Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 13, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Lucas Oil Stadium
Baltimore is a 3.5-point road favorite over Indianapolis with a total of 48.5. My play is the Ravens to cover.
The Colts are starting Daniel Jones on Sunday. That’s the sentence that decides the game. Jones tore his Achilles on December 7 last year in the Colts’ Week 14 loss to Jacksonville. Achilles surgery followed. Nine months later, he’s back on the field for the first time. He didn’t play a single snap in the preseason. His mobility, one of the strengths that made him effective in Steichen’s offense last year (24 total touchdowns in 13 games, including 5 rushing), is a genuine question mark. The market has priced this game as if Jones is a healthy Week 1 starter. He isn’t.
Now factor in what’s on the other side of the field.
Baltimore signed Trey Hendrickson away from Cincinnati this offseason. Hendrickson has been one of the top pass rushers in the league for three straight years. He now joins a Ravens defense that already had legitimate pieces up front. Against a quarterback in his first live game action in nine months, coming off Achilles surgery, that’s a nightmare matchup. Jones’s ability to escape pressure and extend plays is directly tied to trust in his repaired Achilles, and that trust doesn’t come back in one game.
The Colts’ response will be to lean on Jonathan Taylor and the run game. That makes sense, but it also means they’re playing a limited version of their offense from the jump. Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren are real players, but the reads and throws Jones was making in October and November of 2025 might not be available to him yet in Week 1 of 2026.
Lamar Jackson is on the opposite side of the equation. He’s fully healthy for the first time in a long time. Derrick Henry is coming back for another season with the Ravens as their power back. Zay Flowers gives Lamar a legitimate downfield weapon. The Ravens’ 2025 offense averaged 24.9 points per game with Lamar dealing with injuries. Those numbers should climb this year.
The one thing that makes me pause is that Jesse Minter is making his head-coaching debut for Baltimore. First-year head coaches on the road in Week 1 can produce ugly starts. But Minter is a defensive-minded coach, and his defense should be ready to force turnovers from a quarterback still finding his rhythm. That’s where the game gets decided.
3.5 in this spot is a fair price for the market’s uncertainty about Minter as a first-time head coach. But the injury asymmetry at quarterback is the bigger story. Ravens win by 7-10.
The Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3.5
