RBD breaks down his Sparks vs. Mercury betting pick with Wrong Favorite model notes, rebounding angles, and another painful blown-lead rant.
LA Sparks at Phoenix Mercury
Pick and Analysis
Before I get to today’s pick, let’s have a moment of silence for our sports betting brethren who put their money on the Cavs on Tuesday night.
Cleveland had a 22 point lead with 7 minutes left in the game and lost SU!
Not only that, but they were getting +5 and failed to cover the spread, too.
And they also screwed Under bettors as the game went Over by one point in OT.
In my last WNBA article I lamented – okay, not lamented, I bitched about – how the Las Vegas Aces screwed me by blowing a 17-point lead with just 8 minutes left in the game.
I expect that kind of lousy play from the WNBA, but an NBA team???
And in a playoff game??!!
As Jed Clampett would say, “Pit-i-ful.”
My condolences, Cleveland backers.
But I digress.
Let’s get to today’s action.
Every time I watch the LA Sparks I think, “this team has a decent amount of talent, with Stephanie Plum and Dearica Hamby leading the way, so why do they stink?”
But stink they do, sitting at just 1-3, including two double-digit blowouts.
Their lone win came against the expansion Toronto Tempo, when they squeezed by at home in LA by just 4 points.
In their season opener, again at home in LA, they lost to the same Toronto team by 10 points.
Yes, we’re only a week or two into the season but LA is in last place, tied with Seattle and Connecticut.
Heck, both expansion teams are above them in the standings!
This is their first Rd game, so maybe getting away from the home crowd might help LA, but I hope not because I’m taking Phoenix.
So far, the Mercury are not much better than the Sparks, sitting at 2-3.
But at least they’ve won two games ATS, LA has yet to cover at 0-4.
Phoenix is 1-2 SU at Hm, including an eight-point loss to the expansion Tempo.
So why am I taking them?
Both my models for choosing WF’s (Wrong Favorites) say LA should be the Fav on the road tonight.
WF1 is 1-0 on Rd teams this season.
WF2 is 3-0 on Rd teams this season.
Wait a minute.
If I’ve got a combined 4-0 record on Rd teams, why am I Fading it tonight???
Two reasons.
One – because those records are league wide numbers, covering all teams.
If I look at team specific numbers, specifically LA, they’re 0-2 in my WF spots.
Both were Hm games, and they’re on the Rd tonight, but it seems my numbers are off on them, and I don’t think it makes a difference where tonight’s game is being played.
Two – Like I said, LA stinks.
They’re dead last in PPG, giving up 98.3.
That’s more than five points more than the next lousiest team.
They’ve got the second worst point differential, a double digit differential at -10.5.
And LA is dead last in the league at rebounding, a stat I expect to be the difference maker tonight.
Phoenix is off to a slow start but they’re 10 points per game better than LA on defense, and have a +2.6 differential, which is just about the same as tonight’s spread.
The line opened at Phoenix -2 and has rightfully gone higher.
And it’s going to continue to climb so I’m buying it now at -3 (paid four cents extra juice.)
My play:
Phx -3
Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-4
Review: Dipped back to one game under .500 when the Toronto/Phoenix game went Over.
Sometimes while I’m doing a write-up I’m tempted to end it by saying, “Forget EVERYTHING I just wrote, I’m going the opposite way of my analysis.”
Tor/Phx on Tuesday was one of those days.
I said the Over looked too good to be true, and went with the Under.
Should have went with my gut instead of my stats, the game easily sailed Over.
