RBD’s data-driven betting breakdown using trends, team stats, and situational handicapping for Celtics vs Grizzlies.
I have some pretty good numbers on the Celtics/Grizzlies game tonight.
My last pick, on March 16th, also used the Celtics.
I’m a ‘capper who likes to stick with what works and since Boston came through for me on my last bet I’m riding with them again tonight.
The play was a T1 Over using Phoenix and Boston. I bought it at 213′. It landed on 232.
Tonight’s game qualifies as a T1 Over.
The current record on these is 46-26, 64%.
It also qualifies for the main subcategory that I handicap. The record for this is 31-16, 66%.
Those are league wide stats for all NBA teams.
When I get into the team specific numbers I like the bet even more.
I knew the Celtics number when they qualified for T1 Over because I just tracked it for my last play.
They were 4-1 going into the game against the Suns. They’re 5-1 now, 83%.
I didn’t expect to get similar numbers for Memphis, as 83% is tough to match.
And I was correct.
The Grizzlies are 4-1 when they qualify for a T1 Over. It’s not 83%, but 4-1, 80% is close enough for me.
Combined in the T1 spot I get 9-2 for these two teams, 82%.
So I have the T1 Over spot, the subcategory, and BOTH team specific stats ALL working in my favor on this one.
And one more factor I like in tonight’s game.
Memphis is in Game one of B2B’s.
They’re home tonight but on the Rd tomorrow.
When game two of B2B’s is a Rd game the Grizzlies are 4-2, 67%, to the Over in Game one.
The game opened at 229′ and the board is currently split between 229′ and 230.
I’m grabbing this one right now as it looks to be a spot that’s going to keep rising throughout the day.
For recent play, using tonight’s number, 229′, Boston would be 2-3 Ov/Un.
Memphis would be a perfect 5-0.
The Grizzlies are the walking wounded, depending on backups to cover for missing starters. This means I’m going to have to depend on Boston to get most of the points tonight, which means I’m going to need them to be hitting their three-pointers.
Overall, Boston is second in the league (GS is first) on three-point attempts at 42%.
In Rd games the Celtics lead the league at 43%.
Side note for anyone looking at taking a side in this game – in Game one of B2B’s Memphis is just 3-8 ATS.
My play:
Bos/Mem Ov 229′
Recap
1-0
Record: 28-18
