Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
9:30 PM ET, American Airlines Center
Oklahoma City is a 6.5-point road favorite in Dallas with the total sitting at 229.5, and my play is Under 229.5.
The Thunder are 4-0, and they’ve gotten there while their injury report has grown longer by the night. That tells you everything about who they are. Oklahoma City doesn’t win with depth or flash. It wins by turning every game into a grind, and I expect the same thing in Dallas.
A Champion Held Together With Tape
Sunday’s win over the Clippers came at a brutal price. Jalen Williams left on a stretcher with a fractured leg and dislocated ankle, and Cason Wallace tore the labrum in his left shoulder. The AP reported both injuries require surgery that could end their seasons. Then Alex Caruso sprained his ankle Monday against Phoenix. Add Chet Holmgren (patellar tendinitis) and the Thunder are without four of their best defenders.
So how did they beat the Suns by 11? Ajay Mitchell scored a career-high 30, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 26, and Isaiah Hartenstein grabbed 13 boards. Mitchell is now questionable with a sprained right ankle, which would put even more on the two-time reigning MVP.
The Defense Doesn’t Take Nights Off
Even with the injuries, Oklahoma City gives up just 0.974 points per possession, second in the league per TeamRankings. The Thunder also rank third in forcing turnovers. Only one of their four games has cleared this total, and the 96-84 win over Denver looked like a game from 1999.
That defense now meets a Dallas team that coughs it up on 17.7% of its trips, 28th in the league. Turnovers kill possessions before a shot ever goes up, and Dallas hasn’t shown it can stop giving them away.
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Flagg Is Must-See TV
Dallas has something worth watching again. Cooper Flagg, last season’s Rookie of the Year, was spectacular Monday in Miami with 29 points and 11 assists, and his block on an Andrew Wiggins three in the final minute saved the win. Flagg missed the Spurs game last week with a shoulder injury but isn’t on Wednesday’s injury report.
Kyrie Irving, back after a 19-month layoff following his ACL tear, is questionable with left knee injury management. Naji Marshall (illness) and Caleb Martin (thumb) are also questionable, and Dereck Lively II is out after foot surgery. First-year coach Dusty May, fresh off a national title at Michigan, is still sorting out a thin rotation.
No Free Points Either
Neither of these teams lives at the line. Dallas ranks 29th in free throw rate and Oklahoma City sits 28th, per TeamRankings. That cuts out a big source of easy points, and it keeps the clock moving. The Thunder’s pace ranks in the bottom third of the league, too.
What Could Go Wrong
The Thunder’s defensive numbers were built mostly with Holmgren, Williams, Wallace and Caruso on the floor. Phoenix put up 114 on this short-handed group, and a defense this thin could crack. If Irving plays and he and Flagg get hot together, Dallas has the shot-makers to push this into the 230s on its own. A blowout could also bring garbage-time scoring. I still trust the Thunder to drag this game into the mud.
Projected score: Thunder 112, Mavericks 105
The Pick: Under 229.5 (-110)
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