South Florida dominated the first meeting by 14 points, and the Bulls haven’t slowed down since, leading the AAC in assists and made threes. Despite Florida Atlantic’s solid 9-4 ATS record at home, the Owls are currently bleeding out offensively, making this a prime best bet opportunity for those looking to capitalize on South Florida’s volume scoring.
The Setup: South Florida at Florida Atlantic
South Florida’s laying 4.5 to 5 points at Florida Atlantic on Sunday afternoon, and if you’re scratching your head at that number, you haven’t been paying attention to what’s happened in Boca Raton lately. The Owls are on a five-game skid, getting absolutely throttled in four of those losses, including a 14-point beatdown by this same Bulls squad just three weeks ago. But here’s where it gets interesting: FAU is 9-4 ATS at home this season and 5-2 ATS in their last seven at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena. The market’s giving you South Florida at a number that feels light, but when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread tells a story about home court value versus pure talent differential.
South Florida checks in at #50 nationally in adjusted net rating with a +14.2 mark. Florida Atlantic? They’re sitting at #112 with a +5.4 net rating. That’s an 8.8-point gap in pure efficiency, and after you factor in roughly 3.5 points for home court, you land right around this 5-point spread. The Bulls are #56 in adjusted offensive efficiency (118.1) against FAU’s #117 defensive rating (106.3). That’s a mismatch on paper, but the Owls have been stubborn at home, and these conference rivalry games have a way of playing tighter than the numbers suggest.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET
Location: Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena, Boca Raton, FL
Spread: South Florida -4.5 to -5
Total: 166.5
Moneyline: South Florida -185 | Florida Atlantic +160
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the spread. South Florida’s 17-8 overall and 9-3 in conference play, riding an 8-2 stretch in their last ten games. They just beat Wichita State 66-58 on the road, and before that, they put up 109 against UTSA. The Bulls are scoring 89.0 points per game (#10 nationally) with an offensive rating of 122.2 (#29). They’re elite on the glass at #4 nationally in rebounds per game (42.6) and #14 in offensive rebounding percentage (35.9%). That’s a 3.4-point edge in offensive rebounding over Florida Atlantic, and in a conference game where possessions matter, those second-chance opportunities add up fast.
Florida Atlantic’s countering with a respectable 111.7 adjusted offensive rating (#119) and 106.3 adjusted defensive rating (#117), but they’re bleeding right now. Five straight losses, including that 89-75 loss at South Florida on January 25th. The Owls are 14-11 overall but just 5-5 in their last ten, and their offensive rating has dipped to 113.1 (#136) on the season. The total at 166.5 is where I’m raising an eyebrow. The model projects 160.7 possessions, nearly six points under the market number. These teams played to 164 total points three weeks ago, but that was in Tampa with South Florida controlling tempo. The pace blend here sits at 70.0 possessions per game—moderate, not explosive. South Florida’s at 69.3 (#88) and FAU’s at 70.6 (#43), so we’re not looking at a track meet.
The betting trends scream under: it’s gone under in four of FAU’s last five home games and under in four of the last six head-to-head matchups between these teams. The market’s begging you to take the over, but the efficiency math and recent history suggest otherwise.
South Florida Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bulls are built on volume scoring and rebounding dominance. Josh Omojafo leads the way at 14.7 points per game, but this is a balanced attack with five guys averaging double figures. CJ Brown’s the engine at point guard with 5.2 assists per game (#64 nationally), and Izaiyah Nelson’s a monster on the glass at 9.3 rebounds per game (#32 nationally). South Florida’s shooting 44.5% from the field (#224) and just 33.1% from three (#236), so they’re not blowing you away with efficiency, but they make up for it with sheer volume and offensive rebounding.
The Bulls are generating 17.4 assists per game (#29) with a 1.49 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is solid but not elite. Defensively, they’re vulnerable—78.4 points allowed per game ranks #295 nationally, and their adjusted defensive rating of 103.9 (#79) is good enough to win games but not lockdown. They’re allowing 35.3% from three (#277), which is a problem against teams that can shoot. Florida Atlantic’s not that team right now, but it’s worth noting.
Florida Atlantic Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Owls are hanging their hat on home court and desperation. They’re 11-4 at home overall and 9-4 ATS at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena, which tells you they play up to competition in Boca Raton. Devin Vanterpool’s their best player at 17.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, and Kanaan Carlyle adds 15.6 points per game. The problem? This team’s offense has cratered during the losing streak. They’re averaging just 77.2 points per game over their last ten and shot 30.77% from the field in that Memphis blowout loss.
FAU’s blocking shots at an elite level—5.6 per game (#9 nationally)—but they’re not forcing turnovers (6.2 steals per game, #241). Their adjusted offensive efficiency of 111.7 (#119) is respectable, but they’re shooting just 33.2% from three (#230) and turning it over 12.6 times per game (#278). That 1.07 assist-to-turnover ratio is concerning against a South Florida team that’s generating 9.0 steals per game (#22). The Owls are also getting crushed on the offensive glass, ranking #109 in offensive rebounding percentage (32.5%) compared to South Florida’s #14 ranking.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game’s going to be decided on the glass and at the free-throw line. South Florida’s 3.4-point edge in offensive rebounding percentage is massive in a game where both teams struggle to shoot efficiently from the perimeter. The Bulls are grabbing 15.32 offensive rebounds per game compared to FAU’s 12.76, and those second-chance points will pile up. South Florida’s also shooting 73.4% from the line (#140) compared to FAU’s 71.8% (#198), which matters in a close game.
The tempo’s going to favor South Florida. They want to push pace just enough to get out in transition (358 fast break points on the season) while dominating the offensive glass in the halfcourt. Florida Atlantic needs to slow this down, protect the rim with their shot-blocking, and hope Vanterpool and Carlyle can get hot from the perimeter. The problem? FAU’s shooting just 40.91% from the field over their last five games, and they’ve lost four of those by double digits.
The head-to-head history favors South Florida—they’re 14-4 straight up in the last 18 meetings and won the first matchup this season by 14 points. FAU’s 5-2 ATS in their last seven head-to-head games, which suggests they keep it close at home, but keeping it close and covering 4.5 points are two different things when you’re this broken offensively.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with South Florida and hammering the under. The Bulls are the better team by nearly nine points in net rating, and they’ve got the rebounding edge to control this game even if their shooting’s off. Florida Atlantic’s 9-4 ATS at home, but they’re also on a five-game losing streak where they’ve looked completely lost offensively. South Florida won by 14 in Tampa three weeks ago, and nothing’s changed since then except FAU’s gotten worse.
The play: South Florida -4.5 and Under 166.5. The model projects South Florida by 5.8 and a total of 160.7, which means we’ve got value on both sides. Take the Bulls to cover and this game to stay under the number. South Florida’s going to grind this out with rebounding and defense, and FAU’s offensive struggles continue in what should be a low-possession, ugly conference game.
