RBD doubles up on Minnesota at Washington with a revenge angle on the side and a T1 model play on the total, betting the Lynx bounce back from a sub-par shooting night against the Mystics.
Minnesota Lynx at Washington Mystics
Picks on the Side and Total
It didn’t work for me last time I used it but my T1 model for picking Overs on the total still has a winning record on the season at 11-8. That’s 57.89, just a hair beneath the 58% cut off I use.
Close enough for tonight’s game though because one of the subcategories I track for T1 has a 6-3 record, good for 67%.
When I go team specific and see how these two did when, if, they’ve been in the T1 spot before I have Minnesota at 2-0 and Washington at 0-1.
I don’t usually dig deeper and look at the box scores from qualifying games but since Washington only had that one loss I wanted to take a look to see how they did when they were in this spot. The game was on May 27th.
They were on the Rd in Seattle.
The Mystics did their job for me, putting up 78 points as the Rd team, covering the number I needed them to get.
But Seattle only scored 64 at home and the game was lost due to what should be rare but unfortunately isn’t for the WNBA – a quarter where they scored in the single digits.
The Storm put up a pitiful 9 point Q2.
So I’ll look past the one loss for Washington and hope that the 2-0 Minnesota trend in this spot continues.
Checking standard stats I see that both teams have a winning record on the Ov/Un.
Minnesota is 9-8, Washington is 9-6.
Breaking that down into the Rd/Hm subcategory I see Minnesota is 4-4 Ov/Un on the Rd, no help there.
Washington is 4-1 at Hm, a nice number for those of us looking for an Over tonight.
This is game two of a H/A series.
Their last game was against each other, three days ago in Minnesota.
The total on that one was 169′ and it landed on 163, missing the Over by seven points.
The loss can be traced to a sub-par Q2 for the Mystics with a score of only 13 points.
The other three quarters saw them put up 22, 21, and 28 points, for an average of 23.5 points per quarter. So Q2 coming in at 10 points beneath that average is one reason the game stayed Under.
But it was really Minnesota that made anyone who took the Over in that one a loser.
The Lynx lost SU because they went just 4 for 21, 19% on three pointers.
Going into their last game in first place at 13-3, they lost, SU, to a Washington team with a .500 record. At home, in Minnesota!
You think they’re going to be out for revenge tonight on the Rd?
Hell yeah.
The Lynx are a perfect 8-0 ATS on the Rd.
Washington is just 3-3 ATS at Hm.
The Lynx have four losses on the season.
They lost to Atlanta and came back to beat them in the rematch. By 15 points.
They lost to Chicago and came back to beat them in the rematch. By 21 points.
They lost to Vegas and haven’t played a second game against them yet.
Tonight, Washington gets added to the list with Atlanta and Chicago, teams that Minnesota lost to and came back to beat, getting Double Digit revenge in the rematch.
The Lynx can’t possibly shoot any worse than they did in the previous meeting so I’m riding with the Rd team (a gut feel play) and the Over (based on my T1 model) tonight.
My plays:
Minnesota -9
Min/Wash Ov 168
Recap: 0-1
Record: 9-12
Review:
Gave a unit back with my last pick using Chi/Con Ov 169′.
Connecticut, the worst team in the league, did their part putting up 92 points for me. If I knew their team score before the game I would have made it a two unit play.
And I would have been screwed as Chicago shot an anemic 22% on FG’s and were even worse on three pointers.
From beyond the arc they shot a ridiculously disgusting 4-30. FOUR for THIRTY!!!
