Tarleton State has dropped eight of its last ten games and looked completely lost during the second-half collapse in Abilene on Saturday. If you’re hunting for a sharp spread bet, fading a Texans squad that is just 1-4 at home in conference play is the move before tonight’s 8:00 PM tip-off. Get our total pick below.
The Setup: Abilene Christian at Tarleton State
Tarleton State is laying 1.5 points at home against Abilene Christian on Monday night, and if you’re scratching your head at this number, you’re not alone. The Wildcats just beat the Texans 73-59 five days ago, yet here we are with Tarleton favored in the rematch. Look, I get the home court angle—but when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line tells a fascinating story about two teams trending in opposite directions despite identical 12-13 records.
The adjusted efficiency rankings reveal why this spread is razor-thin: Tarleton checks in at #216 nationally with a -3.9 net rating, while Abilene Christian sits at #249 with a -6.8 mark. That’s a 2.9-point gap in the Texans’ favor. But here’s where it gets interesting—ACU ranks #146 defensively compared to Tarleton’s #154, and they’re coming off a dominant defensive performance in that 73-59 win. The Wildcats held Tarleton to just 46.8% shooting and forced them into 14 turnovers while generating 10 steals.
This is a WAC conference battle between two desperate teams trying to salvage their seasons, and the market is essentially calling it a toss-up. The question is whether ACU’s recent dominance in this matchup is real or just a blip.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: Monday, February 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Location: EECU Center
Spread: Tarleton State -1.5 (DraftKings) / -1 (Bovada)
Total: 135.5 (DraftKings) / 134.5 (Bovada)
Moneyline: Tarleton State -130 | Abilene Christian +110
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market is pricing in home court advantage and not much else, which makes sense given how evenly matched these teams are statistically. Tarleton’s 104.2 adjusted offensive efficiency (#261) gives them a slight edge over ACU’s 100.8 mark (#312), but that 3.4-point gap isn’t enough to justify much separation when you factor in the defensive side.
Here’s what jumps out: both teams are turnover disasters. ACU posts a 0.2 turnover ratio (#348 nationally), while Tarleton sits at 0.2 as well (#329). They’re giving the ball away 14-15 times per game, and both teams are elite at generating steals—ACU ranks #10 nationally with 9.6 steals per game, Tarleton is #2 at 10.8. This game could turn into a chaotic mess where the team that protects the ball slightly better walks away with the cover.
The total sitting at 134.5-135.5 feels low when you consider the pace projection of 69.6 possessions and both teams’ offensive capabilities. Tarleton averages 75.7 PPG, ACU sits at 70.4. Even in their recent 73-59 game, they combined for 132 points. The market is banking on defensive intensity in a rivalry rematch, but I’m not convinced these defenses can sustain that level of performance.
The spread makes sense as a home court coin flip. The total? That’s where I see opportunity.
Abilene Christian Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Wildcats bring one massive advantage to this rematch: offensive rebounding. They rank #2 nationally with a 37.2% offensive rebound rate, which is absolutely elite. Against a Tarleton team that’s already struggled on the defensive glass (33.2% OREB% allowed), ACU should generate plenty of second-chance opportunities. In their last meeting, the Wildcats dominated the paint and controlled possessions.
Bradyn Hubbard is the engine here, averaging 16.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG. He’s not a volume rebounder, but he’s efficient around the rim and gets to the line consistently. Rich Smith runs the offense with 3.9 APG, and his ability to manage possessions will be critical given ACU’s turnover issues. The Wildcats have won just three of their last 10 games, but two of those wins came in their last three outings—including that beatdown of Tarleton.
Defensively, ACU’s #146 adjusted ranking is solid for a team with a losing record. They force turnovers with elite steal numbers and can disrupt tempo when locked in. The problem is consistency—they allowed 79 points to Southern Utah and 68 to Utah Valley in recent losses. When the defense travels, they’re competitive. When it doesn’t, they get boat-raced.
Tarleton State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Dior Johnson is the story here, and he’s a legitimate star. The guard ranks #2 nationally with 23.6 PPG, and he’s the only reason Tarleton stays competitive in most games. Freddy Hicks provides secondary scoring at 12.3 PPG and 6.3 RPG, while Chris Mpaka adds 10.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG in the paint. This is a top-heavy roster that lives and dies with Johnson’s shot-making.
The problem? Tarleton has lost eight of their last 10 games and looks completely lost right now. Their 104.2 adjusted offensive efficiency is mediocre, and their 108.0 defensive rating (#154) suggests they can’t stop anybody consistently. They’re 1-4 at home in conference play, which is absolutely brutal for a team trying to establish any home court advantage.
The Texans’ 70.6 pace (#43 nationally) is faster than ACU’s 68.6, which should work in their favor if they can push tempo. But their turnover issues (14.8 per game) and poor shooting in recent games—they shot 28.3% in a loss to Utah Valley and 34.4% against Utah Tech—suggest they’re in a legitimate funk. Johnson can only do so much when nobody else can score.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to three factors: offensive rebounding, turnovers, and Dior Johnson’s shot volume. ACU’s elite offensive rebounding should create extra possessions and easy putback opportunities. If they control the glass like they did in the first meeting, Tarleton will struggle to overcome that disadvantage.
The turnover battle is critical. Both teams are sloppy with the ball, and both generate elite steal numbers. Whoever wins the turnover margin by even 3-4 possessions will have a massive edge in a game projected for under 70 possessions. ACU’s slightly better assist-to-turnover ratio (0.95 vs 0.76) gives them a small edge in ball security.
And then there’s Johnson. If he goes nuclear for 30+ points, Tarleton can absolutely win this game. But ACU just held him in check five days ago, and there’s no reason to think they can’t replicate that defensive game plan. The Wildcats will throw multiple bodies at him, force him to give up the ball, and dare Tarleton’s role players to beat them.
The total is the more intriguing play here. Both teams have gone under in their last four games, but that’s largely because they’re both playing terrible basketball right now. The shooting percentages are down, the turnovers are up, and the offensive flow is nonexistent. But in a rivalry rematch with both teams desperate for a conference win? I expect more urgency and better shot-making than we’ve seen recently.
Bash’s Best Bet
The Play: Over 134.5
I’m not touching this spread. ACU just dominated this matchup, but Tarleton gets home court and a chance to respond. This could go either way, and I’m not laying juice on a coin flip. But the total? That’s where the value sits.
Both teams have the offensive firepower to push this over—Tarleton averages 75.7 PPG, ACU sits at 70.4. Even with recent struggles, we’re talking about two teams that can score when they get in rhythm. The pace projection of 69.6 possessions gives us plenty of opportunities, and ACU’s offensive rebounding should create extra chances. Johnson will get his 20-25 points, Hubbard will get his 15-18, and the role players should chip in enough to push this total over 135.
The recent under trend is real, but it’s also unsustainable. These teams aren’t good enough defensively to consistently hold opponents under 65 points. Give me the over and let the chaos work in our favor.
Best Bet: Over 134.5 (-110)
