RBD takes the Under in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship between Las Vegas and New York, backed by a five-year history of low-scoring title games and T2 model edges.
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty
A Commissioner’s Cup Championship Pick on the Total
In anticipation of handicapping and looking for an edge on the upcoming Commissioner’s Cup Championship, I watched the last three games by both participants, the Aces and the Liberty.
Three games back they played each other, in Vegas.
I leaned Vegas on that one, believing they’re the better team, have the better coach, home court advantage, and a slight edge in desire.
I was wrong. NY 87, LV 76.
The Liberty won as the Dog and the game stayed Under.
Since that loss Vegas has gone 2-0, beating Dallas and Chicago.
After their win over the Aces, the Liberty has gone 0-2, losing to Seattle and then again in their last game to Golden State.
So a slight edge in momentum to Vegas BUT . . .
in the most important matchup for both teams in their last three games, the head-to-head matchup that was a preview of tonight’s championship game, New York got the win, at Vegas’s home court.
And their loss in their last game at GS came at the end of a four-game road trip, their longest of the season.
If it sounds like I’m looking for a reason to buy New York tonight you’re correct. I still think Vegas has a better team and better coach, but my gut-feel is that New York will be tough to beat at home tonight.
But then I saw that Vegas is 9-2 SU on the Rd this season. And they’re getting two points tonight, their first time as a Dog all season.
New York is 6-4 SU and ATS at Hm this season.
Those numbers have me thinking twice about taking the Liberty tonight.
So I took a look at the total.
How about the history of the Commissioner’s Cup Championship games – are they tight, defensive affairs or high scoring?
The number on this year’s game is 176′.
In the Five Years (a great Bowie tune) since the Cup was established the final scores were 133, 183, 145, 176, and 136.
We have three games that came in 30 points or fewer than this year’s total, one that stayed under by the hook, and one that went Over by 8′.
Those stats point to an Under.
This is the third Cup appearance for both teams, and they’re both 1-1. They faced each other in 2023, and New York won in a blowout, 82-63 (an Under by 31 points.)
For my personal models, the game qualifies for a T2 Under. The record for this spot is 17-13, a slight edge for the under at 57%, just one point lower than the 58% cut off I use for buying and recommending plays.
Team specific (how these teams played in the spot if they qualified this season) LV is 3-2 on the Under, NY 4-3.
Both stats give a slight edge to a low scoring affair tonight.
On the season, Vegas is 9-9 Ov/Un, NY 11-8.
LV is 5-5 on the Rd, Ov/Un.
NY is an eye-opening 2-7 Ov/Un at Hm.
Every stat I have points to the Under so I’m going to ride with the numbers.
The line opened at 171 and has steadily gone up.
The common number is 176 right now, which means anyone who bought the Over at 171 has a five point middle available if they take the Under today. That means there’ll likely be a buyback sometime before tip off, but as long as the lines moving in my favor I’ll wait a little bit longer. I see a couple of houses have already attached the hook to the 176 and are offering it at 176′ right now.
I’m still looking for a reason to take the Liberty tonight, so check the PredictEm forum later for updates.
And I’ll be doing some prop bet handicapping this morning. If I buy anything I’ll post it in the Forum.
My play:
LV/NY Un (wait to buy)
UPDATE: Between the time I started writing this article and completion, the line has dropped two points. I KNEW there’d be a buyback, unfortunately it started earlier than it usually does.
The common number right now is 174′ and I grabbed it before it gets any lower.
Recap: 2-0
Record: 12-14
Review:
I nailed both plays on Saturday, one from my article and one from, as promised, my post in the PredictEm Forum.
In the article, I did a write-up on the Atl/Sea game going Over 167′, using the Game Two of B2B’s trend.
I was in big trouble after just one quarter of play thanks to the Dream going just 4-20 on FG’s, 0-8 on 3-pointers (and not one, not two, but THREE 30 second violations by their offense.)
But they came to life in Q2 and the game landed on 195, clearing the number by 27′.
Later that day I posted a play on Over 178′ in LA/Ind. The Clark-less Fever put up 111 points and the game landed on 198, clearing the bar by 19′.
