Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders
Friday, August 14, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Northwest Stadium
Friday night’s preseason slate kicks off with what might be the sneakiest total play of the week.
The Dolphins are on the road as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 36.5. Both those numbers have moved from the openers. The Dolphins opened at -1.5 and got bet up to -2.5, which is chalk moving toward chalk. But more importantly, the total opened at 37.5 and has been bet down a full point to 36.5. That’s sharp money on the Under, and it lines up with everything else I’m seeing in this game.
Let me lay out the case.
Dan Quinn is entering his third year as the Commanders head coach. His preseason totals record with Washington sits at 3-3, so nothing screaming there. But his career preseason totals record — combining his time in Atlanta and Washington — is 10-16-1 to the Under. That’s a 61.5% Under hit rate over 27 games. His stint with the Falcons from 2015 to 2020 was even more extreme at 7-13-1, right around 65% Under. Quinn is a defensive-minded head coach and he treats the preseason like it’s a defensive scrimmage.
That’s the coaching baseline for the home team.
Now on the visiting side, this is Jeff Hafley’s Dolphins debut. Miami fired Mike McDaniel after a 7-10 season, and Hafley — the former Green Bay defensive coordinator and the former Boston College head coach — takes over. He’s a defensive-minded coach in his first NFL head coaching job. No NFL preseason data to lean on, but the profile matters. Defensive coaches in their first preseason opener with a new team tend to play it conservative. They want to see clean tackling, disciplined play, and fundamentals. What they don’t tend to want is a 45-point track meet.
Both head coaches are wired the same way. Both are going to be evaluating rather than pressing the accelerator.
Now here’s the wrinkle that pushes this play from lean to buy.
The Dolphins and Commanders held joint practices earlier this week, Wednesday and Thursday, before Friday’s game. When two teams practice together in the days leading up to a preseason matchup, coaches often reduce their starter snaps in the actual game because those starters already got their “good on good” work during practice. Both Quinn and Hafley have publicly emphasized how much value they got from the joint sessions, which almost always translates to shorter appearances from first-team offenses on game night.
Less starter snaps means more backup snaps, and backup snaps in preseason usually mean punts, three-and-outs, and stalled drives.
I’ll add one more layer. The Commanders had just 47 red zone targets in the 2025 regular season, which was the fewest in the entire NFL. Their offense had a hard time even getting into scoring position last year, and while Jayden Daniels is healthy and locked in as the starter, he’s likely to see only a series or two. That leaves Marcus Mariota or David Blough — or whoever wins the backup competition — trying to sustain drives against Hafley’s defensive front. That’s a recipe for Unders in preseason.
I looked at the side too. Some of the sharp folks I read have been flagging Washington +2.5 as a value play, and I can see the argument — the home team, a bit of value on the pointspread number, and a Dolphins team still figuring out the pecking order. But I don’t need to guess on a preseason spread when the total gives me a cleaner path with more data behind it.
The Pick: Dolphins/Commanders Under 36.5
