RBD takes the Over in Saturday morning’s Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream WNBA matchup, riding the T1 model and a team-specific edge with the Dream despite some Saturday morning concerns.
Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream
A Pick on the Total
I’m not a fan of betting the side and total in the same game but I just may do it today.
And unfortunately, the picks involve the Indiana Fever.
Indiana, like New York, is one of the teams that I don’t seem to have a good handle on this season. Combined, they account for most of the losses I’ve taken on my record thus far.
Today, I’m going back to the same spot I used last night. My handicapping model T1 says this game goes Over the poster total.
After last night’s win with Tor/Con T1 is now 10-7. That’s 58.8%, the bar I use to decide if it’s a play I’m going to buy or not.
For team specific stats, Indiana has not qualified for a T1 Over so far this season.
Atlanta is 2-1 in this spot, so I get a little help there.
These two teams have met twice already this season, both games in Indiana. The results give me no help in trying to ‘cap the total on today’s contest.
Both meetings had a total of 173.
The first game saw 154 points scored for an Under by 19 points.
The second meeting saw 209 points scored for an Over by 36.
Like I said, no help from the two previous games.
Today’s game opened at 175′ and is already up to 176’/177. A couple of our sponsors still have it at 176′ so that’s what I grabbed it at.
Overall, Indiana’s 8-7 Ov/Un, Atlanta is 7-7.
One problem with playing the Over today.
The game is the Saturday morning opener.
Do WNBA teams – who are used to playing evening games – like having to get up early and play on Saturday morning?
I don’t know, but the record on Saturday morning openers is 1-4 on Overs.
Offering a little consolation is the fact that the one game that did go Over involved the Caitlin’s.
Looking at recent play, only two of Indiana’s last five games have gone Over today’s number.
That’s offset by Atlanta games going Over today’s number in four of their last five.
In the game that went under this season the Fever managed to hit just 34% on FG’s (12% lower than their season average) and just 29% on 3-pointers (5% lower than their season average.) I’m going to need Caitlin and Sophie to hit some threes today and improve on both of those averages.
I’m still taking a hard look at the side and may add it, or a prop bet to my card. If I do, I’ll add an update in the PredictEm Forum.
My play:
Ind/ATL Ov 176’
Recap: 1-0
Record: 8-11
Review:
Yesterday’s article opened with the question “Just how bad is the Connecticut Sun?”
Here’s how bad they are:
They lost again yesterday to further cement their place in the WNBA basement at 2-15.
They had a 15-point lead at Hm in the 4th quarter. And lost SU.
And, even with that 15-point lead they managed to fail to cover the spread as Hm Dogs.
They allowed Marina Mabry to tie a league record with nine made three pointers in a game, including FIVE in the fourth quarter (hey coach, maybe you want to think about switching up the defense on her??!!)
The Tempo were missing the engine that makes them go, leading scorer Brittney Sykes, yet STILL Connecticut couldn’t win or cover, at home.
As Jed Clampett would say, “Pit-i-ful.”
