Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders
Thursday, August 13, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Allegiant Stadium
This is the game with the most star power on the Thursday night preseason slate, and that’s because of one man: Fernando Mendoza, the number one overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. This is his Raiders debut.
The Raiders are at home as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 40.5, which is the highest total on the entire Week 1 preseason board. That number opened at 39.5 and has been bet up a full point in the days leading into the game. Line movement in preseason is usually driven by sharp money that sees something the public doesn’t, and this one’s been moving in one direction.
Here’s what the sharps are looking at.
Fernando Mendoza is expected to see significant snaps in this game. Head coach Klint Kubiak has publicly said Kirk Cousins is QB1 going into the season, but Cousins is likely to get one series and hit the bench. That leaves Mendoza and Aidan O’Connell to soak up the rest of the quarterback reps, and Mendoza is the guy everyone is going to be watching. When the number one overall pick is on the field playing meaningful snaps in preseason, offensive numbers tend to go up. It’s not just about the quarterback’s talent — it’s about how the offense responds when a young quarterback starts making mistakes, throwing hero balls, and forcing the pace.
On the Arizona side, this is the Cardinals’ second preseason game. They played Carolina last Thursday in the Hall of Fame Game and lost 33-30. What that means for us is two things. First, they’ve already got 60 minutes of live game speed under their belts, which usually leads to sharper execution in game two. Second, rookie quarterback Carson Beck went 15-for-19 for 188 yards and a touchdown against Carolina, which means head coach Mike LaFleur has a young quarterback he’s going to want to keep evaluating.
Now here’s the wrinkle. Both head coaches are in their first NFL preseason. There’s zero coaching data to lean on. Klint Kubiak and Mike LaFleur have never coached an NFL preseason game before. That normally makes me nervous about betting a total, because you’re flying blind on how each coach handles game management, starter minutes, and second-half pace.
But this game has enough other data points to make up for that.
The Cardinals put up 30 points last week. The Raiders are debuting the number one overall pick. Both coaches want to establish their offensive identity in front of the fan base and their own front offices. Neither is walking into this game trying to score 10 points and get out of town.
And there’s one more thing worth noting. Both teams are indoor teams playing an indoor game. Allegiant Stadium is a fast track. Domes and retractable roofs traditionally play toward the Over in the NFL, and preseason games in domes tend to be even more offensive-friendly than regular season games because there’s less situational football and more straight go-out-and-execute.
I looked at the side too. Raiders -2.5 at home in Mendoza’s debut has legitimate energy behind it — the crowd is going to be juiced up, the young quarterback is going to want to prove something, and Kubiak is going to want to send a message in his first preseason game as a head coach. But a 2.5-point preseason spread can flip on any garbage-time possession, and I’d rather ride the total where the money and the storylines both point in the same direction.
The Pick: Cardinals/Raiders Over 40.5
