RBD breaks down UFL betting trends and delivers a Week 3 pick, targeting a matchup between an undefeated team and a winless squad.
UFL Week Two Recap, Week Three Free Pick
Orlando Storm at Louisville Kings
Friday April 10, 8:00 p.m. on FOX.
Before I get to today’s pick, I’m sure many of you are wondering how the new rule changes that are supposed to increase scoring are doing.
(Yes, “many of you” is sarcasm.)
After two weeks of play, eight games in the books, the Ov/Un is 3-5. That’s just slightly better than last year’s numbers after two weeks, when the Under had a 2-6 edge.
Favs have the edge over Dogs at 5-3.
The largest positive point differential belongs to Dallas at +35.
The largest negative point differential belongs to Columbus at -25.
Through two weeks of play there are two undefeated teams and two winless teams.
In tonight’s game between the Storm and the Kings I’ll be looking for a little continuity, using one of the undefeated teams against one of the winless teams.
Orlando sits atop the standings at 2-0.
Louisville are cellar dwellers at 0-2.
The Storm have the second highest point differential in the league at +17, Louisville is third worst at -12, for a differential of 29 between the two teams.
Because the Storm’s two victories came at Hm and they’re on the Rd tonight we get away with a cheap spread of just -3′. But let’s face it – we’re talking about the UFL here, the stands are empty and there’ll be no home field advantage for Louisville tonight.
Both of Orlando’s wins came by more than tonight’s number. In week one, they won by seven points. In week two, they won by 10.
That Week Two game was against the same team they face tonight, the Kings.
Yes, it’s only the third week of the season and for some weird reason the UFL already has two teams playing each other in a rematch.
QB Comparison
Last week Louisville used two quarterbacks, Rogers and Bean, who connected on just 17 of 35 passes, for 190 yards, 0 TD’s, one INT.
Orlando starter Jack Plummer completed 18 of 23, good for 182 yards and two TD’s.
But it’s the run game that gives me the standout stat that has me backing Orlando and looking for similar results to week two.
In the first two weeks of the season Louisville is averaging just 36 rushing yards per game.
That’s not a typo. 36 yards per game.
A one dimensional offense is a defensive coordinator’s dream. It’s easy to game plan for – stop the pass and you’re on an easy path to victory.
My play:
Orlando -3′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-2
Review:
The Birmingham Stallions dynasty (if anything could be considered a dynasty in the UFL) appears to be over.
They barely survived in Week One with a two-point victory over 1-1 Louisville, and lost in Week Two to the lowly Houston Gamblers.
Here’s the difference between a regular sports fan and a sports betting fan.
The Birmingham Stallions are 7 point favorites over the Houston Gamblers.
Birmingham is winning by 10 points in the fourth quarter and both types of fans are cheering them on.
But Birmingham blows the lead.
They’re only up by two points, with two seconds left on the game clock, and the Gamblers are about to attempt a field goal.
The regular sports fan roots for the kicker to miss.
The sports betting fan who bet the Stallions -7 (like me) changes his allegiance and roots for the kicker to split the uprights.
You want to screw me and make me lose my bet? Well, screw YOU, I hope you lose SU.
Houston made the kick.
Birmingham lost.
And I got a little cheap satisfaction for my loss.
