While the Bulldogs are scoring over 90 points per game, their bottom-tier scoring defense is walking into a nightmare situational spot against a surging Kentucky squad.
The Setup: Georgia at Kentucky
Kentucky’s laying 7 at home against Georgia on Tuesday night, and if you’re looking at the records and rankings, you’re probably wondering why this spread isn’t bigger. Both teams sit at 17-8, Georgia checks in at #21 in the AP poll while Kentucky’s #25, and Rupp Arena is typically worth more than a touchdown by itself. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line tells you everything you need to know about where these programs actually stand right now.
The adjusted efficiency metrics paint a clearer picture than the rankings suggest. Kentucky posts a +22.2 net rating compared to Georgia’s +19.3, and more importantly, the Wildcats hold a significant defensive edge—#29 in adjusted defensive efficiency versus Georgia’s #53. That 3-point gap in net rating translates almost perfectly to this 7-point spread when you factor in home court, and it’s backed by Kentucky’s 8-2 record in their last 10 games compared to Georgia’s brutal 4-6 stretch. This isn’t about reputation. It’s about two teams heading in opposite directions.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 17, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center, Lexington, KY
Spread: Kentucky -7 (Bovada) / -6.5 (DraftKings)
Total: 161.5
Moneyline: Kentucky -320 / Georgia +260
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on 7 because that’s exactly what the efficiency gap supports. Kentucky’s defensive rating sits at 98.9 compared to Georgia’s 101.9, and in a pace-down SEC environment averaging 70 possessions, those three points of defensive efficiency matter. Georgia’s offense is explosive—121.1 adjusted offensive rating ranks #33 nationally, identical to Kentucky’s mark—but they’re hemorrhaging points on the other end, ranking #297 in opponent points per game at 78.4.
Here’s what jumps off the page: Georgia’s allowing 78.4 points per game while Kentucky’s defense holds opponents to 72.2. In conference play, that gap widens even further. The Bulldogs are 5-7 in SEC games with a -4.33 point differential, while Kentucky’s 8-4 in conference with better defensive discipline. The pace projection of 70 possessions keeps this from becoming a shootout, which naturally favors the team that can get stops.
The total at 161.5 is where I start raising eyebrows. The model projects 169.4, nearly 8 points higher, and the betting trends support that—the over is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings at Rupp Arena. Both teams rank identically in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Georgia’s up-tempo style at 70.8 pace (#40 nationally) should push Kentucky out of their preferred 69.1 tempo. When these offenses get rolling, points come in bunches.
Georgia Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Georgia’s offense is legitimately elite when it’s clicking. They’re scoring 90.3 points per game (#7 nationally) with a 120.4 offensive rating, and they lead the entire country in blocks per game at 6.4. That rim protection matters, especially with their 34.6% offensive rebounding rate (#38) creating second-chance opportunities. Jeremiah Wilkinson leads the charge at 17.1 points per game, with Blue Cain adding 15.4 and 5.7 rebounds.
The problem? They can’t defend anybody right now. That 4-6 stretch in their last 10 games includes allowing 94 to Oklahoma, 86 to Florida, 92 to Texas A&M, and 86 to Tennessee in a one-point loss. Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 101.9 ranks just #53 nationally, and in SEC play specifically, they’re giving up 85.25 points per game. The turnover margin is solid at 0.1 (#34), but when you’re allowing 43% shooting and 32.8% from three, you’re not winning many road games in this conference.
The other concern is their 3-point shooting—31.7% ranks #297 nationally. In a game where Kentucky can pack the paint and dare them to shoot from deep, that’s a massive liability.
Kentucky Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Kentucky’s riding momentum with that 8-2 record in their last 10, and they’re 5-0 straight up in their last five home games. The defense is the foundation—98.9 adjusted defensive rating (#29) with opponents shooting just 41.8% from the field (#62) and 31.1% from three (#54). Malachi Moreno anchors the interior with 7.1 rebounds per game, while Otega Oweh (13.7 PPG) and Denzel Aberdeen (12.9 PPG, 3.3 APG) provide balanced scoring.
The Wildcats’ assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.58 is significantly better than Georgia’s 1.31, and they’re protecting the ball with just 10.2 turnovers per game (#56). That discipline matters in close SEC games. They’re also better at the free-throw line percentage-wise than Georgia in recent games, which could be the difference in a one-possession finish.
The one area where Kentucky struggles? Offensive rebounding. Their 31.4% rate (#163) is a clear weakness, and Georgia’s 34.6% mark (#38) creates a 3.2-percentage-point gap. If the Bulldogs can crash the glass and create extra possessions, they’ve got a puncher’s chance to keep this close.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Georgia can score enough to overcome their defensive deficiencies. Kentucky’s going to get good looks—their 121.1 adjusted offensive efficiency against Georgia’s 101.9 adjusted defensive efficiency creates a massive mismatch on paper. The Wildcats should be able to execute in the halfcourt, and with Rupp Arena rocking on a Tuesday night, the Bulldogs’ shaky defensive rotations will get exposed.
Georgia’s best path to covering is offensive rebounding and transition opportunities. They’ve scored 540 fast-break points this season compared to Kentucky’s 410, and if they can turn defensive rebounds into quick outlets, they can bypass Kentucky’s halfcourt defense. But here’s the problem: Kentucky’s taking care of the ball with that 1.58 assist-to-turnover ratio, which limits transition chances.
The pace battle is critical. Georgia wants 72-73 possessions to maximize their offensive firepower. Kentucky prefers 67-68 possessions to grind this into a defensive slugfest. The projected pace of 70 possessions splits the difference, but in Rupp Arena, Kentucky typically controls tempo. If this game stays in the 68-possession range, the Wildcats should control it down the stretch.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the Kentucky -7 and taking the over 161.5. The spread feels right because the efficiency gap supports it, and Kentucky’s home dominance in this series (5-0 SU in their last five at Rupp) isn’t a coincidence. Georgia’s 4-6 slide includes too many defensive breakdowns, and Kentucky’s got the discipline to exploit it.
But the total is where the real value sits. That 169.4 projection is nearly 8 points higher than the market, and both teams rank #33 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Georgia’s going to push pace, Kentucky’s going to execute in the halfcourt, and we’re looking at 72-75 combined possessions with two efficient offenses. The over has cashed in four of the last five head-to-head meetings at Rupp for a reason—when these teams meet, points happen. Give me Kentucky -7 and over 161.5, and let’s watch the Wildcats take care of business at home.
