Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets
Monday, October 26, 2026
8:30 PM ET, Toyota Center
The Rockets are 5.5-point favorites over the Hawks with a total of 229.5, and my play is Over 229.5 (-110).
The Hawks missed 36 three-pointers on Saturday night and still scored 114 points. Let that sink in for a second, because that’s the whole case. Two days later, the same two teams meet again, this time in Houston, and I don’t think Atlanta shoots that badly twice in a row.
Saturday was the floor for Atlanta. The Hawks went 13-of-49 from deep in a 121-114 loss in their home opener. They fell behind by 20 and still clawed back within five in the final minute, mostly by pounding the paint and crashing the offensive glass. That’s a team that got plenty of shots and just didn’t make them from outside.
The night before, the same group hung 128 on Charlotte in a 47-point win, the largest in franchise history. Jalen Johnson is averaging about 22 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. He tied his career high with 16 assists in the loss. Quin Snyder liked the effort more than the result. “The biggest takeaway is that we kept playing,” he said.
Houston brings back its point guard. The Rockets are 3-0 for the first time since 2017-18, and they did it Saturday without Fred VanVleet, who sat out the second night of a back-to-back. VanVleet isn’t on Monday’s injury report. He had 11 assists in the opener against Dallas. Reed Sheppard filled in Saturday and made five threes, so the guard depth is real. Through the first week, Houston and Atlanta have the third- and fourth-best offenses in the league by points per 100 possessions. Both teams also had Sunday off, so nobody should show up with dead legs.
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Both teams get second chances. The Rockets led the NBA in offensive rebounds last season, and they grabbed 13 more Saturday for 22 second-chance points. Atlanta knows the defensive glass is a problem. “We know how important the defensive boards are for us to get out and go,” Snyder said. So far the Hawks rank below league average at finishing defensive possessions with a rebound. Extra possessions on both ends mean more points. Houston’s rotation is also a little short tonight, with Steven Adams out (calf) and Marcus Smart questionable (forearm). Jock Landale is cleared for Atlanta despite a broken nose. Mouhamed Gueye (foot) and Henri Veesaar (ACL) remain out.
The numbers back it up. Three of the five games these teams have played this season would have cleared 229.5, and Saturday’s game reached 235 even with Atlanta’s ice-cold night from deep.
Where this goes sideways. Houston doesn’t run. The Rockets play a little slower than league average, and their size and length can turn a game into a half-court grind. The second game of a home-and-home also comes after a fresh round of film study, so both defenses should be sharper. If Atlanta shoots like Saturday again, the Over needs Houston to do most of the scoring. I’d play this up to 231.5, but not past it.
Projected score: Rockets 119, Hawks 114. Same winner as Saturday, but this time the Hawks’ threes fall and the total sails over.
The Pick: Over 229.5 (-110)
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