RBD breaks down his betting picks for Detroit vs Philadelphia, attacking both the side and total using his proven WF1 and T1 models.
Detroit at Philadelphia
Side and Total Picks and Analysis
I don’t like playing the side and total in the same game because if my numbers are off I could go 0-2.
And I especially don’t like it tonight because I’ve dropped three in a row and I need a win.
But, as always, I go with what my numbers tell me to do.
Pick on the Side
Let’s start with the pick on the side.
I’m on Philadelphia.
Stats in my favor:
WF1 says Philly should be the Favorite tonight.
WF1 has a record of 26-18 on Hm Favs.
That gives me a 59% edge.
Philly has been in WF1 as the team that should have been the Fav three times this season.
They’re a perfect 3-0 ATS.
Stat’s not in my favor:
These teams have met three times this season. Detroit won and covered all three.
But, and it’s a big butt (I’m writing this article by speaking into the mic on my phone and when I said “big butt” it put the extra t on what was supposed to be “but.” I think it’s funny that the software program automatically assumed I was talking about someone’s ass, sorry I left it in instead of editing it) – Joel Embiid was out for all three games. He’s in tonight.
I rarely let the exclusion of one player push me off a bet because the books build that factor into their numbers, but Joel Embiid is one of the exceptions, I won’t bet on the Sixers if he’s out.
Philly has a chance to get a little revenge and avoid the season sweep tonight, and though I always say ” revenge is not something you should factor into your handicapping” I like using it anyway.
I’ll take the Sixers as Hm Dogs.
Pick on the Total
Let’s move on to my pick on the total.
T1 says this game goes Over.
T1 has a record of 54-39.
That’s a 58% edge in my favor.
Philly has been in the T1 Over spot seven times this season and has a record of 3-3-1.
Surprisingly, Detroit has not qualified at all.
In the subcategory I track for totals, this game qualifies for a spot with a record of 55-24.
That’s a 69% edge in my favor.
T1 Overs have been, as expected, a victim of Reversion Towards the Mean as of late.
It peaked at 46-24 back in March.
That’s 70 games at 65%.
Recent play has brought it down to the 54-39 noted above. But it’s hit three of its last four and I’ll ride with it tonight.
The total on tonight’s game opened at 225′ and has moved up to 226′.
In their three previous meetings this season they combined for 219, twice. But the third and most recent game, last month, saw them combine for 240.
Philadelphia Game Two Stats
The Sixers are in Game Two of B2B’s tonight.
In Game Two’s Philly is:
11-3 SU
12-2 ATS
8-6 Ov/Un
More fuel to fire my desire for the side and total plays tonight!
My Plays
Phil + 3′
Det/Phil Ov 226′
Recap
Recap: 0-2
Record: 29-23
Review: Lost both games on the “IF” bet in my last article. Lost the first game by the hook when the Nets dribbled out the clock on the final possession instead of taking a meaningless shot or getting fouled for a couple of free throws. The GS game wasn’t even close.
I’m limping into the postseason but still have four units to the plus side after juice.
