If you’re blindly hammering the over just because Alabama leads the nation in scoring, you’re ignoring the “possession math” that often kicks in during late-season SEC grinds. Bryan Bash breaks down why the under is actually his primary best bet total tonight, identifying a situational spot where Mississippi State’s offensive limitations could stall the Tide’s track-meet tempo.
The Setup: Mississippi State at Alabama
Alabama’s laying 14.5 points at Coleman Coliseum on Wednesday night against Mississippi State, and the efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know about why. The Crimson Tide check in at #6 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 126.8, while the Bulldogs sit at #91 defensively at 105.0. That’s a 21.8-point mismatch when Alabama has the ball, and when you’re dealing with a team that scores 92.6 points per game—leading the entire country—that’s a problem Mississippi State can’t solve.
But here’s where this gets interesting: Mississippi State is 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games, and Alabama is just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home. The market knows Alabama should win this game comfortably. The question is whether the Tide can stay focused enough to cover two touchdowns against a Bulldogs squad that’s shown some fight away from Starkville. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Alabama’s net rating advantage sits at 17.8 points, and their #20 national ranking in adjusted net efficiency (+24.4) dwarfs Mississippi State’s #99 mark (+6.6). This isn’t a coin flip—it’s a question of margin.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Mississippi State (13-14) at #17 Alabama (20-7)
Date: Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
Conference: SEC
Spread: Alabama -14 to -14.5
Total: 174.5 to 175.5
Moneyline: Alabama -1400 | Mississippi State +750
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the obvious: Alabama should win this game. They’re 9-1 straight up in the last ten meetings, and they beat Mississippi State 97-82 in Starkville just five weeks ago. The Tide are rolling winners of five straight, including road wins at Auburn and LSU. They’re scoring at an elite level, shooting 60.0% true shooting percentage (#33 nationally), and they protect the ball better than almost anyone in college basketball with a 0.1 turnover ratio (#2 nationally).
The 14.5-point spread reflects Alabama’s offensive firepower meeting Mississippi State’s defensive vulnerability. The Bulldogs rank #324 in defensive rating at 115.0, and they’re allowing 83.9 points per game (#357 nationally). When Alabama’s averaging 92.6 per night and pushing pace at 74.0 possessions (#6 in tempo), you’re looking at a game that could easily hit 180-plus points if both teams get up and down.
But here’s the wrinkle: Alabama hasn’t been covering lately. That 1-5 ATS mark at home isn’t a fluke—they’ve failed to cover against South Carolina (-17.5), Arkansas (-4.5), and LSU (-7.5) in their last three home games despite winning all of them. They’re winning, but they’re not blowing teams out relative to expectations. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has quietly covered four of their last five road games, including a backdoor cover at South Carolina last Friday. The market might be giving you a number that’s a point or two too high based on Alabama’s recent covering trends.
Mississippi State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bulldogs aren’t good, but they’re not helpless either. Josh Hubbard is a legitimate scorer at 21.2 points per game (#9 nationally), and Jayden Epps adds 15.7 PPG when healthy. The problem? Epps is questionable with a knee injury after exiting last week’s game at South Carolina, and losing your second-leading scorer against the nation’s top-scoring offense is a recipe for disaster.
Mississippi State does two things well: they rebound (39.4 RPG, #32 nationally) and they block shots (4.5 BPG, #42). Quincy Ballard and Shawn Jones Jr. give them size inside, and they’re not getting physically dominated on the glass. The Bulldogs also defend the three-point line reasonably well at 31.7% allowed (#72), which matters against an Alabama team that can get hot from deep.
The fatal flaw is their inability to stop anyone consistently. That #324 defensive rating is brutal, and they’re allowing 79.3 points per game to teams that don’t average anywhere near what Alabama puts up. They’ve scored 90-plus in two of their last three games, but they’ve also allowed 97, 85, and 88 in that stretch. This is a team that can’t get stops when it matters.
Alabama Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Alabama’s offense is a buzzsaw. Labaron Philon Jr. (21.4 PPG, #8 nationally) and Aden Holloway (18.2 PPG) form one of the best backcourt duos in college basketball, and they’re surrounded by shooters who can space the floor. The Tide assist on 16.5 buckets per game (#47), they shoot 35.6% from three (#84), and they get to the free-throw line and convert at 76.4% (#42). This is a complete offensive attack with no real weaknesses.
The pace is the key here. Alabama plays at 74.0 possessions per game, which is top-10 nationally. Mississippi State prefers a slower tempo at 66.4 (#208), but they won’t be able to dictate pace in Coleman Coliseum. When Alabama gets out and runs—and they will—the Bulldogs are going to struggle to keep up defensively. The Tide score 12.63 three-pointers per game, and they create 350 fast break points on the season. This is a team built to run opponents out of the gym.
The concern? Alabama’s defense has slipped. They rank #265 in defensive rating at 111.3, and they’re allowing 83.9 points per game. Against Arkansas, they gave up 115 in a wild shootout. Against Auburn, they allowed 92. They’re winning because they’re outscoring everyone, not because they’re locking teams down. If Mississippi State can keep this game in the 80s and make enough shots, they might hang around longer than expected.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Alabama stays engaged for 40 minutes or whether they cruise into complacency mode. The Tide have beaten Mississippi State five straight times, including three blowouts by 28, 38, and 32 points. This is a team they’ve owned, and there’s a real danger of looking ahead to bigger games down the stretch.
The assist-to-turnover ratio tells the story of ball security: Alabama sits at 1.67, while Mississippi State checks in at 1.14. The Tide take care of the ball, and they make you pay when you turn it over—they’ve scored 331 points off turnovers this season. If Mississippi State gets careless with the ball, this game could get ugly fast.
The rebounding battle is closer than you’d think. Alabama grabs 41.3 boards per game (#8), but Mississippi State isn’t far behind at 39.4 (#32). If the Bulldogs can limit second-chance opportunities and force Alabama into half-court sets, they might be able to slow this game down enough to stay within striking distance. But that’s a big if against a team that’s won five straight and is playing with supreme confidence.
The injury situation matters here: if Jayden Epps can’t go, Mississippi State loses a 15.7 PPG scorer and one of their better playmakers. That would leave Josh Hubbard to carry the entire offensive load, and asking one guy to keep pace with Philon, Holloway, and the rest of Alabama’s arsenal is unrealistic. Check the injury report before tip-off—Epps’ status could move this line a point or two.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m staying away from the side and targeting the UNDER 174.5. I know that feels counterintuitive with the nation’s top-scoring offense on the floor, but hear me out: Alabama’s last five games have gone 173, 232, 164, 167, and 188. The over has hit in their last five, but three of those games featured Arkansas (twice) and Auburn—elite offensive teams that can trade buckets. Mississippi State isn’t that.
The Bulldogs want to slow this game down, and if Epps is limited or out, they’re going to struggle to score efficiently against Alabama’s length. Mississippi State shoots just 44.9% from the floor (#201) and 32.2% from three (#280). They’re not built to run with Alabama, and if the Tide get up 15-20 in the second half, they’ll take their foot off the gas and milk clock. That’s when unders cash.
The head-to-head history supports this: these teams have gone over in six of nine meetings, but the last meeting in Starkville landed at 179 total points—right around this number. I’m projecting something in the 92-78 range, which gets you to 170. Give me the UNDER 174.5 and trust that Mississippi State’s offensive limitations keep this game from turning into a complete track meet.
