RBD takes the Over on tonight’s Los Angeles Sparks at Chicago Sky WNBA matchup, backed by a perfect 0-7 fade record on Sparks road games in the T2 Under spot and a 3-0 T1 Over trend.
Los Angeles Sparks at Chicago Sky
A Pick on the Total
The morning starts out like every morning.
I’m sitting by the pool having a cup of green tea and some fruit, surrounded by my handicapping tools – multicolor pens, notebooks, and laptop, running every game on today’s card through the various handicapping models I use.
I see that the LA Sparks qualify for my T1 Over system.
T1 has a record of 12-13 on Overs.
No edge really.
It also qualifies for a T2 Under (a rare Head to Head battle between the two models.)
T2 has a record of 22-21 on Unders.
Again, no exploitable edge ON or Fading.
I’m looking at my charts when it occurs to me that LA seems to qualify an awful lot on the T2 model.
So I go to check their team specific number when they’re in this spot.
And this was when my day stopped being like every other morning.
LA’s record as a T2 Under is 2-12.
T2 has an overall record of 23-25.
Only four games have qualified for an Over and the record is 1-4, giving me a solid Fade when I get the next one.
The record on Unders is 22-21.
That means that of 43 games that have qualified, LA accounts for 32% of them.
This tells me that my calculations on LA are off, they shouldn’t qualify that many times.
But that’s okay because it’s usable data.
At 2-12 I have an 85% Fade.
Digging deeper though I spotted a perfect stat.
See if you can see it for yourself, here’s what the chart looks like: Date, Hm/Rd, W/L (W if the T2 Un game stayed Under, L if it went Over)
5-13 Hm W
5-17 Hm L
5-21 Rd L
5-23 Rd L
6-2 Hm W
6-5 Hm L
6-7 Hm L
6-13 Rd L
6-17 Hm L
6-21 Hm L
6-25 Rd L
6-27 Rd L
7-13 Rd L
7-15 Rd L
See it?
Look at the two W’s.
Both came at Hm, which means on the Rd I have a perfect record of 0-7 that says stick with the Over until it loses.
Yes, Reversion Toward the Mean is more than due to start setting in but I’ve already banked a few units using this spot so I’m using it again today.
As noted above LA/Chi also qualifies as a T1 Over.
Looking at team specific stats I see LA has qualified for this spot three times.
And again I get perfection, they’re 3-0 to the Over.
Chicago is 0-1 Ov/Un in this spot.
The line opened at 183′ and dropped down to 182′.
I see 183 starting to show up again so I’m buying it now at the current number.
Four of LA’s last five games have gone Over tonight’s number.
Four of LA’s last five Rd games have gone Over tonight’s number. The only one that didn’t was when they played the number one defense in the league, the Golden State Valkyries.
Three of Chicago’s last five games have gone Over tonight’s number, with one missing by just a half point.
Five of Chicago’s last five Hm games have gone Over tonight’s number.
And. . . Chicago won my last game for me, when I used them on an Over Wednesday morning.
And you know I like to stick with what works.
My play:
LA/Chi Ov 182′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 17-18
Review:
I used Sea/Chi Over 171 on Wednesday morning in a Kid’s Camp game.
The game landed on 185 for Double Digit W.
