Quick Recap:
• Record: 3-7-2
• Units: -8.8
• Best Win: Under 7 (+3.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 7.5 (-2.5u)
Joe Jensen’s May 17 card finished -8.8 units on a 3-7-2 record, a day defined not by volume but by where the exposure landed. Jensen allocated 25.91 units of risk across twelve graded plays, with nine of those positions on totals. When seven under bets miss and only two cash, the math becomes unforgiving quickly. The issue was not the allocation strategy—it was the consistent failure of totals to stay below the number in environments that turned offensive.
Dodgers at Angels
Result: Lost | Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) | Risked: 2.30u | Net P/L: -2.30u
Final Score: Dodgers 10, Angels 1
This one was over by the fourth inning. Roki Sasaki dominated for Los Angeles, striking out eight over seven innings and allowing just one run, but the Dodgers offense exploded for five runs in the fourth and added three more in the ninth. Kyle Tucker drove in three and Hyeseong Kim scored twice as the Dodgers cruised to a 10-1 blowout. The under never had a chance once the Dodgers broke through—11 total runs rendered the 9.5 line irrelevant. After backing the Angels moneyline the day before in a 15-2 loss, this was another tough result in the Freeway Series.
Marlins at Rays
Result: Lost | Pick: Under 7.5 (-124) | Risked: 2.48u | Net P/L: -2.48u
Final Score: Rays 6, Marlins 3
Tampa Bay’s offense came alive with Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz both homering, and Taylor Walls added a three-RBI triple as the Rays posted six runs. The Marlins chipped in three of their own, pushing the total to nine—well over the 7.5 number. Drew Rasmussen gave up two runs over 5.1 innings, but it was the Rays’ power surge that sank the under. After cashing Over 7.5 the day before in a 10-5 game, the series flipped script and the under missed again.
Orioles at Nationals
Result: Push | Pick: Under 10 (-105) | Risked: 2.10u | Net P/L: 0.00u
Final Score: Orioles 7, Nationals 3
Gunnar Henderson went 4-for-5 with a homer and two RBI, and Coby Mayo added a two-run shot as Baltimore avoided the sweep with a 7-3 win. The total landed exactly on 10, resulting in a push and returning the 2.10 units risked. After cashing the Nationals moneyline the day before in a 13-3 rout, this was a neutral result that neither helped nor hurt the card.
Phillies at Pirates
Result: Won | Pick: Under 7 (-105) | Risked: 3.15u | Net P/L: +3.00u
Final Score: Phillies 6, Pirates 0
Zack Wheeler was brilliant, tossing seven shutout innings and allowing just four hits while striking out eight. The Phillies offense got just enough against Paul Skenes, with Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott both homering in a 6-0 shutout. The total stayed comfortably under 7, delivering a clean 3-unit win and the highest-confidence cash of the day. After winning Under 8 the day before in another 6-0 Phillies victory, this was the one series where the totals read held firm.
Reds at Guardians
Result: Lost | Pick: Under 8.5 (-114) | Risked: 2.28u | Net P/L: -2.28u
Final Score: Guardians 10, Reds 3
Cleveland hit six home runs—a season-high at home—and Kyle Manzardo went deep twice as the Guardians demolished the Reds 10-3. The total sailed to 13 runs, blowing past the 8.5 number by the seventh inning. After cashing the Guardians moneyline the day before, this was a case of Cleveland’s offense overwhelming the total in a warm-weather power display.
Yankees at Mets
Result: Lost | Pick: Under 8.5 (-122) | Risked: 2.44u | Net P/L: -2.44u
Final Score: Mets 7, Yankees 6 (10 innings)
This one went to extras after Tyrone Taylor’s three-run homer off David Bednar tied it in the ninth, and Carson Benge ended it with a walk-off in the 10th. The Yankees led 6-3 entering the ninth, but the Mets rallied late and the game finished 7-6 with 13 total runs. The under was dead once the Mets mounted their comeback. After losing Under 8.5 the day before in a 6-3 Mets win, the Subway Series proved costly on both totals.
Jays at Tigers
Result: Won | Pick: Toronto Blue Jays ML (-126) | Risked: 2.52u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Blue Jays 4, Tigers 1
Kevin Gausman was sharp, pitching six shutout innings and allowing just four hits without a walk. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homered and scored twice, and Daulton Varsho added a triple and a double as Toronto cruised 4-1. This was a clean moneyline win worth 2 units, and one of the few bright spots on the card. After cashing Under 8.5 the day before in a 2-1 game, the Blue Jays series delivered twice.
Cubs at Sox
Result: Lost | Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) | Risked: 2.10u | Net P/L: -2.10u
Final Score: White Sox 9, Cubs 8 (10 innings)
Edgar Quero’s two-run homer in the 10th gave the White Sox a 9-8 walk-off win in a game that saw 17 total runs. The Cubs led 8-6 entering the bottom of the 10th, but Quero’s blast off Ryan Rolison ended it and sent the total well over 8.5. After losing Under 8.5 the day before in an 8-3 game, the Crosstown Series was another double miss on totals.
Rangers at Astros
Result: Push | Pick: Under 8 (-105) | Risked: 2.10u | Net P/L: 0.00u
Final Score: Rangers 8, Astros 0
Nathan Eovaldi pitched seven strong innings, allowing five hits and striking out eight, while Jake Burger tied a career high with four RBI in Texas’s 8-0 shutout. The total landed exactly on 8, resulting in a push. After losing the Rangers moneyline the day before in a 4-1 loss, this was a neutral result that kept the card from sinking further.
Royals at Cardinals
Result: Won | Pick: Under 9 (-105) | Risked: 2.10u | Net P/L: +2.00u
Final Score: Royals 2, Cardinals 0
Stephen Kolek allowed just four hits over 6.1 innings, and Salvador Perez homered and drove in both Kansas City runs in a 2-0 shutout. The total stayed well under 9, delivering a clean 2-unit win and snapping the Royals’ six-game losing streak. After cashing Under 9 the day before in a 4-2 game, this was the one series where the under read was consistently correct.
Diamondbacks at Rockies
Result: Lost | Pick: Under 10.5 (-102) | Risked: 2.04u | Net P/L: -2.04u
Final Score: Diamondbacks 8, Rockies 6
Corbin Carroll homered twice and drove in three as Arizona built a 6-2 lead through five innings, but Colorado rallied with four runs in the eighth to make it 8-6. The 14 total runs cleared the 10.5 line comfortably. After losing Over 11 the day before in a 4-2 game, the Coors Field series was a split on totals but another miss on Sunday.
Padres at Mariners
Result: Lost | Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) | Risked: 2.20u | Net P/L: -2.20u
Final Score: Padres 8, Mariners 3
Gavin Sheets homered twice and drove in four runs as San Diego posted eight runs, including a five-run sixth inning that broke the game open. Lucas Giolito won his Padres debut, but the offense did the heavy lifting in an 8-3 final that sailed over 7.5. After losing Under 7.5 the day before in a 7-4 game, the Mariners series was another double miss on totals as Seattle’s pitching faltered late.
Missed Reads: Dodgers/Angels Under 9.5, Reds/Guardians Under 8.5, Padres/Mariners Under 7.5
Variance / Competitive Losses: Marlins/Rays Under 7.5, Yankees/Mets Under 8.5, Cubs/White Sox Under 8.5, Diamondbacks/Rockies Under 10.5
Clean Wins: Phillies/Pirates Under 7, Blue Jays ML, Royals/Cardinals Under 9
The -8.8 unit result came down to consistent exposure on totals in environments that turned offensive. Seven under bets lost, two pushed, and only two won—a 22% cash rate on totals. The Blue Jays moneyline and the two under wins in Philadelphia and Kansas City were the only graded plays that held, but they were not enough to offset the damage from the Dodgers, Guardians, Mets, White Sox, Rockies, and Mariners games. When higher-confidence positions like the Phillies under cash but the bulk of the card misses, the unit result reflects the allocation imbalance. This was a day where the totals read did not align with how the games played out, and the losses compounded quickly.
