RBD breaks down a Sunday morning (in Vegas) WNBA betting spot, leaning on his WF2 handicapping model and early-season market reads.
Las Vegas Aces at Atlanta Dream
WNBA Pick and Analysis
An early 10:30 a.m. PST start.
WNBA teams are not used to playing morning games. I think there’s an edge on playing Sunday morning totals but I don’t remember what it is. When I’m done with this writeup I’ll go through my charts to check last year’s stats and post a play on the total in the forum if I find something interesting. For now I don’t need them though because I’m playing a side in this one.
After one week of play I’m sitting at 3-2.
My losses were by the hook and by 1′.
Both of them were games I picked by looking at the line and making a judgment call. Because it’s early in the season I haven’t got much data accumulated for my handicapping models, but after losing two games not using them I went to my systems for the next three and went 3-0.
And that’s what I’m doing again today.
My handicapping model WF2 says the Dream should be the Favorite at Hm today facing the Aces.
WF2 has a record of 3-3 this season, no edge overall but broken down into subcategories I have two edges.
WF2 at Hm is 0-3, a solid Fade.
WF2 on the Rd is 3-0, solid play ON.
I used this model on my last play, on 5/12, Fading LA, and banked a winner with Indiana.
And I’m going to stick with what works until it doesn’t anymore.
Let’s check the standard stuff.
Las Vegas lost their home opener in shocking fashion, 99-66. Even worse, they were Double Digit Favorites.
Inexplicable and unexplainable.
But, they’ve rounded back into Championship form (they swept Phoenix in the finals last season) winning their next three games.
And all of them on the Rd, just like today.
Spread-wise they’re 2-2, but in three of those games they were Double Digit Favs.
We get them today at a great price of only -2′.
Atlanta is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS.
Both teams have their core players from last year back in the lineup this season, but Atlanta added Angel Reese.
Rest or Rust?
Atlanta hasn’t played since Wednesday, so they’re on three days rest.
Is that the advantage that some say it is?
They were 3-5 SU with three or more days of rest last season.
Tired legs?
Scheduling has not been kind to the Aces, this is their fourth game in 7 days, and fourth on the Rd. Last season they were 1-1 SU and ATS on Rd trips of four games or more.
They’re going to need some productivity from their bench today but it doesn’t hurt that the Aces have the Dream’s number, winning nine of the last 10 SU.
When to Buy Recommendation
Books are all over on this one.
I see some sites opened at Atlanta -1′, some opened it at LV -4′.
Right now the common number is LV -2′.
Some houses have extra juice on the Aces and one or two have moved to -3, so I’m buying this one now at two and a hook.
My play:
Las Vegas -2′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-2
Correction
In my last article I said that Indiana had a new head coach. Incorrect, bad information from AI. As I was watching the game I thought, “Wait a minute, she was with the team last year.”
My bad. I know better.
It used to be when you Googled something you’d get a couple different links to various websites for further info. Now, on top of the page, above the website links, there’s always a paragraph from AI.
That’s where I got the bad info on the head coach.
Last year there was an AI write-up that talked about the positive effect a player was going to have on that day’s game. Only problem is the player they were raving about had been on the IR list for weeks.
Never use AI for handicapping help. (edited)
