Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, September 13, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati is a 3.5-point home favorite over Tampa Bay with a total of 50.5. My play is the Bengals to cover.
Joe Burrow spent all of last season fighting a Grade 3 turf toe injury he suffered in Week 2. The Bengals went 1-8 without him. When he came back in late November, they went 5-3 down the stretch with Burrow throwing for 1,620 yards and 15 touchdowns over six games. That’s the version of Cincinnati that shows up Sunday, and it’s the version that has spent all offseason waiting to correct what happened in 2025.
The reason the Bengals went 6-11 wasn’t just the Burrow injury. Their defense was broken. They ranked bottom-10 in sacks, they had two rookie starting linebackers who got picked apart in coverage, and Trey Hendrickson only played seven games. So Cincinnati went out and spent real money to fix it. Boye Mafe came over from Seattle on a three-year, $60 million deal to give the Bengals a legitimate pass rusher opposite Hendrickson. Jonathan Allen signed a two-year, $25 million contract to fortify the interior. Bryan Cook got three years and $40.3 million to solidify the secondary. That’s an offseason focused specifically on the exact problems that cost them games last year.
On the other sideline, Tampa Bay is dealing with real questions. Mike Evans is gone. He signed with the 49ers after 12 seasons in Tampa averaging nine touchdowns a year. That’s a specific loss the Bucs can’t easily replace. Emeka Egbuka is a real player entering his second year, and Chris Godwin remains dangerous when healthy, but Godwin is coming off a broken ankle and is now 10 years into his career. Jalen McMillan is coming off an injury-shortened 2025 season. Tez Johnson is dealing with a groin injury. The receiver room isn’t the same firepower Mayfield had access to over the last few years.
The Bucs also have a new offensive coordinator. Zac Robinson came over from Atlanta where he ran a Rams-influenced play-action scheme. That’s a real system change from what Tampa was running. First game with a new coordinator, first game without your longtime WR1, on the road against a rebuilt defense — that’s a lot of variables all pointing the same direction.
Todd Bowles is a good coach and the Bucs have been consistently competitive. Baker Mayfield is playing for a new contract and will be sharp. This game will not be a blowout. But the direction of value comes down to which team has fewer question marks in Week 1, and that’s clearly Cincinnati.
Burrow at Paycor Stadium in Week 1 with a healthy Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, against a Bucs defense that hasn’t fixed its own issues from 2025, should score enough to win by more than a field goal. Chase alone is capable of a 150-yard, two-touchdown game against any defense. Higgins provides the red zone target that took Bengals’ offense to another level when they had both healthy.
3.5 in this spot is right at the projected margin. Bengals win 27-20 or 28-21, both of which cover.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
