Loyola Chicago is 3-7, ranking 343rd in defensive rating and 273rd in offensive rating. They can’t score, they can’t stop anyone, and they’re playing a team that’s rolling.
The tempo clash works in Saint Louis’s favor. Even if Loyola Chicago slows this down, the Billikens are efficient enough to score in the halfcourt. And if Saint Louis gets out in transition? This gets ugly fast. Give me the road favorite laying 18.5. This one covers.
