Looking at the efficiency math, it’s clear why the bookmakers have the Billikens favored by nearly double digits. We break down the Robbie Avila vs. Tyrell Ward matchup to find the betting edge tonight.
The Setup: VCU at Saint Louis
Saint Louis is laying 8 points at home against VCU on Friday night, and the market’s telling you something important: this isn’t your typical A-10 slugfest between conference rivals. The Billikens are ranked 18th in the AP poll at 24-2, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, they’re legitimately elite on both ends. VCU rolls in at 21-6 with five straight wins, but here’s the thing—Saint Louis owns the top-ranked defense in the nation by opponent field goal percentage at 36.5%, and they’re shooting 51.7% themselves, third nationally. That’s a 15.27-point shooting margin differential compared to VCU’s 3.54. The Rams have won this series historically, going 15-4 straight up in the last 19 meetings, but this Saint Louis team is different. My model projects the Billikens by 13.2, meaning we’ve got 5.2 points of potential value on the wrong side of this spread.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: VCU at Saint Louis
Date: Friday, February 20, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Chaifetz Arena, St. Louis, MO
TV: Conference Game (A-10)
Betting Lines:
Spread: Saint Louis -8 (Bovada) / -7.5 (DraftKings)
Total: 165 (Bovada) / 165.5 (DraftKings)
Moneyline: Saint Louis -370, VCU +285
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on 8 because Saint Louis has an 8.5-point net rating advantage in adjusted efficiency—they’re 20th nationally with a +24.8 net rating compared to VCU’s 44th-ranked +16.3. That’s real separation. The Billikens check in at 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd defensively, while VCU sits 42nd and 78th respectively. Saint Louis plays at a slightly faster pace (72.7 possessions versus 69.9), which should generate around 71 possessions in this matchup—not a pace-up game, but enough to let both offenses operate.
Here’s where it gets interesting: my model projects Saint Louis by 13.2, which includes a 3.5-point home court advantage and a 10% conference game boost. That’s a full 5.2 points away from the market number. The Billikens are 15-9-1 against the spread this season, but they’re just 2-6 ATS in their last eight against VCU. The Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against Saint Louis. The market’s respecting the historical context more than the current efficiency gap.
The total at 165 is particularly fascinating. My model projects 173—eight full points higher. Saint Louis averages 90.2 points per game (6th nationally) while VCU puts up 83.7 (34th). The under has hit in four of Saint Louis’s last five home games and four of VCU’s last five road games, which explains why the market is suppressing this number. But when these teams meet, it goes over—five of the last seven matchups have cleared the total.
VCU Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
VCU’s riding a five-game winning streak and they’ve been excellent on the road, going 8-3 straight up away from home. The Rams generate 119.7 points per 100 possessions offensively, which ranks 41st nationally in offensive rating. They shoot 36.5% from three (54th) with a 54.8% effective field goal percentage (62nd), and their 59.7% true shooting percentage sits 38th nationally. That’s quality offense.
The problem is they’re facing the nation’s best defense by opponent field goal percentage. Saint Louis holds teams to 36.5% shooting and 27.6% from three—both second nationally. VCU’s balanced scoring attack features five players averaging between 9.4 and 13.1 points, led by Terrence Hill Jr. at 13.1 per game. Barry Evans provides 6.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists, giving them interior presence.
Defensively, VCU ranks 88th in defensive rating at 104.0, allowing 72.6 points per game. They block 4.7 shots per game (32nd nationally) and force opponents into 43.2% shooting. That’s respectable, but Saint Louis is shooting over 50% as a team. The Rams turn the ball over just 11.0 times per game with a solid assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.33, so they protect possessions well.
Saint Louis Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Saint Louis is 24-2 and ranked for a reason—they’re elite on both ends. The Billikens rank 18th nationally in offensive rating at 124.1 points per 100 possessions, and they do it with absurd efficiency. That 51.7% field goal percentage ranks third nationally, their 40.8% three-point shooting is second, and their 61.0% effective field goal percentage is third. The 64.0% true shooting percentage is second in the country. They don’t just score—they obliterate defenses with shooting quality.
Robbie Avila anchors things at 12.4 points and 4.8 rebounds while dishing 3.4 assists from the center position. Dion Brown adds 12.4 points and 6.7 boards, while Trey Green, Amari McCottry, and Quentin Jones all score between 10.8 and 12.3 points. That’s five guys in double figures with a 1.54 assist-to-turnover ratio—19.1 assists per game ranks sixth nationally.
The defense is suffocating. That 93.2 defensive rating ranks first nationally, allowing just 67.8 points per game. They rebound at 41.9 boards per game (7th) with 31.12 defensive rebounds per contest. The only blemish? They just lost at Rhode Island 81-76, failing to cover as 9.5-point favorites. That was their first loss since December, and it came on the road in conference play. How they respond at home matters.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two areas: shooting quality and pace control. Saint Louis holds a massive 4.3-percentage-point advantage in true shooting and a 6.2-point edge in effective field goal percentage. When VCU’s offense—which generates 120.0 points per 100 possessions in adjusted efficiency—runs into Saint Louis’s 97.8 adjusted defensive rating, my model shows an 18.8-point mismatch favoring the Billikens. Going the other way, Saint Louis’s 122.6 adjusted offensive rating against VCU’s 103.8 adjusted defensive rating creates a 22.2-point advantage for the home team.
The pace should settle around 71 possessions, which slightly favors Saint Louis’s preferred tempo. VCU wants to control the glass—they grab 31.1% of available offensive rebounds compared to Saint Louis’s 25.7%—but the Billikens dominate the defensive glass at 31.12 boards per game. That’s a 5.4-percentage-point rebounding edge for the home team.
The head-to-head history shows VCU winning seven of the last ten meetings, covering 7-3 ATS in that span. But look at the recent result: Saint Louis won 71-62 at VCU back on January 8th. The Billikens are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and 5-0 straight up at Chaifetz Arena in their last five. VCU’s road success is real, but they haven’t seen a defense this complete all season.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 8 points with Saint Louis and taking the over 165. Yeah, I know—my model says the Billikens should win by 13, so why not buy the hook and take 7.5? Because this is a conference game between teams that know each other, and VCU’s got enough offensive firepower to keep it within single digits if Saint Louis has an off shooting night. But they won’t have an off shooting night—they’re shooting 51.7% for the season and just dropped 102 on Dayton at home.
The over is the stronger play. Both teams rank in the top 42 nationally in offensive rating, the pace should generate 71 possessions, and these teams have gone over in five of their last seven meetings. The market’s overreacting to recent under trends without accounting for the offensive efficiency both teams bring. Saint Louis averages 90.2 at home, VCU puts up 83.7 overall, and my model projects 173 total points. Give me Saint Louis -8 and over 165 in a game where the home team’s shooting quality overwhelms VCU’s defensive limitations.
