The Kings are currently dragging a franchise-record 16-game losing streak into Memphis, and with their two best players officially out for the year, this is a textbook situational spot to back the home favorite. Sacramento is a staggering 3-26 on the road, making the Grizzlies a high-probability ATS pick against a team that has clearly shifted its focus to the draft lottery.
The Setup: Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is laying 4.5 at home against a Sacramento team that’s lost 16 straight games and just watched their season implode with Sabonis and LaVine going under the knife. The Kings are 3-26 on the road. The Grizzlies are missing Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Santi Aldama, and three other rotation pieces. And yet, this line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math. My model projects Memphis by 6.2 points, giving the Grizzlies 1.7 points of value against this 4.5-point spread. The efficiency gap is too wide to ignore here—Memphis holds an 8.3-point per 100 possession advantage in net rating, and Sacramento’s defensive rating of 120.1 is among the worst in basketball. Even with Memphis playing shorthanded, the possession math tells a different story than this compressed number suggests.
The market’s disrespecting Memphis here. Yes, they’re 21-34 and missing their best player. But they’re facing a Kings team that’s completely shut it down, playing out the string with a rookie center and a rotation that’s been gutted by injuries and season-ending surgeries. This is exactly the spot where a bad home favorite still covers because the opponent has nothing left to play for.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Monday, February 23, 2026
Time: 8:00 ET
Location: FedExForum
TV: FanDuel SN SE (Home), NBC Sports CA, NBA League Pass (Away)
Current Odds (Bovada):
Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Memphis -185 | Sacramento +160
Total: 233.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on 4.5 because Memphis is missing five players, including Ja Morant, and books are hesitant to hang a big number on a sub-.500 home team. But the projection says Memphis by 6.2, which means there’s 1.7 points of edge on the home side. That gap exists because the efficiency numbers are screaming louder than the injury report.
Sacramento’s defensive rating sits at 120.1—that’s bottom-five territory. Memphis checks in at 115.5 on defense, which isn’t great, but it’s nearly five points per 100 possessions better. On offense, the Grizzlies post a 113.1 rating compared to Sacramento’s 109.4. Add it all up and you get an 8.3-point net rating advantage for Memphis. Over an expected 100.9 possessions, that efficiency gap compounds into real margin.
The pace blend of 100.9 possessions keeps this game moving—both teams play above 100 pace, so we’re looking at more trips up and down the floor than your average matchup. More possessions means efficiency differences get magnified. Memphis doesn’t need to be whole to beat a Kings team that’s given up. They just need to be competent, and Ty Jerome running the show with Jock Landale anchoring the paint gives them enough structure to exploit Sacramento’s defensive breakdowns.
The total sits at 233.5, and the projection comes in at 231.1, creating a 2.4-point edge toward the under. That makes sense in a game where Memphis should control tempo and Sacramento lacks the firepower to keep pace without Sabonis, LaVine, and De’Andre Hunter.
Sacramento Kings Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Kings are 12-46 and riding a franchise-record 16-game losing streak. They’re 3-26 on the road, which tells you everything about their ability to compete away from home. After Sabonis and LaVine opted for season-ending surgery, Sacramento waved the white flag. DeMar DeRozan is still producing—20 points in their last game—but he’s playing for pride at this point. Keegan Murray adds 14.9 points per game, and Malik Monk provides some secondary scoring when he’s healthy, but this roster is held together with duct tape.
Sacramento’s 109.4 offensive rating ranks near the bottom of the league, and their 120.1 defensive rating is a disaster. They’re giving up 120 points per 100 possessions, which means even mediocre offenses carve them up. Their true shooting percentage of 55.7% is respectable, but they turn the ball over at a manageable 12.9% rate. The problem is they can’t stop anyone. Rookie Maxime Raynaud has taken over center duties and posted 16 points and 12 rebounds in their last outing, but he’s learning on the fly against NBA competition.
In clutch situations—last five minutes, score within five—the Kings are 8-16 with a minus-1.4 point differential. They shoot just 23.5% from three in crunch time, which means they can’t close games even when they’re competitive. This isn’t a team built to hang around and steal one late.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis is 21-34, sitting 11th in the West and playing out a lost season. But they’re not tanking—they’re just injured. Ja Morant has been out since January 21 with a UCL sprain, and the latest update says he won’t be back until at least early March. Zach Edey is out for another six weeks with an ankle injury. Santi Aldama is sidelined with a knee issue. Brandon Clarke remains out. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is done for the year. Kyle Anderson is doubtful. This roster is held together by Ty Jerome, who’s averaging 19.3 points and 5.7 assists while shooting 50.6% from the field and 39.5% from three.
Jerome has been a revelation, running the offense with efficiency and making smart decisions. His 1.7 turnovers per game show he’s taking care of the ball, and his 113.1 offensive rating reflects how well Memphis moves the ball even without Morant. Jock Landale has stepped into the starting center role and provides rim protection and rebounding. The Grizzlies still play at a 101.6 pace, which keeps them in rhythm and generates enough possessions to lean on their efficiency advantage.
Memphis posts a 57.0% true shooting percentage and a 53.3% effective field goal percentage—both better than Sacramento’s marks. They grab offensive rebounds at a 25.8% clip, giving them second-chance opportunities. In clutch situations, Memphis is 12-21 with a minus-1.9 differential, which isn’t great, but they’re not facing a team that can exploit that weakness. The Grizzlies’ 115.5 defensive rating is middling, but against a Kings offense that can’t score, it’s more than enough.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the defensive end, where Memphis holds a clear advantage. Sacramento’s 120.1 defensive rating means they’re hemorrhaging points every night. Memphis doesn’t need to be elite offensively—they just need to be competent. With Ty Jerome orchestrating and shooters like Cam Spencer and Taylor Hendricks spacing the floor, the Grizzlies should generate enough clean looks to hit their 117.7-point projection.
The pace blend of 100.9 possessions amplifies Memphis’s efficiency edge. Over that many trips, an 8.3-point per 100 possession net rating advantage translates into roughly 8.4 total points of margin. Factor in a 2.0-point home-court boost, and you land right around that 6.2-point projected margin. The Grizzlies also hold a 1.3-percentage-point edge in both true shooting and effective field goal percentage, which speaks to better shot selection and execution. Their 1.0-percentage-point advantage in offensive rebounding rate gives them extra possessions to extend the margin.
Sacramento’s offense runs through DeRozan and Murray at this point, but neither has the supporting cast to sustain scoring runs. Maxime Raynaud is a willing rebounder, but he’s not a rim protector, and Memphis can attack the paint with Landale and get to the line. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup—Memphis controls the tempo, forces Sacramento into tough shots, and pulls away in the second half when the Kings’ lack of depth becomes glaring.
The total projection of 231.1 points suggests a lower-scoring affair than the 233.5 market number. Memphis should dictate pace and limit transition opportunities for Sacramento, keeping possessions in the halfcourt where their defensive structure holds up. The 2.4-point edge toward the under reflects that dynamic.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Memphis -4.5 for 2 units. The projection gives us 1.7 points of value, and the 8.3-point net rating gap is the foundation of this call. Sacramento is 3-26 on the road and has shut it down for the season. Memphis, even without Ja Morant and half their rotation, still has enough structure and efficiency to cover a short number at home. Ty Jerome’s playmaking and Memphis’s defensive rating advantage over a Kings team that can’t guard anyone makes this the right side.
The risk is obvious—Memphis is missing five players, and if Jerome has an off night or the Grizzlies lose focus against a tanking opponent, this game could stay close. But I’ve seen this movie before. Bad teams on the road with nothing to play for get run out of the gym by mediocre home teams that still have some pride. The possessions math tells a different story than the injury report, and I’m trusting the efficiency gap to hold.
BASH’S BEST BET: Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 for 2 units.
