Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Friday, August 28, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field
Friday night’s nationally televised preseason finale at Lincoln Financial Field has real value on the road underdog, and the reasoning comes down to the quality of the two teams’ backup quarterback rotations.
The Eagles are 2.5-point home favorites over the Bengals with a total that has dropped from 38.5 down to 36.5 as sharp money has come in on the Under. That total movement is worth noting — a 2-point drop tells you the market has been reading a low-scoring backup-heavy game. The spread has been more stable, but the situational factors point to real value on the visitors getting the points.
Let’s start with the confirmed QB rotations.
Joe Burrow will not play. Zac Taylor confirmed this earlier in the week. Jalen Hurts also will not play — in fact, Hurts hasn’t taken a single snap this preseason as Nick Sirianni has been protecting him through both weeks and prioritizing joint-practice work over live game reps. Both starting quarterbacks are sitting the finale, which means Friday night’s game will be decided by the backup rotations on both sides.
And this is where the Bengals have a decisive edge.
Cincinnati’s backup room is being led by Josh Johnson, a 14-year NFL veteran quarterback who’s seen essentially every defensive scheme in professional football. Johnson started Week 2 against the Bears and delivered a legitimate performance — two touchdown passes that helped Cincinnati take a 17-9 halftime lead on the way to a convincing 27-9 win. The Bengals covered as 3.5-point home underdogs in that game, showing that their backup offense can execute even against Bears defenders who were playing to earn roster spots.
The Eagles’ backup situation is more complicated. Andy Dalton, the presumed second-string quarterback, played the first three possessions in Week 2 at New England and looked completely out of rhythm — 3-of-10 for 44 yards. That’s a terrible start against a Patriots defense that was also running backup rotations. Tanner McKee, the third-string quarterback, came in and lit it up: 16-of-22 for 173 yards and two touchdowns. That’s the good news for Philadelphia — McKee has been genuinely impressive.
The bad news is that in a typical Nick Sirianni preseason finale, Andy Dalton gets the first-half reps and McKee doesn’t come in until late. That means the first two-plus quarters of Friday night’s game are going to be Andy Dalton — coming off a 3-for-10 stinker — trying to move the Eagles offense against a Bengals defense that has been solid throughout preseason. Cincinnati’s backup defense held Chicago to 9 points last week, and their pass rush has been generating pressure against second-string offensive lines.
That matchup — Andy Dalton against Bengals backup defenders — is the entire game. Cincinnati has the more established backup QB, more offensive momentum coming in, and the demonstrated ability to cover as an underdog in exactly this profile.
The preseason records tell the same story. Cincinnati is 2-0 with an emphatic 27-9 win in the most recent game. Philadelphia is 0-2 with their most recent game being a 24-21 loss as a road favorite. That’s a nine-point swing in favor of the Bengals when you look at how each team has performed against the spread over their last game apiece.
Sirianni’s approach to preseason has always been to protect his starters and evaluate depth. That’s a defensible strategy, but it comes with the trade-off that his preseason record consistently disappoints. His career preseason ATS record is one of the worst among active NFL head coaches — his backups don’t get enough live-fire reps to build the kind of chemistry Bengals backups have been developing throughout August.
The 2.5-point spread is a gift given the coaching and QB situation. Getting a Bengals team that has been winning and covering all August against an Eagles team that has been losing and failing to cover is exactly the value spot to target.
I looked at the total too. The drop from 38.5 to 36.5 gives credence to the Under case, and both starting quarterbacks sitting typically produces low-scoring games. There’s a real case for the Under. But the side has the clearer read given how divergent these two teams’ preseason performances have been.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +2.5
