Cognizant Classic – PGA Tour
Date: February 26, 2026
Course: PGA National (Champion Course) – Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Course Breakdown: PGA National (Champion)
This isn’t a bomb-and-gouge track. PGA National is a second-shot golf course where precision and patience matter more than pure power. Water is in play on 15+ holes, and the infamous Bear Trap (Holes 15-17) routinely flips leaderboards late Sunday.
Key metrics that consistently matter here:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Ball striking in wind
- Par-3 scoring (four difficult par 3s)
- Bogey avoidance
- Scrambling under pressure
This is not typically a -25 birdie fest. Winning scores usually fall in the -8 to -14 range depending on wind. When the breeze kicks up, this becomes a grind.
Outright Picks
Shane Lowry (+1600)
This is a PGA National profile if I’ve ever seen one. Lowry thrives in wind, hits controlled irons, and plays difficult scoring environments better than most in this field. He doesn’t need to overpower this course — he needs to survive it. If conditions get firm and breezy, his stock rises fast.
Nicolai Højgaard (+2200)
High-end ball striking, elite iron ceiling, and enough length to attack the few scorable holes. He’s aggressive, which can be dangerous here, but if he manages the Bear Trap properly, his upside is as high as anyone outside the very top of the board.
Daniel Berger (+3000)
Florida guy. Controlled ball flight. Excellent iron player when sharp. If Berger’s approach game is dialed in, this is the kind of venue where he can methodically climb the board while others implode around him.
Aaron Rai (+3500)
This course rewards fairways and disciplined approach play. Rai fits that mold perfectly. Not flashy, but steady — and steady wins here more often than not.
Top 5 Targets
Keith Mitchell (+500)
Mitchell’s upside is undeniable, and he’s shown the ability to win on this course before. If he gets hot with the irons early, he can absolutely contend deep into Sunday.
Michael Thorbjornsen (+400)
Young, fearless, and capable of piling up birdies. I prefer him in placement markets rather than outright given volatility, but the ceiling is real.
Top 20 Targets
Will Zalatoris (+130)
If his putter behaves even marginally, the ball-striking alone should carry him safely inside the Top 20. Elite iron play travels anywhere.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+150)
Short-game excellence + comfort in tougher scoring conditions. This is a grinder’s track, and he fits it well.
Chris Kirk (+180)
Experience, patience, and a controlled tempo that suits PGA National. Solid Top 20 value in a field where volatility is high.
Matchup Plays
Shane Lowry over Ryan Gerard
Lowry’s experience in wind and difficult setups gives him the edge. Gerard has upside, but over four rounds on this layout, I trust Lowry’s discipline more.
Daniel Berger over Brooks Koepka
Koepka brings power, but this isn’t a power layout. Berger’s controlled approach game and Florida familiarity make him the more reliable 72-hole play here.
Aaron Rai over Keith Mitchell
Mitchell has higher volatility. Rai is the steadier ball striker and less likely to implode in the Bear Trap stretch.
Final Thoughts
PGA National rewards maturity and iron control. This isn’t a track where you can fake it for four days. Avoid the big numbers, manage the wind, survive the Bear Trap — that’s the formula.
I’m building a balanced card around disciplined ball strikers with strong approach numbers and wind pedigree. Lowry headlines the outright board, while Rai and Berger offer strong value in both win and placement markets.
Projected Winning Score: -11
Predicted Winner: Shane Lowry
