Sacramento finally snapped their losing streak only to get absolutely smoked the next night, and Bryan Bash is happily laying the 7 points with a rested Dallas squad ready to feast on a gassed roster.
The Setup: Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are laying 7 points at home against a Kings team that just snapped a franchise-record 16-game losing streak, only to get absolutely boat-raced by Houston the very next game. Dallas is catching Sacramento on the second night of a back-to-back after that 128-97 beatdown, and the projection here sits at Mavericks by 5.9 points. That creates a 1.1-point edge toward Sacramento +7, but here’s where the possessions math and efficiency gaps tell you everything you need to know about this matchup. The Kings are missing Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and De’Andre Hunter for the season, with Keegan Murray questionable after re-injuring the same ankle that cost him 20 games earlier this year. Dallas is without Cooper Flagg for a fifth straight game and will likely be without P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, but the net rating gap of +7.7 per 100 possessions in Dallas’s favor is too wide to ignore here. This line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math against Sacramento’s depleted roster and back-to-back fatigue.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 26, 2026, 8:30 ET
Location: American Airlines Center
TV: Home: KFAA-TV, Mavs.com | Away: NBC Sports CA, NBA League Pass
Current Spread: Dallas Mavericks -7.0 (-110)
Total: 233.5 (Over/Under -110)
Moneyline: Mavericks -278 | Kings +217
Why This Line Exists
The market set Dallas at -7 because the surface-level talent gap isn’t enormous with Cooper Flagg sidelined, and Sacramento just showed signs of life breaking that losing streak against Memphis. But when you dig into the season-long efficiency numbers, the foundation for a larger margin appears immediately. Dallas posts a 110.6 offensive rating and 113.6 defensive rating for a net rating of -3.0, while Sacramento limps in at 109.4 offensive rating and 120.1 defensive rating for a brutal -10.7 net rating. That +7.7 net rating edge for Dallas sets the baseline here.
The pace blend projects 101.4 possessions, which sits right between Sacramento’s 100.2 and Dallas’s 102.6. That’s enough possessions to let efficiency gaps materialize into real scoring separation. My model projects this at 116.9 for Dallas and 113.0 for Sacramento, landing on that 5.9-point margin with home court baked in. The market is giving you an extra 1.1 points of cushion at Mavericks -7, but the real story is what happens when you match Sacramento’s league-worst defense against a Dallas offense that shoots 56.8% true shooting and converts at a higher rate across the board.
Sacramento’s 120.1 defensive rating is the worst in the league, and they just surrendered 128 points to Houston on Wednesday night. Russell Westbrook scored 17 in the first quarter, then the entire team collapsed as Houston outscored them 44-28 in the second. That’s what happens when you’re on a back-to-back with zero rim protection after losing Sabonis for the season. The Kings are now relying on rookie Maxime Raynaud at center with Dylan Cardwell also out. This is exactly the spot where Sacramento burns you if you’re chasing the feel-good narrative of that Memphis win.
Sacramento Kings Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Sacramento’s season is cooked at 13-47, and they’re 4-27 on the road with a minus-11.1 point differential. DeMar DeRozan leads what’s left of this roster at 18.6 points per game on 49.3% shooting, while Russell Westbrook provides 15.3 points and 6.3 assists but turns it over 3.4 times per game. Keegan Murray is questionable after exiting Wednesday’s game in the first quarter with that left ankle injury, the same one that already cost him 20 games this season. If he sits, Sacramento loses another rotation piece and more defensive versatility.
The Kings’ offense generates 109.4 points per 100 possessions with a respectable 55.6% true shooting, but their defensive rating of 120.1 is a catastrophe. They allow 120.1 points per 100 possessions, can’t protect the rim without Sabonis, and don’t have the perimeter discipline to contain drives. Wednesday night in Houston exposed all of it—after Westbrook’s hot first quarter, the Rockets shot 8-for-12 from three in the second and built a 27-point halftime lead. Sacramento’s clutch record sits at 8-16 with a 38.1% field goal percentage in tight games, and their 33.3% clutch win rate tells you they don’t have the composure to steal close games on the road.
The offensive rebounding rate of 24.9% gives them some second-chance opportunities, but that advantage shrinks when you’re gassed on the second night of a back-to-back. The turnover rate of 12.8% is solid, but it doesn’t matter when you can’t get stops on the other end.
Dallas Mavericks Breakdown: The Other Side
Dallas sits at 21-36 but is 14-16 at home, and they just put up a season-high 76 first-half points in Brooklyn on Tuesday despite both teams dealing with travel chaos from a blizzard. Naji Marshall led the way with 21 points, Marvin Bagley added 22, and the Mavericks shot 58.5% from the field without Flagg. That’s the offensive ceiling this team can reach when the shots fall, and they’re facing a Sacramento defense that has no answer for penetration or spot-up shooting.
The Mavericks generate 110.6 points per 100 possessions with a 56.8% true shooting percentage and 53.3% effective field goal percentage. Max Christie has been a revelation at 13.3 points per game on 42.3% from three, and Brandon Williams chips in 12.8 points and 3.9 assists running the offense. P.J. Washington is likely out with a left ankle sprain, and Daniel Gafford is doubtful with a right ankle issue, but Dallas has shown they can score in bunches even with rotation shuffling. Marvin Bagley stepped up in Brooklyn and will likely start again at center if Gafford sits.
Defensively, Dallas posts a 113.6 rating, which isn’t elite but is miles better than Sacramento’s disaster. The Mavericks hold a slight rebounding edge at 44.7 boards per game compared to Sacramento’s 41.4, and their 5.4 blocks per game provide more rim deterrence than the Kings can muster. The clutch win rate of 40.5% isn’t spectacular, but it’s 7.2 percentage points better than Sacramento’s, and the Mavericks shoot 41.1% in clutch situations compared to the Kings’ 38.1%.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the efficiency gaps and how they scale over 101.4 possessions. When Dallas’s offense faces Sacramento’s defense, you’re looking at a 110.6 offensive rating attacking a 120.1 defensive rating. That’s a minus-9.5 mismatch in Sacramento’s favor on paper, but it actually means Dallas should score efficiently against this porous defense. Flip it around: Sacramento’s 109.4 offensive rating against Dallas’s 113.6 defensive rating creates a minus-4.2 gap, meaning the Kings will struggle to generate clean looks.
The possessions math tells a different story than the spread suggests. Over 101 possessions, that +7.7 net rating gap translates to roughly 7.8 points of separation before you account for home court. Add the standard 2-point home advantage, and you’re looking at a 9- to 10-point Dallas win if both teams play to their season averages. The market’s giving you Mavericks -7, which means you’re getting value if you believe the efficiency holds.
The shooting quality edge of +1.4 percentage points in effective field goal percentage for Dallas compounds over 70-plus field goal attempts. Sacramento’s offensive rebounding rate sits 2.2 percentage points higher, but that edge evaporates when you’re playing on tired legs and can’t finish second-chance opportunities. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup—Dallas has the shooting, the home court, and the rest advantage against a Kings team that got demolished less than 24 hours ago.
If Keegan Murray sits, Sacramento loses another defender who can switch and contest shots. If P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford both sit for Dallas, the Mavericks still have enough offensive firepower with Marshall, Christie, and Bagley to exploit Sacramento’s defensive breakdowns. The pace blend keeps this game in the mid-230s for total scoring, but the margin should tilt heavily toward Dallas as fatigue sets in for Sacramento in the second half.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Mavericks -7 for 2 units. The efficiency gap is too wide to ignore here, and Sacramento’s back-to-back situation after getting blown out by 31 in Houston sets up a letdown spot. My model projects Dallas by 5.9, which gives Sacramento a 1.1-point edge on paper, but the underlying metrics scream Dallas coverage. The net rating gap of +7.7 per 100 possessions, the defensive mismatch, and the home-court advantage all point to a double-digit Dallas win.
The risk is obvious: if Dallas goes cold from three and Sacramento’s offensive rebounding creates extra possessions, this could stay within a touchdown. But I’ve seen this movie before—a lottery team on a back-to-back road trip with key injuries facing a home team that just found its rhythm offensively. The market’s disrespecting Dallas here by only laying 7 when the efficiency math suggests a larger margin. this number points to Dallas coverage, and I’m taking the points all day long on the home side.
BASH’S BEST BET: Dallas Mavericks -7.0 for 2 units.
