RBD breaks down his Toronto vs. Phoenix betting prediction with T2 model notes, total-line movement, and one very annoying Aces memory.
On Sunday, in my last play, I had the Las Vegas Aces -2′.
In the fourth quarter they had a 17-point lead, against the Dallas Wings.
SEVENTEEN!!!
With only EIGHT minutes left in the game.
Yet somehow, with under a minute left to go, they were losing SU by one point.
They ended up winning.
By one point.
I EXPECT lousy play from the WNBA.
I’m AMUSED by the lousy play in the WNBA.
I LAUGH at the missed free throws, air ball layups, bad passes that end up in the laps of fans sitting in the front row, shot clock violation turnovers, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc.
Because I have no expectations of anything even closely resembling professional sports in the women’s basketball league.
But I wasn’t laughing on Sunday.
Losses are part of the game, you have to shrug them off and put them in the past where they belong.
But on Monday I was still griping to anyone unfortunate enough to be in hearing distance about the Aces’ Sunday collapse.
Writing is therapy for me sometimes, it helps me get things out of my system.
But it isn’t working today so let’s get on to tonight’s pick.
With about two weeks of play behind us, here’s what I have to work with, the records of my handicapping models.
WF1 is 1-1, Hm 0-1, Rd 1-0.
WF2 is 4-3, Hm 1-3, Rd 3-0.
T1 is 3-2, Ov 2-0, Un 1-2.
T2 is 8-4. All Unders.
Still not a lot of data accumulated yet, but I’ve got a few things to work with using those records.
There’s only one game on the WNBA Schedule today, so I wasn’t expecting anything to qualify.
But . . .
T2 says the Toronto Tempo and the Phoenix Mercury stay Under the posted total.
I not only have a game that qualifies, but it’s the one with the most data accumulated, a 12 game sample. And it’s hitting at 67%.
The visiting Tempo are 2-2 Ov/Un on the season.
No edge until you dig deeper and see that they’re 2-0 Ov on the Rd.
That doesn’t help my play on the Under today.
The Mercury are 3-1 Ov/Un.
And 2-0 Ov at Hm.
More reasons to not play the Under today.
Maybe the books have adjusted for this and put a higher total on today’s game?
Let’s apply today’s number to their schedules.
The line opened at 170 and is up to 171′ so at least it’s moving in the right direction for an Under.
The game would need to hit 172 for it to go Over.
Two of Toronto’s four games have gone Over 172.
BOTH were Rd games like today.
BOTH sailed Over by more than 20 points.
That’s pretty ugly for an Under bettor.
Two of Phoenix’s games had 172 points or higher scored. One landed on 172, and one stayed Under.
Every stat above points to an Over.
And one more thing not in my favor.
Both of last night’s games qualified as T2 Overs, pushing its record to 8-4, 67%.
But I didn’t play either one.
Which means I’m in the spot I hate – jumping on a play that I stayed off of the night before and it won.
Tonight’s number, 171′ is off.
Both teams score an average of 88 PPG.
Combined, that’s 176.
That’s slightly offset by the fact that their defenses average 167 PPG, but everything else, all the other stats, including recent play, scream “Over” tonight.
The Over looks too good to be true.
And not just handicapping, but life itself has taught me one lesson – when something looks too good to be true, it usually is.
A closer look at Toronto’s anomalies, the two games that saw an average of almost 200 points scored, shows they both came against the LA Sparks.
LA has the worst defense in the league, surrendering an embarrassing 98.3 PPG.
Yes, they give up almost 100 points per game.
That’s not surprising, the Sparks were also the worst defense in the League last year.
But even then they only gave up 88 PPG, about a dozen fewer PPG than this year.
Toronto’s not playing LA tonight.
To get a W here I’m going to need one of these teams (“one of them” meaning Toronto) to have a subpar quarter of around 12-14 points.
But hey, it’s the WNBA, where crappy play is the norm.
For example, the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday were up by SEVENTEEN points in the fourth quarter and . . .
Never mind.
My play:
Tor/Phx Un 171′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-3
Review: I don’t want to talk about it.
