RBD fades the T1 Under model and takes the Over on Sunday morning’s Seattle Storm at Washington Mystics matchup, backed by Sunday-game trends and a bounce-back angle on the Mystics.
Seattle Storm at Washington Mystics
A Pick on the Total
I’ve got a lot to choose from on Sunday’s four game card. Here are the games that qualify for the different handicapping models I use, and the records.
WF1 says the visiting Fever should be the Fav today in their game with the Aces.
Same with Chicago at Dallas.
WF1 record for Rd teams is 11-8, 58%.
A slight edge with that stat.
WF2 says Seattle should be the Fav at Washington.
WF2 record for Rd teams is 10-10. No edge.
For totals, my T1 model says Sea/Wash stays Under the posted number.
T1 has a record of 10-15 on Unders, a 65% edge when Fading it.
T2 says Ind/LV stays Under.
T2 has a record of 22-19 on Unders. No edge.
Looks like my strongest edge comes on Fading T1 and going Over in the Sea/Wash game.
But that’s a scary wager to make – Seattle sits at the bottom of the league in scoring at just 80 PPG.
Only Connecticut is worse and by just half a point.
Making this an even more difficult choice to take the Over – Washington is just above them at 81 PPG.
But that’s factored into the number – it opened at 160 and is dropping – I already see 159’/158.
It would be easier to take the Over if either or both of them had a lousy defense, too.
But Washington is in the top five, giving up just 84.5 PPG and Seattle’s just below them at 85.2.
And it doesn’t help that they’re the first game on a Sunday morning card. I’ve had conversations with other sports bettors who say days of the week have little significance when handicapping, but I’m telling you WNBA teams are not used to playing on Sunday mornings. Or any morning for that matter. And there’s slackers on running the offense – if you bet the Over in opening games on Sundays this season you’d be sitting with a 2-7 record. That’s a tough stat to go against.
But I’m going to.
Four of Seattle’s last five road games have landed on 157 or better. Today’s number is at 158 and dropping.
The stats on Washington’s side aren’t as pretty.
Three of the last five have gone Over today’s number but in their last game they only scored a hideous 49 points. That’s pretty ugly.
They’ve met twice this season, both games in Seattle. The first game saw 182 points scored.
Looks good for an Over today, yes?
But the second time they only combined for 142.
So, not too good, eh?.
Let’s go back to the day of the week and check their records for Sunday games.
All three of Seattle’s Sunday games have easily gone Over today’s number.
Three of Washington’s four Sunday games have gone Over today’s number.
No concerns there.
Still, that 49 points in the Mystics last game is a major concern while trying to justify putting money on an Over today.
Yes, it came against the number one defense in the league, the Golden State Valkyries, but that’s no excuse for shooting just 18 of 60 on FG’s and 3 for 24 on three pointers.
18 of 60??
3 for 34??!!
But, looking on the bright side of life, when you had numbers like those in your last game there’s only one way to go – UP!
Update: I was going to post this as a “wait to buy” because the number was dropping, but it’s starting to head back up so I’m grabbing it right now before it goes any higher.
My play:
Sea/Wash Ov 159′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 14-18
Review:
Picked up a winner when I was on the right side of Ind/Phx. The Fever covered as Rd Dogs.
A bit of a bittersweet win though – I declined to play the Over in Game Two of B2B spot (Indy played the night before) because of other stats and factors listed in the article.
And the game easily sailed Over.
Will I make that same mistake again today, when we have not one but TWO teams in the B2B spot?
Check the PredictEm Forum for the answers later today.
