Indiana just let a 10-day contract player in Washington drop a career-high 25 points on them, and now they have to face a Dallas team that is desperate to end a double-digit skid. The market is laying a bucket with the Mavs on the road, and even with the injuries, the efficiency gap suggests the Pacers are the ones who should be catching double digits.
The Mavericks are getting 2.5 points in Indianapolis on Sunday, and that line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math. Dallas sits at 19-36 with a -3.4 net rating. Indiana’s even worse at 15-42 with a -7.4 net rating. The projection lands this game at a virtual pick’em—a 0.0-point margin after accounting for home court—which means laying anything with either side feels like lighting money on fire. But the market’s asking you to back a Pacers team that’s four points worse per 100 possessions over the full season, and that’s exactly the spot where Indiana burns you.
Dallas is riding a 10-game losing streak, but the underlying numbers tell you this isn’t a team that’s quit. They’re posting a 110.1 offensive rating against a 113.5 defensive rating, and while that’s not pretty, it’s miles ahead of Indiana’s 108.5 offensive rating and 115.9 defensive mark. The Pacers just got swept in a back-to-back by Washington—Washington—losing 131-118 on Friday with Alondes Williams dropping a career-high 25 on them. The efficiency gap is too wide to ignore here, even with Dallas missing Cooper Flagg to a left foot sprain and Max Christie questionable with a left ankle issue.
The total sits at 232.0, and my model projects 228.9. That’s a 3.1-point edge to the under in a game where both offenses are operating well below league average. The pace blend comes in at 102.2 possessions—right in line with both teams’ season averages—but when you’re dealing with two squads shooting 56.5% and 55.8% true shooting respectively, more possessions doesn’t mean more points. It means more chances to clank shots. I’m taking the points all day long with Dallas, and the under screams value in a matchup between two teams that can’t score consistently.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers
- Date & Time: Sunday, February 22, 2026, 5:00 ET
- Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- TV: FanDuel SN IN (Home) | KFAA-TV, Mavs.com, NBA League Pass (Away)
- Spread: Indiana Pacers +2.5 (-110) | Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
- Total: 232.0 (Over -123 / Under -111)
- Moneyline: Indiana Pacers +110 | Dallas Mavericks -135
Why This Line Exists
The market’s giving Indiana 2.5 points at home, and on the surface, that makes sense. Home court is typically worth 2-3 points, and these teams are close enough in the standings that a pick’em feels reasonable. But the net rating gap tells a different story. Dallas is four points better per 100 possessions over the full season—a medium-level edge that compounds over 102 possessions. That’s the difference between a coin flip and a game Dallas should win by 4-5 points in a neutral setting.
The Mavericks are 5-19 on the road, which is ugly, but Indiana’s 10-18 at home. Neither team defends the home floor, and the Pacers are coming off a six-game road trip where they went 2-4 and just got embarrassed by the Wizards twice. Dallas lost to Minnesota on Friday, but they hung around against an Anthony Edwards 40-point explosion and only lost by 11. The possessions math tells a different story than the records suggest. When you’re dealing with a 110.1 offensive rating against Indiana’s 115.9 defensive rating, Dallas should generate clean looks all night. The Pacers allow 115.9 points per 100 possessions, and the Mavericks’ offense—even without Flagg—should exploit that.
The total at 232.0 is set for a track meet, but the pace blend at 102.2 possessions is barely above league average. Dallas plays at 102.5 pace, Indiana at 101.9. This isn’t a Pacers team that pushes tempo anymore—not without Tyrese Haliburton running the show. Andrew Nembhard is questionable with a lower-back injury, and if he sits, Indiana’s already-shaky offense loses its primary playmaker. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup: two bad teams grinding through possessions in a game that stays under the number.
Dallas Mavericks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Mavericks are a mess right now, but the efficiency metrics suggest they’re not as bad as a 10-game losing streak indicates. They’re scoring 113.9 points per game on 47.0% shooting and 34.2% from three, and while those numbers aren’t elite, they’re functional. Naji Marshall is leading the charge at 15.1 points per game on 52.6% shooting, and P.J. Washington is chipping in 14.1 points and 7.1 rebounds. The problem is defense—they’re allowing 113.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks in the bottom third of the league.
Cooper Flagg’s absence hurts, but Dallas has enough depth to compensate. Khris Middleton stepped up with 18 points against Minnesota, and Marvin Bagley posted 15 points and 13 rebounds. The Mavericks are getting contributions across the roster, and their 56.5% true shooting percentage is actually higher than Indiana’s 55.8% mark. The clutch numbers are mediocre—40.1% shooting in close games with a 13-22 record—but this game shouldn’t come down to the final five minutes. Dallas should control the pace and grind this one out.
Daniel Gafford is questionable with a right ankle injury, which could shift minutes to Bagley and Dwight Powell. That’s not ideal, but Indiana’s frontcourt isn’t exactly imposing. The Mavericks are averaging 10.1 offensive rebounds per game, and they should own the glass against a Pacers team that’s allowing 32.5 defensive rebounds per contest. If Dallas can win the possession battle and limit turnovers—they’re at 12.7% turnover rate, tied with Indiana—they’ll cover this number comfortably.
Indiana Pacers Breakdown: The Other Side
The Pacers are a disaster right now, and the numbers back it up. They’re scoring 111.2 points per game on 44.9% shooting and 34.7% from three, but their 108.5 offensive rating is one of the worst in the league. Pascal Siakam is questionable with a left hamstring issue and has already missed three of the last five games. He’s their best player at 23.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, and without him, Indiana’s offense falls apart. Andrew Nembhard is also questionable with a lower-back injury, which leaves the Pacers dangerously thin in the backcourt.
Ivica Zubac was acquired in a trade from the Clippers but hasn’t played yet due to a left ankle sprain. That leaves Jay Huff and Micah Potter as the primary big men, and neither is a rim protector. Indiana’s 115.9 defensive rating is bottom-five in the league, and they’re allowing opponents to shoot 52.1% effective field goal percentage. The Mavericks should get clean looks all night, and Dallas’s 53.0% effective field goal percentage is actually better than Indiana’s 52.1% mark—a gap that’s within noise but still tilts slightly toward the visitors.
The clutch stats are even worse for Indiana. They’re shooting 43.0% in close games with a 10-18 record, and their -1.5 plus-minus in clutch situations suggests they fold under pressure. Aaron Nesmith is out with a right ankle sprain, which removes another rotation piece. The Pacers are 5-24 on the road and 10-18 at home, but even the home splits don’t inspire confidence. This is a team that’s treading water in the lottery race, and they just got swept by Washington in consecutive games. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the home underdog.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
The pace blend at 102.2 possessions sets the stage for a grind-it-out affair, and the efficiency math favors Dallas across the board. The Mavericks’ offense against Indiana’s defense creates a -5.0 points per 100 possessions mismatch—not huge, but meaningful over 102 possessions. That’s roughly 5 points of expected value for Dallas on the offensive end. Flip it around, and Indiana’s offense against Dallas’s defense generates a -5.8 mismatch, which is even worse for the Pacers. Over 102 possessions, that’s another 6 points leaning toward Dallas.
The shooting metrics are basically priced correctly. Dallas’s 56.5% true shooting is 0.8 percentage points better than Indiana’s 55.8%, and the effective field goal gap is 0.9 percentage points. Those are within noise, so you’re not getting a massive edge on shooting quality. But the turnover rates are identical at 12.7%, and the offensive rebounding is nearly even—22.5% for Dallas versus 22.3% for Indiana. This game comes down to which team executes better in the halfcourt, and Dallas has the better offensive system and the better net rating.
The injury situation tilts this further toward Dallas. If Siakam and Nembhard both sit, Indiana loses its two best offensive players. Even if one of them plays, they’re compromised. Dallas is missing Flagg, but Middleton and Bagley have stepped up. The Mavericks are 5-19 on the road, but they’ve been competitive in losses—they’re just 19-36 overall because they can’t close games. In a matchup against a Pacers team that’s even worse in the clutch, Dallas should finally break through. The possessions math tells a different story than the losing streak suggests, and the market’s disrespecting Dallas here.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Mavericks -2.5 for 2 units.
The projection lands this game at a pick’em, which gives Dallas a 2.5-point edge against the spread. That’s a medium-level edge, and in a matchup between two lottery teams, you take the side with the better net rating and the better offensive system. The Mavericks are four points better per 100 possessions over the full season, and that gap should show up over 102 possessions. Indiana’s coming off a back-to-back loss to Washington, and if Siakam or Nembhard sits, the Pacers don’t have the firepower to keep pace.
The risk here is Dallas’s road record and the 10-game losing streak. If the Mavericks are mentally checked out, this game could slip away. But the underlying numbers suggest Dallas is still competing, and they’ve hung around in recent losses. The efficiency gap is too wide to ignore here, and I’m betting on the better team to finally break through against a Pacers squad that’s treading water. I also like the under 232.0 for 1 unit as a secondary play. The projection at 228.9 gives you a 3.1-point edge, and with two offenses operating below league average, this number points to under. Take the Mavericks and the under, and let the possessions math do the work.
