RBD breaks down this NBA Play-In betting spot, weighing models, trends, and Joel Embiid’s absence in his latest prediction.
Orlando at Philadelphia
NBA Prediction and Analysis
I occasionally read predictions from some of the touts that pollute the sports betting industry.
I do it for three reasons.
First, for laughs.
Second, I hope that most of them aren’t on the side that I’m betting on that day.
Third, when I have no play on a game I want to watch on TV I look to them for Fade action.
Here are two of the ridiculous things I saw this morning.
One:
“For this NBA Play-In Tournament contest, we are going to bet against Magic with our pick. One way of doing this is by siding with the opposition.”
One way?
What?
Is there another way??!!
Two:
“Philadelphia finished the season in strong fashion with a decisive victory over Milwaukee.”
Helloooo. The Bucks are under investigation by the league for sitting their starters. The win over Milwaukee is totally irrelevant and has no business being a part of a handicapping analysis for Philadelphia’s game today.
But I digress.
Let’s get back to business with tonight’s play.
The handicapping models I’ve developed over the years are based on math. I check the injury reports before making my decisions but I don’t let it override what my numbers tell me to do because unless it’s a late scratch injuries are factored into the line the books put out.
But as I stated in a recent article, there is one exception – I don’t bet Philadelphia if Joel Embiid is not in the lineup. I did so once this season and got burned, badly, and vowed to avoid doing it again.
Then, about a week later, I wanted to bet on Philly.
I checked the injury report. Embiid was not on it.
I placed my bet, tuned in to watch the game, and saw Embiid sitting on the bench.
Philadelphia played the night before, and because I don’t watch a lot of NBA I wasn’t aware of the coach’s tendency to sit him in game two of B2B’s.
Screwed myself out of a unit there so I’m 0-2 on betting the 76ers when Embiid doesn’t play.
And I’m hoping tonight isn’t strike three because I’m going back to Philadelphia again with Embiid out due to having his appendix removed (been there, done that, not fun.)
I’m getting a small line of just -1′ (opened at -2, down to -1′ at two of our sponsors) with JE out (I’m getting tired of saying “Embiid” into the mic and having it appear as “embed” in the sentence I’m dictating so he’s JE for the rest of this article.)
And I have this:
WF1 says Orlando should be the Favorite.
WF1 had a record of 39-50 on Rd teams during the regular season, a 57% edge on a Fade.
That’s just a hair under the 58% I usually use as the cutoff limit for when I’ll make a bet.
Orlando also just misses qualifying for an Asterisk Spot to Fade, short by half of a point.
One of my Cardinal rules of sports betting is “Don’t force a play – it either qualifies or it doesn’t.”
The same as horseshoes or hand grenades, “close” doesn’t count.
But I’m ignoring that rule, too.
Against my better judgment based on years of sports betting experience I’m taking a game that’s 1% under my usual cut off and I’m also forcing a play that misses qualifying by the hook.
Why?
Because I want action on tonight’s game.
Because I have a little bit of profit left over from the regular season.
Because I think the odds of me going 0-3 on an Embiid-less Sixer team is less likely than 1-2.
But mostly because of a note I made during the last month of the season. The note says, “Orlando has no heart. Beware using them in the postseason.”
Unfortunately I didn’t write down the game I made the note about so I can double check the box score. I just remember seeing them collapse at home in the fourth quarter and making the note for future use.
Like tonight.
Philly took two of three during the regular season.
In their first meeting the 76ers won by 12 points.
And JE was out.
In the second meeting the 76ers lost by 41 points.
And JE was out.
In the third and most recent meeting the 76ers won by 12.
And JE was in.
My play:
Phil -1′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 0-1
Review: My Under in Port/Phx was dead in Q1 where they put up 64 points
