RBD fades the surging Toronto expansion club and takes Washington at home in tonight’s WNBA matchup, backed by the return of the Asterisk Spot handicapping model.
Toronto at Washington Mystics
A Pick on the Spread
Short and sweet today, because I’m on the road.
But before I get to today’s buy is my final review on the NBA because I’m done for the season.
My last pick was in May. I shut it down after a 7-1 playoff run. I’ve been handicapping and charting the games anyway, so I can have a full season’s work of data to look at next year but I haven’t been playing anything. I saw a couple strong picks but resisted temptation, deciding the best thing to do is bank the profit from a 40-26 season, good for 60%.
But I had some strong stats so I decided to go one more play on game 4 of the Spurs/Knicks.
I bought the total under 217.
With 125 points scored at the half the game is on Facebook 250 and I thought I was dead in the water.
The game landed on 213.
NOW I’m done with the NBA season. With a record of 41-26, 61%.
NEXT!
My handicapping model for picking Wrong Favorites, WF2 says Toronto should be the favorite on the Rd in Washington tonight.
WF2 has a record of 7-3 on Rd teams.
A strong play ON, yes?
But I’m going the other way. WF2 has an overall record of 8-7, 1-4 on Hm teams 7-3 on Rd teams. My bet tonight is based on the premise that I think the Rd record is going to start heading in the direction of the Hm record, and start to even out.
Plus, I have this – the return of the Asterisk Spot.
One of my strongest plays over the last two years has been pretty rare in recent days. Tonight’s game qualifies with a Fade of Toronto. Rd teams in the Asterisk Spot afternoon are 1-2 so far this season.
Washington has been abysmal lately but I think they’re due to turn it around. Toronto has been playing far above expectations thus far and come into this one winning four of their last five SU, while Washington has lost three of their last five.
The Mystics are 0-2 as Favs this year, losing both games SU, so I’m sticking my neck out a little bit here with this pick, but if Washington is going to start turning the season round it has to start with a home game against a visiting expansion club.
The line on this one opened at Washington -2′, but Toronto money is coming in (like I said, Washington pretty much stinks) and I see it as low as -1′ now. The common number is -2.
I’m going to need every point I can get in this one so I’m going to wait just a little bit longer and see if it becomes -1 across the board.
My play:
Wash – (wait to buy)
Recap: 0-1
Record: 6-9
