RBD weighs multiple WNBA betting angles before settling on the Seattle/Las Vegas Under, backed by a Monday trend and a 2-10 record on Commissioner’s Cup double-digit home favorite totals.
Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces
A Commissioner’s Cup Pick on the Total
I like choice.
As a handicapper, I NEED choice to be successful.
I may not be able to give you the winner of the college football championship game but you give me a full slate of bowl games and I’ll find some weak numbers and give you some winners (7-1 last bowl season.)
You give me a full slate of 50 plus games on a Saturday and as an ex-bookmaker I’ll find the weak lines.
I like choice.
So when I’m going through my morning handicapping ritual I love when I have multiple games to choose from.
And that’s what I have today.
Unfortunately, they’re all ugly choices.
One of my two methods for picking totals, T1, is 6-6 overall, but one of the subcategories I track is just 1-4 on Unders, a solid Fade.
Today, it says the New York game against Connecticut goes Over.
BUT almost half of my losses this season have been in games in which I’ve used New York, which means I’m not getting a good read on them and should stay away until the numbers improve.
I’ve also got two Commissioner’s Cup games today with double-digit Favs, New York and Las Vegas.
If you’ve been following along, you know that in 2024, Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games were 4-1 ATS at Hm.
Last season, 2025, Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games were 6-2 ATS at Hm.
That’s a combined 10-3.
This year, they’re off to a 4-0 start, making it a combined 14-3. That’s 82% for a 3-year total.
Las Vegas qualifies tonight but they’re laying 16.
That’s a lot of points. And though Seattle’s one of the worst teams in the league they would have covered a 16-point spread in seven of their last ten games.
And the Aces are only 1-2 as Double Digit Favs this season.
New York is also a CC Double Digit Fav tonight.
But, they’re on the Rd.
CC DD Hm Favs are an 82% play.
CC DD Rd teams are an entirely different story.
In 2024 there was only one of them, the record was 0-1.
Last season, 2025, they were 1-5.
That’s a two year total of 1-6.
That’s an 85% Fade.
But to take advantage of it I’d have to use New York, which I’m trying to avoid.
So, like I said, I have choices.
But I don’t like any of them, for reasons stated above.
Maybe I should look at totals?
CC DD Hm Favs were 1-7 Ov/Un last season.
This year they’re 1-3.
That’s 2-10, 80%, combined over the last two seasons.
The number on tonight’s qualifying spot, Sea/Vegas is 161′. This is down from an opening 165, which means to take the Under I’d have to break my rule of not betting on totals where the line has moved three or more points against me.
Another choice, another unclear decision.
One other game qualified while I was going through my numbers this morning.
WF1 says Washington should be the Favorite tonight.
WF1 is 4-4 on Rd teams, not much of an edge but when I checked team specific numbers Washington is 0-1 in this spot.
Not a lot of data, and to Fade Washington I would have to use the Caitlin’s, who have lost three of their last four games.
And they’re 0-1 head-to-head against Wash this season.
And over the weekend there were rumors about Caitlin being traded to LA. As I wrote about in my last column, I try to avoid locker rooms in flux, teams with dissension and confusion.
Choices, choices choices.
Decisions, decisions, decisions.
So – what to do?
For the deciding factor for my pick today I’m going to my “Day of the Week” opinion on Mondays.
This season, Mondays are 2-4 Ov/Un, a 67% play.
This, added to the 2-10 record on CC DD Hm Favs Un noted above, puts me on Sea/LV Un, despite the more than three point differential between the opening line and the current one I’m stuck with because I didn’t to my handicapping earlier this morning.
Seattle is 3-9 Ov/Un all games, 1-5 on the Rd.
I hope I get another lazy effort from them on a Monday night Rd game tonight.
My play:
Sea/LV Un 161′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 6-8
Review:
Picked up a winner with Minnesota CC DD Hm Fav spot) on Saturday.
Left a unit on the table though when I got conservative and didn’t play the late game in the same spot, and it also covered.
UFL Recap: 2-0
I nailed the analysis in my write-up on Louis/St L. as the underdog Kings won SU.
Even better, Sunday morning I added the Over in the PredictEm forum.
And nailed that one, too.
I spent the first 8 weeks of the season in the profit zone before falling behind in weeks 9 and 10, putting me at 7-9.
But 2-0 in the semi-finals puts me back at 9-9 and gives me a chance to finish the season with a profit based on next Saturday’s championship game, IF I have a play on it and decide to bet it.
If I don’t have an article with a pick be sure to check the PredictEm Forum for updates on game day.
