RBD breaks down Birmingham’s collapse and DC’s defensive edge in this Week 5 betting pick, leaning on line movement and handicapping instincts.
Birmingham Ponies at DC Defenders
UFL Pick Week 5
Friday night, 8 pm on FOX.
After four weeks of UFL play I’m relieved to say I’m still on the plus side of the ledger with a record of 5-4.
I’m happy with a winning record in any sport but especially so on one that I don’t have my usual handicapping tools available, the mathematical formulas I use to pick out Wrong Favorites and Over/Unders.
But I’m not dart throwing for my picks, I’m relying on my experience as a bookmaker and bettor – reading lines, learning tendencies of teams and coaches, and gut feel.
This week my gut says go with the DC Defenders and lay the points against Birmingham.
Let’s look at the basics.
Birmingham Trending the Wrong Way
Birmingham is just 1-3 SU.
In week one they barely squeaked by with a two point win over fellow cellar dwellers, the Louisville Kings, also in last place at 1-3 SU.
In week two they lost STRAIGHT UP to the WORST team in the league, the Houston Gamblers.
In week three they lost to the mediocre St Louis Battle Hawks (2-2) by four points.
And, continuing their downward slide, they lost in week four, getting shut out, 16-0 by the first place Orlando Storm.
That’s right, the offense couldn’t manage a single point.
They’re 1-3 SU.
They’re 0-4 ATS.
Not very Stallion-like numbers.
More like pink, plush My Little Pony’s.
True, Orlando does have the number one defense in the league, surrendering just 52 PPG.
But still, not a single point?
DC Defense and Market Edge
And it’s not going to get better for Birmingham this week as they face the number two defense in the league.
DC is giving up just 71 PPG on D.
AND they have the best points scored/surrendered differential in the league at +56.
That’s 21 points higher than first place Orlando, while Birmingham has the second worst differential at -20.
That’s a 76 point differential between the two teams, which is why I’m not concerned about laying almost a TD in this one.
The line opened at DC -6 and is rising, as it should.
That’s how far Birmingham has fallen, they’re Hm Dogs of almost a TD!
You can still get -6 with a little added juice at one of our sponsors but I’m buying it at -6′ because I’m not worried about the extra hook.
And I’m buying it this morning because I see a couple shops have already moved to -7.
Coaching Loss and QB Concerns
Over the last two weeks I’ve had a bit of deja vu watching and reading about this Birmingham team.
It reminds me of the Kansas City Chiefs last season.
Every week, bettors thought that this would be the week the Chiefs would return to form and start winning.
And every week they let bettors down, continuing to lose.
Same thing with this Birmingham team.
People keep expecting the old Stallions team to show up, but instead they get the Ponies.
This week it seems the bookmakers finally caught on to the fact that the Birmingham team who won a couple championships is gone.
Just like their coach, who won three championships with them, Skip Holtz, who stepped down before the start of the season.
Holtz was more than just their head coach, he was also their offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
And that’s where his loss is clearly felt – Birmingham sits at the bottom of the league for points scored, putting up just 65 total for an average of 16 per game.
My only concern is DC’s Strength of Schedule.
The wins have come against teams with a combined record of 2-6.
But, you can only play the teams that are on your schedule.
Also of note (but not of concern to me) is the fact that after his tossing multiple interception last week Birmingham traded quarterback Matt Corral, swapping with Orlando for their backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
News out of camp isn’t abundant in this league but all signs point to Robinson getting the start, which means I’m betting against a quarterback who’s had less than a week’s worth of practice time to get down his timing with his wide receivers.
In other words, they’ll be running the ball a lot, and Birmingham is ranked seventh for rushing yards per games.
In an eight-game league.
Pick
My play:
DC -6′
Recap
Recap: 1-1
Record: 5-4
Review: I took Columbus +6 and nailed my analysis as they won SU against a Dallas squad who benefited from playing all their games at home until last week.
Fell short on the total going Over, due to a dominating Columbus running game that controlled the game clock, including an 18 play drive that took up 10 minutes, stretching from the end of the third quarter to just 6 minutes left in the 4th.
Had a chance for the Over when Dallas drove into the red zone on their final possession but had a pass picked off at the goal line.
Rat bastards.
