Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 27, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium
Cincinnati is a 3.5-point road favorite over Pittsburgh with a total of 42.5. My play is the Under.
Both teams’ recent trends and Week 1-2 performances point in the same direction. The Under has hit in 7 of the Bengals’ last 10 games and in 6 of the Steelers’ last 10 games. That’s a combined 13-of-20 across both franchises’ recent history. When two teams with strong Under tendencies face each other in a divisional matchup, the compound effect on the final score typically shows up.
Consider what both defenses just did. Cincinnati’s Week 2 defense held C.J. Stroud and the Texans to just 6 points. Six. That’s the kind of shutdown performance that gets teams into the AFC playoff picture. Anchored by Dexter Lawrence II and a rebuilt front seven featuring Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen, and Bryan Cook, this Bengals defense is playing at a level that will consistently limit opposing offenses.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been similarly elite. Through two games, the Steelers have allowed just 16 total points — combined. They held the Falcons to 13 and the Patriots to 20. That’s a defense that gets home to the quarterback and doesn’t allow big plays. Against a Bengals offense that has real weapons (Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Chase Brown), the Steelers’ defensive scheme will produce sacks, three-and-outs, and short-field opportunities that Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been able to convert into points.
The specific offensive issues on Pittsburgh’s side are the biggest reason to lean Under. The Steelers scored on just 8.3% of their drives last week — tied for worst in the NFL. They scored only 3 points against New England. Aaron Rodgers is playing but the offensive line is banged up and the receiver room can’t consistently create separation. Against a Bengals defense that just dominated Houston, Pittsburgh will struggle to hit even 14 points.
Cincinnati’s own offense hasn’t been putting up 30+ points either. They scored 31 in Week 1 vs Tampa Bay but only 20 last week against Houston. Against a Steelers defense that has been dominant, expect the Bengals to hit 17-24 points. Combined output of 20-24 for Cincinnati and 10-14 for Pittsburgh puts us at 30-38 total points. Well under 42.5.
Divisional matchups between these two teams have historically been low-scoring. Both coaches game-plan aggressively for defense in AFC North rivalry games, and the physical style of play produces stalled drives, punts, and field position battles rather than shootouts. Home team won both meetings last year, but neither game came close to 43 total points.
Realistic outcomes: Bengals 20, Steelers 13 (33 total); Bengals 23, Steelers 10 (33 total); Bengals 24, Steelers 17 (41 total); Steelers 20, Bengals 17 (37 total). Three of four scenarios stay under 42.5. The fourth requires both offenses to click, which contradicts what both defenses have shown.
The Pick: Bengals/Steelers Under 42.5
