RBD breaks down the Renegades vs Aviators matchup with sharp betting insights, targeting both the spread and total in this Week 4 handicapping spot.

Dallas Renegades at Columbus Aviators
UFL Week 4 Picks, Side and Total

Here are the team-specific basics:
Dallas is 2-1 ATS.
Columbus is 1-2 ATS.
Dallas is 3-0 Ov/Un.
Columbus is 2-1 Ov/Un.

League-wide, Favs are at 6-6, no edge, but after going 4-0 last week the Over now has an edge at 7-5.
Including last night’s game, the edge on Overs is now 8-5, with five straight games surpassing the posted total.

Tonight we get another back-to-back rematch.
Last week, Dallas hosted Columbus and came away with a 28-23 victory. Tonight they travel to Columbus as -6 point Favs with the total set at 47.

Last week’s win kept the Renegades undefeated at 3-0, but they lost in the only area that counts with sports bettors as the Aviators covered the +7′ point spread.

The new-to-the-league Aviators fell to 0-3 on the season (deservedly so because they picked a stupid name.)

In tonight’s rematch we have a 3-0 team facing an 0-3 team.
Such a matchup has the average sports bettor looking at riding the undefeated team and going against the winless squad, even more so in this case because they get to take the Fav laying less than a TD.
But I’m going the other way.
I’m going to ride the home team with the fear inspiring name.

In the first meeting, Columbus put points on the board in all four quarters and I expect that at home they should be able to surpass the 23 they scored against Dallas on the Rd.

But let’s say they score 23, the same as last game.
To beat me on the spread Dallas would need to score 30, which would push the total Over.
So I’m playing for a split at worst case here.

Dallas has held opponents to an average of just 18 points per game, but they’ve had the luxury and advantage of playing all three of their games at home.

And it’s not asking too much of Columbus to get me to the 23 I’m looking for tonight as they’re averaging 22 points per game.

My thinking is that the combination of Dallas being on the Rd for the first time and Columbus desperate to get their first win of the season (and avoid being all but eliminated from a playoff spot) gives the statistical edge to 2-0 or 1-1 rather than 0-2.
I’m taking the Dog and the Over.

My plays:
Columbus +6
Dallas/Col Ov 47

Recap: 1-1
Record: 4-3

Review:
I dropped my first play of the week, missing by 1′ points. This put me at 3-3.

But I banked a winner when St Louis won SU as Dogs against Birmingham, putting me back on the plus side of the ledger for the season.
And I can’t ask for more than that.

I should have stuck with my position as noted in Week Two that the Houston Gamblers are the worst team in the league.
DC crushed them 45-7.

The Gamblers lost again last night but I laid off the game because as I always say I don’t like jumping on a play that I didn’t bet the week before, and it won.
Good move not fading Houston as they lost SU as expected but covered by the hook! (edited)