RBD fades the T1 model on the Portland Fire at Chicago Sky total tonight, backed by perfect team-specific records and a 0-2 Friday night Under trend.
Portland Fire at Chicago Sky
A Pick on the Total
The Minnesota Lynx, the best team in the league, let me down in my last picks. They were losing SU for most of the game before a late 4th quarter comeback got them a win, but they failed to cover the spread.
And they cost me my play on the Over thanks to abysmal shooting, hitting just 27 of 71 on FG’s and an even more pathetic 8 for 30 from beyond the arc.
This puts my season at the lowest point ever, five games under .500. I had the deficit down to two games and have now lost three straight.
And it’s easy to see the reason why.
My buys are 99% dependent on the different handicapping mathematical models I use for sides and totals.
Here are the records:
WF1: 11-10
WF2: 8-12
T1: 20-22
T2: 17-16
The numbers are too tight. Three of the four are one game away from being .500.
I need separation, records I can bet ON or Fade.
And the subcategories are of no help.
WF1 is 3-2 at Hm, 8-8 on the Rd.
WF2 is 1-4 at Hm, 7-8 on the Rd.
T1 is 11-9 Over, 9-13 Under.
T2 is 0-1 Over, 17-15 Under.
On sides, the only spot that provides me a little separation is WF2 when it’s a Hm team, at 1-4.
For totals, the only play that is worth looking at is T1 Unders, which are worth a Fade at 9-13, good for 59%.
And that’s the play I’m using today.
T1 says tonight’s game between the Fire and the Sky stays Under the poster total.
T1 is 9-23 wait, that should be 9-13, a 59% Fade.
And the numbers get even better when I look at how these two teams have performed in this T1 spot previously this season.
Portland has been in this spot three times and is a perfect 0-3.
Chicago is 1-2.
And for a look at this play based on the day of the week (I don’t track most days but I do track Mondays, Fridays, and Sunday mornings) there have been two T1 Unders on Friday nights this season.
And again I get a perfect record at 0-2.
So my numbers say, “Fade Away.”
On the season, Portland is 10-8 Ov/Un, Chicago is 10-7.
Those numbers look okay for someone looking to buy the Over tonight.
Breaking them down into the subcategory of Hm/Rd the numbers are still decent.
Portland is 3-3 Ov/Un on the Rd.
Chicago is 5-4.
The line opened at 173′. Books are now split between 173/172′. As long as the number is moving in my favor I’ll wait a little longer to see if I can get the hook knocked off the 172.
My play:
Port/Chi Ov (wait to buy)
Recap: 0-2
Record: 9-14
So, as a handicapper, what do you do when things aren’t working. You have a choice – either take a few days off or change the way you’re handicapping.
Unlike most bettors I keep a lot of data on my bets. So I looked at the past 3 years to see what worked for me, hoping I can find something to switch to this season.
And I see that I’ve had success with props in the past.
The problem with props though is they take a lot of time to handicap and I can’t finish them in order to meet my morning submission deadline for articles.
So I’m posting this notice – be sure to start checking the PredictEm Forum on a daily basis ‘cuz I’m going to start adding props there.
