Bryan Bash examines a regular-season finale with both rosters gutted for rest, finding value in a total that may not account for the depth-chart chaos on both sides.
The Setup: Pelicans at Timberwolves
Minnesota sits as a 6-point home favorite against New Orleans on Sunday night, with the total posted at 235.5. Both teams are locked into their playoff positioning—the Timberwolves as the West’s sixth seed, the Pelicans long eliminated—and the injury reports tell you everything you need to know about motivation here. Minnesota is resting nine rotation players, including Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid. New Orleans counters with eight guys out, headlined by Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, and Saddiq Bey.
This is a deep-bench showcase with playoff implications nowhere in sight. The projection lands at 232.5 points, creating a three-point cushion against the posted total. That gap matters when you’re dealing with lineups this compromised and game flow this unpredictable.
Game Info & Betting Lines
When: Sunday, April 12, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Target Center
Watch: FanDuel SN North (home), GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBA League Pass (away)
Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -6.0 (-110)
Total: 235.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves -263 / Pelicans +208
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing Minnesota’s home edge and superior season-long profile—the Timberwolves carry a +3.1 net rating compared to New Orleans’ -4.4, a 7.5-point per-100-possession gap that forms the foundation of this spread. Minnesota shot 59.2% true shooting on the year against the Pelicans’ 56.8%, and the defensive gap tilts heavily toward the Wolves at 112.4 versus 117.6. Those efficiency numbers typically justify a mid-single-digit spread.
But the total at 235.5 assumes something close to normal offensive output, and there’s nothing normal about these rotations tonight. Both teams play at virtually identical pace—101.4 for Minnesota, 101.3 for New Orleans—so the possession count should land right around the blend at 101.4. That’s not the issue. The issue is shot quality when you’re running out third-stringers and two-way guys who haven’t seen consistent minutes all season.
The spread sits basically priced correctly at -6.0 against my model’s 5.8-point projection. No edge there. But that total deserves scrutiny.
Pelicans Breakdown
New Orleans limped to the finish line at 26-55, getting blown out by Boston on Friday in a game where the Celtics tied the NBA record with 29 three-pointers. The Pelicans allowed 144 points and trailed by as many as 41. That’s the kind of defensive collapse you see when a team has checked out for the summer.
Tonight’s roster features none of the primary offensive engines. Williamson averaged 21.0 points on 60.0% shooting but sits with a knee issue. Murphy led the team at 21.5 points per game with 37.9% three-point accuracy—he’s out for a fourth straight game with an injury. Murray, the veteran floor general who posted 16.7 points and 6.4 assists in his 14 appearances, is done for the year with a bruised hand. Bey, who had a career-best 17.7 points per game, is resting.
What’s left? Jeremiah Fears and Jordan Poole will handle backcourt duties. Derik Queen gets extended run in the frontcourt with Kevon Looney likely starting. This is a developmental lineup playing out the string with zero competitive stakes.
Timberwolves Breakdown
Minnesota wrapped up a 48-33 campaign and snapped Houston’s eight-game winning streak on Friday behind 22 points from Edwards and 23 from Terrence Shannon Jr. off the bench. Edwards hit a crucial late three to seal a 136-132 road victory, but he won’t suit up tonight for maintenance on a knee issue that’s bothered him for weeks. He averaged a career-best 28.8 points per game this season.
Randle, who contributed 21.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, is resting. Gobert, the defensive anchor at 10.9 points and 11.5 rebounds with 1.6 blocks, sits out. Reid, the versatile big who averaged 13.6 points and 6.2 boards, joins them on the sideline. Ayo Dosunmu, Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, and Nah’Shon Hyland round out the rest list.
The Wolves are trotting out bench depth and fringe rotation guys who will play hard but lack the offensive cohesion and shot-making consistency of the regulars. Shannon showed well on Friday, but expecting that kind of scoring punch from a patchwork lineup is asking a lot.
The Matchup
Both teams sit at nearly identical pace, so this game will feature around 101 possessions for each side. The question is what those possessions produce when neither team has its primary scorers or playmakers available. Minnesota’s offensive rating of 115.5 and New Orleans’ 113.2 reflect full-strength rosters operating with established roles and chemistry. Strip away the top six or seven guys from each side, and those numbers crater.
The shooting quality gap normally favors Minnesota by 3.1 percentage points in effective field goal percentage, but that edge relies on Edwards, Randle, and McDaniels creating clean looks. Without them, the Wolves are hunting offense through second and third options who don’t command the same defensive attention. New Orleans faces the same problem—Fears and Poole can score, but they’re not generating the same shot quality as Williamson attacking the rim or Murphy spacing the floor.
Defensively, Minnesota holds a clear edge at 112.4 versus 117.6, but again, that’s with Gobert protecting the paint and McDaniels switching on the perimeter. Tonight’s defensive unit won’t replicate that level of rim protection or versatility. The Pelicans allowed 144 to Boston on Friday with a similarly compromised lineup. Expecting either defense to tighten up in a meaningless game is wishful thinking, but the offensive firepower just isn’t there to exploit it.
The clutch numbers tell you something about these teams when healthy—Minnesota went 18-14 in close games with a 56.3% win rate, while New Orleans stumbled to 12-29 and a 29.3% clutch win rate. That 27-point gap in clutch performance matters in the playoffs, but it’s irrelevant tonight when neither team has its clutch performers available.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The total at 235.5 assumes offensive execution that these rosters can’t deliver. My model projects 232.5, creating a three-point edge on the under. That might not sound like much, but in a game where both teams are missing their top scorers and playmakers, every possession without a primary option matters. The pace blend sits at 101.4 possessions, so you’re banking on both sides averaging under 1.16 points per trip. That’s not a high bar when you’re running out developmental guys and deep-bench pieces.
The spread sits in line with the market at -6.0, so there’s no value chasing Minnesota’s superior depth. But the total offers a real edge when you account for the talent drain on both sides. Neither team can generate efficient offense without its regulars, and while the defenses won’t be elite, they don’t need to be—they just need to face compromised offensive attacks.
The Play: Under 235.5 (-110)
The risk here is garbage-time fouling or a surprise breakout performance from a fringe guy trying to make an impression heading into the offseason. But betting on offensive execution from these lineups is a tougher sell than trusting the talent gap to suppress scoring. Take the under and let the depth charts do the work.
