New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Sunday, September 13, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Ford Field
Detroit is a 7-point home favorite over New Orleans on Sunday afternoon at Ford Field. The total sits at 49.5. Seven points is a lot in Week 1, and I think the Saints have real value getting it.
Two things about the Lions worth understanding heading into this game.
First, Drew Petzing is Detroit’s new offensive coordinator. John Morton got fired mid-season last year after Dan Campbell took the playcalling away from him. Petzing spent the last three years running Arizona’s offense — different system, different philosophy, different quarterback. He’s installing something new around Jared Goff and there’s going to be timing issues, sync problems, and calls that don’t fit the personnel yet. That happens with every new coordinator, especially in Week 1.
Second, Kelvin Sheppard is entering his second year as Detroit’s defensive coordinator with his job under real pressure. His 2025 unit was a mess. They gave up big plays, couldn’t stop the run late in the year, and multiple Detroit insiders openly wrote he should have been fired alongside Morton. The Lions kept him, but that’s a defense being coached by someone fighting to save his job with a scheme that got exposed all last year.
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That’s the team laying 7 in Week 1.
Now the Saints.
Tyler Shough is entering his second season after a rookie year that ended with him going 5-4 as a starter and setting the Saints’ rookie passing record with 2,384 yards and a 91.3 rating. He came into the league as a 26-year-old with seven college seasons under his belt, which is unusual for a rookie QB, but it also means he’s mentally further along than most second-year passers. Kellen Moore built the entire offense around him during the offseason.
The Saints signed Travis Etienne Jr. to lead the backfield — 4 years, $48 million after he ran for 1,107 yards last year in Jacksonville. Chris Olave is coming off a career year (100 catches, 1,163 yards, 9 touchdowns) and even with questionable Week 1 status (illness at Wednesday practice), he’s expected to try to play. The Saints have real offensive pieces.
Dan Campbell is going to have his team ready. That’s what he does. But Week 1 games at Ford Field for the Lions against sub-.500 opponents aren’t always as clean as the market prices them. Last year Detroit was favored to blow out multiple opponents at home and either failed to cover or found themselves in dogfights.
7 points assumes the Lions are still the team that went 15-2 in 2024. They’re not. They’re the team that fell apart down the stretch of 2025 and had to fire their offensive coordinator. The Saints have a rebuilt offense, a Year 2 quarterback with real growth, and a coach in Kellen Moore who has spent an entire offseason preparing for exactly this kind of matchup.
Getting a full touchdown feels like the right side.
The Pick: New Orleans Saints +7. Bet your Week 1 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a sweet 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when using bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
